Statistical methods in cosmology

The advent of large data-set in cosmology has meant that in the past 10 or 20 years our knowledge and understanding of the Universe has changed not only quantitatively but also, and most importantly, qualitatively. Cosmologists rely on data where a host of useful information is enclosed, but is encoded in a non-trivial way. The challenges in extracting this information must be overcome to make the most of a large experimental effort. Even after having converged to a standard cosmological model (the LCDM model) we should keep in mind that this model is described by 10 or more physical parameters and if we want to study deviations from it, the number of parameters is even larger. Dealing with such a high dimensional parameter space and finding parameters constraints is a challenge on itself. Cosmologists want to be able to compare and combine different data sets both for testing for possible disagreements (which could indicate new physics) and for improving parameter determinations. Finally, cosmologists in many cases want to find out, before actually doing the experiment, how much one would be able to learn from it. For all these reasons, sophisiticated statistical techniques are being employed in cosmology, and it has become crucial to know some statistical background to understand recent literature in the field. I will introduce some statistical tools that any cosmologist should know about in order to be able to understand recently published results from the analysis of cosmological data sets. I will not present a complete and rigorous introduction to statistics as there are several good books which are reported in the references. The reader should refer to those.Comment: 31, pages, 6 figures, notes from 2nd Trans-Regio Winter school in Passo del Tonale. To appear in Lectures Notes in Physics, "Lectures on cosmology: Accelerated expansion of the universe" Feb 201

Modern Statistical Methods for GLAST Event Analysis

We describe a statistical reconstruction methodology for the GLAST LAT. The methodology incorporates in detail the statistics of the interactions of photons and charged particles with the tungsten layers in the LAT, and uses the scattering distributions to compute the full probability distribution over the energy and direction of the incident photons. It uses model selection methods to estimate the probabilities of the possible geometrical configurations of the particles produced in the detector, and numerical marginalization over the energy loss and scattering angles at each layer. Preliminary results show that it can improve on the tracker-only energy estimates for muons and electrons incident on the LAT.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the First GLAST Symposium (held at Stanford University, 5-8 February 2007

Using simulation studies to evaluate statistical methods

Simulation studies are computer experiments that involve creating data by pseudorandom sampling. The key strength of simulation studies is the ability to understand the behaviour of statistical methods because some 'truth' (usually some parameter/s of interest) is known from the process of generating the data. This allows us to consider properties of methods, such as bias. While widely used, simulation studies are often poorly designed, analysed and reported. This tutorial outlines the rationale for using simulation studies and offers guidance for design, execution, analysis, reporting and presentation. In particular, this tutorial provides: a structured approach for planning and reporting simulation studies, which involves defining aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods and performance measures ('ADEMP'); coherent terminology for simulation studies; guidance on coding simulation studies; a critical discussion of key performance measures and their estimation; guidance on structuring tabular and graphical presentation of results; and new graphical presentations. With a view to describing recent practice, we review 100 articles taken from Volume 34 of Statistics in Medicine that included at least one simulation study and identify areas for improvement.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figures (2 in appendix), 8 tables (1 in appendix

Statistical methods for critical scenarios in aeronautics

We present numerical results obtained on the CEMRACS project Predictive SMS proposed by Safety Line. The goal of this work was to elaborate a purely statistical method in order to reconstruct the deceleration profile of a plane during landing under normal operating conditions, from a database containing around $1500$ recordings. The aim of Safety Line is to use this model to detect malfunctions of the braking system of the plane from deviations of the measured deceleration profile of the plane to the one predicted by the model. This yields to a multivariate nonparametric regression problem, which we chose to tackle using a Bayesian approach based on the use of gaussian processes. We also compare this approach with other statistical methods.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure