Neuro-rough trading rules for mining Kuala Lumpur composite index

Stock market plays a vital role in the economic performance. Typically, it is used to infer the economic situation of a particular nation. However, information regarding a stock market is normally incomplete, uncertain and vague, making it a challenge to predict the future economic performance. In order to represent the market, attending to granular information is required. In recent years, many researches in stock market prediction are conducted using diverse Artificial Intelligence approaches. These artificial applications have shown superior prediction results. As such, in this study, a prediction enhancement alleged as Neuro-Rough (NR) is proposed to forecast the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLCI) movements. NR hybridizes high generality of artificial neural network (ANN) and rules extraction ability of rough sets theory (RST) by demonstrating the capability of simplifying the time series data and dealing with uncertain information. Features of stock market data are extracted and presented in a set of decision attribute to the NR systems. The length of the stock market trend is used to assist the process of identifying the trading signals. A pilot experiment is conducted to discover the best discretization algorithm and ANN structure. NR is implemented in a trading simulation and its effectiveness is verified by analyzing the classifier output against the information provided in Bursa Malaysia's annual reports. The experiments using 10 years training and testing data reveal that NR achieves an accuracy of 70% with generated annual profit in trading simulation of 74.33%

Predicting trend reversals using market instantaneous state

Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated behaviour during trend reversals dominated by the pairwise component. In particular, these events are predicted with high significant accuracy by the ensemble's instantaneous state.Comment: 18 pages, 15 figure

Finding kernel function for stock market prediction with support vector regression

Stock market prediction is one of the fascinating issues of stock market research. Accurate stock prediction becomes the biggest challenge in investment industry because the distribution of stock data is changing over the time. Time series forcasting, Neural Network (NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are once commonly used for prediction on stock price. In this study, the data mining operation called time series forecasting is implemented. The large amount of stock data collected from Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange is used for the experiment to test the validity of SVMs regression. SVM is a new machine learning technique with principle of structural minimization risk, which have greater generalization ability and proved success in time series prediction. Two kernel functions namely Radial Basis Function and polynomial are compared for finding the accurate prediction values. Besides that, backpropagation neural network are also used to compare the predictions performance. Several experiments are conducted and some analyses on the experimental results are done. The results show that SVM with polynomial kernels provide a promising alternative tool in KLSE stock market prediction