Prior Day Effect in Forecasting Daily Natural Gas Flow from Monthly Data

Many needs exist in the energy industry where measurement is monthly yet daily values are required. The process of disaggregation of low frequency measurement to higher frequency values has been presented in this literature. Also, a novel method that accounts for prior-day weather impacts in the disaggregation process is presented, even though prior-day impacts are not directly recoverable from monthly data. Having initial daily weather and gas flow data, the weather and flow data are aggregated to generate simulated monthly weather and consumption data. Linear regression models can be powerful tools for parametrization of monthly/daily consumption models and will enable accurate disaggregation. Two-, three-, four-, and six-parameter linear regression models are built. RMSE and MAPE are used as means for assessing the performance of the proposed approach. Extensive comparisons between the monthly/daily gas consumption forecasts show higher accuracy of the results when the effect of prior-day weather inputs are considered

Supporting high penetrations of renewable generation via implementation of real-time electricity pricing and demand response

The rollout of smart meters raises the prospect that domestic customer electrical demand can be responsive to changes in supply capacity. Such responsive demand will become increasingly relevant in electrical power systems, as the proportion of weather-dependent renewable generation increases, due to the difficulty and expense of storing electrical energy. One method of providing response is to allow direct control of customer devices by network operators, as in the UK 'Economy 7' and 'White Meter' schemes used to control domestic electrical heating. However, such direct control is much less acceptable for loads such as washing machines, lighting and televisions. This study instead examines the use of real-time pricing of electricity in the domestic sector. This allows customers to be flexible but, importantly, to retain overall control. A simulation methodology for highlighting the potential effects of, and possible problems with, a national implementation of real-time pricing in the UK domestic electricity market is presented. This is done by disaggregating domestic load profiles and then simulating price-based elastic and load-shifting responses. Analysis of a future UK scenario with 15 GW wind penetration shows that during low-wind events, UK peak demand could be reduced by 8-11 GW. This could remove the requirement for 8-11 GW of standby generation with a capital cost of £2.6 to £3.6 billion. Recommended further work is the investigation of improved demand-forecasting and the price-setting strategies. This is a fine balance between giving customers access to plentiful, cheap energy when it is available, but increasing prices just enough to reduce demand to meet the supply capacity when this capacity is limited

Revisiting the Merit-Order Effect of Renewable Energy Sources

An on-going debate in the energy economics and power market community has raised the question if energy-only power markets are increasingly failing due to growing feed-in shares from subsidized renewable energy sources (RES). The short answer to this is: No, they are not failing. Energy-based power markets are, however, facing several market distortions, namely from the gap between the electricity volume traded at day-ahead markets versus the overall electricity consumption as well as the (wrong) regulatory assumption that variable RES generation, i.e., wind and photovoltaic (PV), truly have zero marginal operation costs. In this paper we show that both effects over-amplify the well-known merit-order effect of RES power feed-in beyond a level that is explainable by underlying physical realities, i.e., thermal power plants being willing to accept negative electricity prices to be able to stay online due to considerations of wear & tear and start-stop constraints. We analyze the impacts of wind and PV power feed-in on the day-ahead market for a region that is already today experiencing significant feed-in tariff (FIT)-subsidized RES power feed-in, the EPEX German-Austrian market zone ($\approx\,$20% FIT share). Our analysis shows that, if the necessary regulatory adaptations are taken, i.e., increasing the day-ahead market's share of overall load demand and using the true marginal costs of RES units in the merit-order, energy-based power markets can remain functional despite high RES power feed-in.Comment: Working Paper (9 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables) - Some revisions since last version (10 February 2014). (Under 2nd review for IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

Measuring the impact of market coupling on the Italian electricity market using ELFO++

This paper evaluates the impact on the Italian electricity market of replacing the current explicit auction mechanism with market coupling. Maximizing the use of the cross-border interconnection capacity, market coupling increases the level of market integration and facilitates the access to low-cost generation by consumers located in high-cost generation countries. Thus, it is expected that a high-priced area such as Italy could greatly benefit from the introduction of this mechanism. In this paper, the welfare benefits are estimated under alternative market scenarios for 2012, employing the optimal dispatch model ELFO++. The results of the simulations suggest that the improvement in social surplus is likely to be significant, especially when market fundamentals are tight.Market coupling; market integration; Italian day-ahead electricity market.

Electricity network scenarios for 2020

This report presents a set of scenarios for the development of the electricity supply industry in Great Britain in the years to 2020. These scenarios illustrate the varied sets of background circumstances which may influence the industry over the coming years – including political and regulatory factors, the strength of the economy and the level to which environmentally-driven restrictions and opportunities influence policy and investment decisions. Previous work by the authors (Elders et al, 2006) has resulted in a set of six scenarios illustrating possible developments in the electricity industry in the period up to 2050. While such scenarios are valuable in gauging the long-term direction of the electricity industry and its economic and environmental consequences, shorter-range scenarios are useful in assessing the steps necessary to achieve these long-range destinations, and to determine their relationship to current trends, policies and targets. In this chapter, a set of medium-range scenarios focused on the year 2020 is developed and described. These scenarios are designed to be consistent both with the current state of the electricity supply industry in Great Britain, and with the achievement of the ultimate electricity generation, supply and utilisation infrastructure and patterns described in each of the 2050 scenarios. The consequences of these scenarios in terms of the emissions of carbon dioxide are evaluated and compared with other predictions. The SuperGen 2020 scenarios described in this report were developed as a collaborative effort between the SuperGen project team and the ITI-Energy Networks Project team both based at the University of Strathclyde

The renewable energy and energy efficiency potential of Waitakere City : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Technology in Energy Management at Massey University

Electricity restrictions and blackouts have occurred in Waitakere City in the past and are likely to occur again in the future unless the city can become more self reliant by meeting, at least in part, the increasing energy requirements for what is one of the fastest growing cities in New Zealand. In this study the potentials for energy conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energy resources have been broadly quantified and assessed using desktop analysis of publicly available data for stationary final use energy systems (i.e. excluding transportation) within the geographical area of Waitakere City and adjoining waters. It was found that energy efficiency and energy conservation measures can consistently and predictably achieve overall energy savings and reduce daily and seasonal peak demand. The best renewable energy resource potential exists with solar and geothermal for heating applications and wave, offshore and inshore wind and tidal currents for electricity generation. There is very limited potential for hydro and bioenergy systems beyond what already exists. PV solar and land based wind power generation are currently only feasible for limited off-grid applications. This scoping study confirms the achievability of the vision expressed in Waitakere City Council's "Long Term Council Community Plan" (LTCCP) that by 2020 " Waitakere City will be an energy cell, not an energy sink. Air quality supports good health". A range of flagship projects have been identified to progress the achievement of this vision. Waitakere City Council can use this report as part of the development of a comprehensive energy management plan

The renewable energy and energy efficiency potential of Waitakere City : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Technology in Energy Management at Massey University

Electricity restrictions and blackouts have occurred in Waitakere City in the past and are likely to occur again in the future unless the city can become more self reliant by meeting, at least in part, the increasing energy requirements for what is one of the fastest growing cities in New Zealand. In this study the potentials for energy conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energy resources have been broadly quantified and assessed using desktop analysis of publicly available data for stationary final use energy systems (i.e. excluding transportation) within the geographical area of Waitakere City and adjoining waters. It was found that energy efficiency and energy conservation measures can consistently and predictably achieve overall energy savings and reduce daily and seasonal peak demand. The best renewable energy resource potential exists with solar and geothermal for heating applications and wave, offshore and inshore wind and tidal currents for electricity generation. There is very limited potential for hydro and bioenergy systems beyond what already exists. PV solar and land based wind power generation are currently only feasible for limited off-grid applications. This scoping study confirms the achievability of the vision expressed in Waitakere City Council's "Long Term Council Community Plan" (LTCCP) that by 2020 " Waitakere City will be an energy cell, not an energy sink. Air quality supports good health". A range of flagship projects have been identified to progress the achievement of this vision. Waitakere City Council can use this report as part of the development of a comprehensive energy management plan