2,637 research outputs found
Patterns of Scalable Bayesian Inference
Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand
for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an
excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge.
In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on
varying assumptions about model structure, underlying computational resources,
and the importance of asymptotic correctness. As a result, there is a zoo of
ideas with few clear overarching principles.
In this paper, we seek to identify unifying principles, patterns, and
intuitions for scaling Bayesian inference. We review existing work on utilizing
modern computing resources with both MCMC and variational approximation
techniques. From this taxonomy of ideas, we characterize the general principles
that have proven successful for designing scalable inference procedures and
comment on the path forward
Real-time Semiparametric Regression via Sequential Monte Carlo
We develop and describe online algorithms for performing real-time
semiparametric regression analyses. Earlier work on this topic is in Luts,
Broderick & Wand (J. Comput. Graph. Statist., 2014) where online mean field
variational Bayes was employed. In this article we instead develop sequential
Monte Carlo approaches to circumvent well-known inaccuracies inherent in
variational approaches. Even though sequential Monte Carlo is not as fast as
online mean field variational Bayes, it can be a viable alternative for
applications where the data rate is not overly high. For Gaussian response
semiparametric regression models our new algorithms share the online mean field
variational Bayes property of only requiring updating and storage of sufficient
statistics quantities of streaming data. In the non-Gaussian case accurate
real-time semiparametric regression requires the full data to be kept in
storage. The new algorithms allow for new options concerning accuracy/speed
trade-offs for real-time semiparametric regression
Sequential Gaussian Processes for Online Learning of Nonstationary Functions
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating
functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in
real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive
choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility
and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model
suffers from several drawbacks: i) Conventional GP inference scales
with respect to the number of observations; ii) updating a GP model
sequentially is not trivial; and iii) covariance kernels often enforce
stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary
covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these
issues, we propose an online sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit mixtures
of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for fast,
distributed inference. By formulating hyperparameter optimization as a
multi-armed bandit problem, we accelerate mixing for real time inference. Our
approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for
online GP estimation in the context of prediction for simulated non-stationary
data and hospital time series data
PASS-GLM: polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for scalable Bayesian GLM inference
Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson
regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse
data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow
coherent estimates of uncertainty, incorporation of prior information, and
sharing of power across experiments via hierarchical models. In practice,
however, the approximate Bayesian methods necessary for inference have either
failed to scale to large data sets or failed to provide theoretical guarantees
on the quality of inference. We propose a new approach based on constructing
polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs (PASS-GLM). We
demonstrate that our method admits a simple algorithm as well as trivial
streaming and distributed extensions that do not compound error across
computations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of point (MAP)
estimates, the approximate posterior, and posterior mean and uncertainty
estimates. We validate our approach empirically in the case of logistic
regression using a quadratic approximation and show competitive performance
with stochastic gradient descent, MCMC, and the Laplace approximation in terms
of speed and multiple measures of accuracy -- including on an advertising data
set with 40 million data points and 20,000 covariates.Comment: In Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference on Neural Information
Processing Systems (NIPS 2017). v3: corrected typos in Appendix
Bayesian Conditional Density Filtering
We propose a Conditional Density Filtering (C-DF) algorithm for efficient
online Bayesian inference. C-DF adapts MCMC sampling to the online setting,
sampling from approximations to conditional posterior distributions obtained by
propagating surrogate conditional sufficient statistics (a function of data and
parameter estimates) as new data arrive. These quantities eliminate the need to
store or process the entire dataset simultaneously and offer a number of
desirable features. Often, these include a reduction in memory requirements and
runtime and improved mixing, along with state-of-the-art parameter inference
and prediction. These improvements are demonstrated through several
illustrative examples including an application to high dimensional compressed
regression. Finally, we show that C-DF samples converge to the target posterior
distribution asymptotically as sampling proceeds and more data arrives.Comment: 41 pages, 7 figures, 12 table
- …