Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Tensor Representation in High-Frequency Financial Data for Price Change Prediction

Nowadays, with the availability of massive amount of trade data collected, the dynamics of the financial markets pose both a challenge and an opportunity for high frequency traders. In order to take advantage of the rapid, subtle movement of assets in High Frequency Trading (HFT), an automatic algorithm to analyze and detect patterns of price change based on transaction records must be available. The multichannel, time-series representation of financial data naturally suggests tensor-based learning algorithms. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of two multilinear methods for the mid-price prediction problem against other existing methods. The experiments in a large scale dataset which contains more than 4 millions limit orders show that by utilizing tensor representation, multilinear models outperform vector-based approaches and other competing ones.Comment: accepted in SSCI 2017, typos fixe

The Evolution of Neural Network-Based Chart Patterns: A Preliminary Study

A neural network-based chart pattern represents adaptive parametric features, including non-linear transformations, and a template that can be applied in the feature space. The search of neural network-based chart patterns has been unexplored despite its potential expressiveness. In this paper, we formulate a general chart pattern search problem to enable cross-representational quantitative comparison of various search schemes. We suggest a HyperNEAT framework applying state-of-the-art deep neural network techniques to find attractive neural network-based chart patterns; These techniques enable a fast evaluation and search of robust patterns, as well as bringing a performance gain. The proposed framework successfully found attractive patterns on the Korean stock market. We compared newly found patterns with those found by different search schemes, showing the proposed approach has potential.Comment: 8 pages, In proceedings of Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2017), Berlin, German