Statistical Verification of Autonomous Systems using Surrogate Models and Conformal Inference

In this paper, we propose conformal inference based approach for statistical verification of CPS models. Cyber-physical systems (CPS) such as autonomous vehicles, avionic systems, and medical devices operate in highly uncertain environments. This uncertainty is typically modeled using a finite number of parameters or input signals. Given a system specification in Signal Temporal Logic (STL), we would like to verify that for all (infinite) values of the model parameters/input signals, the system satisfies its specification. Unfortunately, this problem is undecidable in general. {\em Statistical model checking} (SMC) offers a solution by providing guarantees on the correctness of CPS models by statistically reasoning on model simulations. We propose a new approach for statistical verification of CPS models for user-provided distribution on the model parameters. Our technique uses model simulations to learn {\em surrogate models}, and uses {\em conformal inference} to provide probabilistic guarantees on the satisfaction of a given STL property. Additionally, we can provide prediction intervals containing the quantitative satisfaction values of the given STL property for any user-specified confidence level. We also propose a refinement procedure based on Gaussian Process (GP)-based surrogate models for obtaining fine-grained probabilistic guarantees over sub-regions in the parameter space. This in turn enables the CPS designer to choose assured validity domains in the parameter space for safety-critical applications. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our technique on several CPS models

Model-Free Reinforcement Learning for Stochastic Games with Linear Temporal Logic Objectives

We study the problem of synthesizing control strategies for Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) objectives in unknown environments. We model this problem as a turn-based zero-sum stochastic game between the controller and the environment, where the transition probabilities and the model topology are fully unknown. The winning condition for the controller in this game is the satisfaction of the given LTL specification, which can be captured by the acceptance condition of a deterministic Rabin automaton (DRA) directly derived from the LTL specification. We introduce a model-free reinforcement learning (RL) methodology to find a strategy that maximizes the probability of satisfying a given LTL specification when the Rabin condition of the derived DRA has a single accepting pair. We then generalize this approach to LTL formulas for which the Rabin condition has a larger number of accepting pairs, providing a lower bound on the satisfaction probability. Finally, we illustrate applicability of our RL method on two motion planning case studies