Stochastic Simulation of Bayesian Belief Networks

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling, and a method described by Pearl, called stochastic simulation. We first review the conditions under which logic sampling is computationally infeasible. Such cases motivated the development of the Pearl's stochastic simulation algorithm. We have found that this stochastic simulation algorithm, when applied to certain networks, leads to much slower than expected convergence to the true posterior probabilities. This behavior is a result of the tendency for local areas in the network to become fixed through many simulation cycles. The time required to obtain significant convergence can be made arbitrarily long by strengthening the probabilistic dependency between nodes. We propose the use of several forms of graph modification, such as graph pruning, arc reversal, and node reduction, in order to convert some networks into formats that are computationally more efficient for simulation.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Third Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1987

Spintronics based Stochastic Computing for Efficient Bayesian Inference System

Bayesian inference is an effective approach for solving statistical learning problems especially with uncertainty and incompleteness. However, inference efficiencies are physically limited by the bottlenecks of conventional computing platforms. In this paper, an emerging Bayesian inference system is proposed by exploiting spintronics based stochastic computing. A stochastic bitstream generator is realized as the kernel components by leveraging the inherent randomness of spintronics devices. The proposed system is evaluated by typical applications of data fusion and Bayesian belief networks. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach could achieve significant improvement on inference efficiencies in terms of power consumption and inference speed.Comment: accepted by ASPDAC 2018 conferenc

An Empirical Evaluation of a Randomized Algorithm for Probabilistic Inference

In recent years, researchers in decision analysis and artificial intelligence (Al) have used Bayesian belief networks to build models of expert opinion. Using standard methods drawn from the theory of computational complexity, workers in the field have shown that the problem of probabilistic inference in belief networks is difficult and almost certainly intractable. K N ET, a software environment for constructing knowledge-based systems within the axiomatic framework of decision theory, contains a randomized approximation scheme for probabilistic inference. The algorithm can, in many circumstances, perform efficient approximate inference in large and richly interconnected models of medical diagnosis. Unlike previously described stochastic algorithms for probabilistic inference, the randomized approximation scheme computes a priori bounds on running time by analyzing the structure and contents of the belief network. In this article, we describe a randomized algorithm for probabilistic inference and analyze its performance mathematically. Then, we devote the major portion of the paper to a discussion of the algorithm's empirical behavior. The results indicate that the generation of good trials (that is, trials whose distribution closely matches the true distribution), rather than the computation of numerous mediocre trials, dominates the performance of stochastic simulation. Key words: probabilistic inference, belief networks, stochastic simulation, computational complexity theory, randomized algorithms.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1989

Backward Simulation in Bayesian Networks

Backward simulation is an approximate inference technique for Bayesian belief networks. It differs from existing simulation methods in that it starts simulation from the known evidence and works backward (i.e., contrary to the direction of the arcs). The technique's focus on the evidence leads to improved convergence in situations where the posterior beliefs are dominated by the evidence rather than by the prior probabilities. Since this class of situations is large, the technique may make practical the application of approximate inference in Bayesian belief networks to many real-world problems.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1994

An Importance Sampling Algorithm Based on Evidence Pre-propagation

Precision achieved by stochastic sampling algorithms for Bayesian networks typically deteriorates in face of extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose the Evidence Pre-propagation Importance Sampling algorithm (EPIS-BN), an importance sampling algorithm that computes an approximate importance function by the heuristic methods: loopy belief Propagation and e-cutoff. We tested the performance of e-cutoff on three large real Bayesian networks: ANDES, CPCS, and PATHFINDER. We observed that on each of these networks the EPIS-BN algorithm gives us a considerable improvement over the current state of the art algorithm, the AIS-BN algorithm. In addition, it avoids the costly learning stage of the AIS-BN algorithm.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Nineteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2003

Planning and Acting under Uncertainty: A New Model for Spoken Dialogue Systems

Uncertainty plays a central role in spoken dialogue systems. Some stochastic models like Markov decision process (MDP) are used to model the dialogue manager. But the partially observable system state and user intention hinder the natural representation of the dialogue state. MDP-based system degrades fast when uncertainty about a user's intention increases. We propose a novel dialogue model based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). We use hidden system states and user intentions as the state set, parser results and low-level information as the observation set, domain actions and dialogue repair actions as the action set. Here the low-level information is extracted from different input modals, including speech, keyboard, mouse, etc., using Bayesian networks. Because of the limitation of the exact algorithms, we focus on heuristic approximation algorithms and their applicability in POMDP for dialogue management. We also propose two methods for grid point selection in grid-based approximation algorithms.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2001

Implementing a Bayes Filter in a Neural Circuit: The Case of Unknown Stimulus Dynamics

In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli which caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a Bayes filter, which applies Bayes' rule to combine population responses with the predictions of an internal model. In this paper we present a method for learning to approximate a Bayes filter when the stimulus dynamics are unknown. To do this we use the inferential properties of probabilistic population codes to compute Bayes' rule, and train a neural network to compute approximate predictions by the method of maximum likelihood. In particular, we perform stochastic gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood with a novel approximation of the gradient. We demonstrate our methods on a finite-state, a linear, and a nonlinear filtering problem, and show how the hidden layer of the neural network develops tuning curves which are consistent with findings in experimental neuroscience.Comment: This is the final version, and has been accepted for publication in Neural Computatio

Hardware implementation of Bayesian network building blocks with stochastic spintronic devices

Bayesian networks are powerful statistical models to understand causal relationships in real-world probabilistic problems such as diagnosis, forecasting, computer vision, etc. For systems that involve complex causal dependencies among many variables, the complexity of the associated Bayesian networks become computationally intractable. As a result, direct hardware implementation of these networks is one promising approach to reducing power consumption and execution time. However, the few hardware implementations of Bayesian networks presented in literature rely on deterministic CMOS devices that are not efficient in representing the inherently stochastic variables in a Bayesian network. This work presents an experimental demonstration of a Bayesian network building block implemented with naturally stochastic spintronic devices. These devices are based on nanomagnets with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy, initialized to their hard axes by the spin orbit torque from a heavy metal under-layer utilizing the giant spin Hall effect, enabling stochastic behavior. We construct an electrically interconnected network of two stochastic devices and manipulate the correlations between their states by changing connection weights and biases. By mapping given conditional probability tables to the circuit hardware, we demonstrate that any two node Bayesian networks can be implemented by our stochastic network. We then present the stochastic simulation of an example case of a four node Bayesian network using our proposed device, with parameters taken from the experiment. We view this work as a first step towards the large scale hardware implementation of Bayesian networks.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Importance Sampling via Variational Optimization

Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are extremely unlikely even alternative algorithms such as variational methods and stochastic sampling often perform poorly. We present a new importance sampling algorithm for Bayesian networks which is based on variational techniques. We use the updates of the importance function to predict whether the stochastic sampling converged above or below the true likelihood, and change the proposal distribution accordingly. The validity of the method and its contribution to convergence is demonstrated on hard networks of large genetic linkage analysis tasks.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Third Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2007

QMDP-Net: Deep Learning for Planning under Partial Observability

This paper introduces the QMDP-net, a neural network architecture for planning under partial observability. The QMDP-net combines the strengths of model-free learning and model-based planning. It is a recurrent policy network, but it represents a policy for a parameterized set of tasks by connecting a model with a planning algorithm that solves the model, thus embedding the solution structure of planning in a network learning architecture. The QMDP-net is fully differentiable and allows for end-to-end training. We train a QMDP-net on different tasks so that it can generalize to new ones in the parameterized task set and "transfer" to other similar tasks beyond the set. In preliminary experiments, QMDP-net showed strong performance on several robotic tasks in simulation. Interestingly, while QMDP-net encodes the QMDP algorithm, it sometimes outperforms the QMDP algorithm in the experiments, as a result of end-to-end learning.Comment: NIPS 2017 camera-read