Towards Reliable Stochastic Data-Driven Models Applied to the Energy Saving in Buildings

We aim at the elaboration of Information Systems able to optimize energy consumption in buildings while preserving human comfort. Our focus is in the use of state-based stochastic modeling applied to temporal signals acquired from heterogeneous sources such as distributed sensors, weather web services, calendar information and user triggered events. Our general scientic objectives are: (1) global instead of local optimization of building automation sub-systems (heating, ventilation, cooling, solar shadings, electric lightings), (2) generalization to unseen building conguration or usage through self-learning data-driven algorithms and (3) inclusion of stochastic state-based modeling to better cope with seasonal and building activity patterns. We leverage on state-based models such as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to be able to capture the spatial (states) and temporal (sequence of states) characteristics of the signals. We envision several application layers as per the intrinsic nature of the signals to be modeled. We also envision room-level systems able to leverage on a set of distributed sensors (temperature, presence, electricity consumption, etc.). A typical example of room-level system is to infer room occupancy information or activities done in the rooms as a function of time. Finally, building-level systems can be composed to infer global usage and to propose optimization strategies for the building as a whole. In our approach, each layer may be fed by the output of the previous layers. More specically in this paper, we report on the design, conception and validation of several machine learning applications. We present three different applications of state-based modeling. In the rst case we report on the identication of consumer appliances through an analysis of their electric loads. In the second case we perform the activity recognition task, representing human activities through state-based models. The third case concerns the season prediction using building data, building characteristic parameters and meteorological data

A compositional method for reliability analysis of workflows affected by multiple failure modes

We focus on reliability analysis for systems designed as workflow based compositions of components. Components are characterized by their failure profiles, which take into account possible multiple failure modes. A compositional calculus is provided to evaluate the failure profile of a composite system, given failure profiles of the components. The calculus is described as a syntax-driven procedure that synthesizes a workflows failure profile. The method is viewed as a design-time aid that can help software engineers reason about systems reliability in the early stage of development. A simple case study is presented to illustrate the proposed approach

Web Site Personalization based on Link Analysis and Navigational Patterns

The continuous growth in the size and use of the World Wide Web imposes new methods of design and development of on-line information services. The need for predicting the users’ needs in order to improve the usability and user retention of a web site is more than evident and can be addressed by personalizing it. Recommendation algorithms aim at proposing “next” pages to users based on their current visit and the past users’ navigational patterns. In the vast majority of related algorithms, however, only the usage data are used to produce recommendations, disregarding the structural properties of the web graph. Thus important – in terms of PageRank authority score – pages may be underrated. In this work we present UPR, a PageRank-style algorithm which combines usage data and link analysis techniques for assigning probabilities to the web pages based on their importance in the web site’s navigational graph. We propose the application of a localized version of UPR (l-UPR) to personalized navigational sub-graphs for online web page ranking and recommendation. Moreover, we propose a hybrid probabilistic predictive model based on Markov models and link analysis for assigning prior probabilities in a hybrid probabilistic model. We prove, through experimentation, that this approach results in more objective and representative predictions than the ones produced from the pure usage-based approaches

A self-adapting latency/power tradeoff model for replicated search engines

For many search settings, distributed/replicated search engines deploy a large number of machines to ensure efficient retrieval. This paper investigates how the power consumption of a replicated search engine can be automatically reduced when the system has low contention, without compromising its efficiency. We propose a novel self-adapting model to analyse the trade-off between latency and power consumption for distributed search engines. When query volumes are high and there is contention for the resources, the model automatically increases the necessary number of active machines in the system to maintain acceptable query response times. On the other hand, when the load of the system is low and the queries can be served easily, the model is able to reduce the number of active machines, leading to power savings. The model bases its decisions on examining the current and historical query loads of the search engine. Our proposal is formulated as a general dynamic decision problem, which can be quickly solved by dynamic programming in response to changing query loads. Thorough experiments are conducted to validate the usefulness of the proposed adaptive model using historical Web search traffic submitted to a commercial search engine. Our results show that our proposed self-adapting model can achieve an energy saving of 33% while only degrading mean query completion time by 10 ms compared to a baseline that provisions replicas based on a previous day's traffic