25,637 research outputs found
Interest rate models with Markov chains
Imperial Users onl
Gradient-free Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with Efficient Kernel Exponential Families
We propose Kernel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (KMC), a gradient-free adaptive
MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). On target densities
where classical HMC is not an option due to intractable gradients, KMC
adaptively learns the target's gradient structure by fitting an exponential
family model in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Computational costs are
reduced by two novel efficient approximations to this gradient. While being
asymptotically exact, KMC mimics HMC in terms of sampling efficiency, and
offers substantial mixing improvements over state-of-the-art gradient free
samplers. We support our claims with experimental studies on both toy and
real-world applications, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and
exact-approximate MCMC.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure
Error bounds for last-column-block-augmented truncations of block-structured Markov chains
This paper discusses the error estimation of the last-column-block-augmented
northwest-corner truncation (LC-block-augmented truncation, for short) of
block-structured Markov chains (BSMCs) in continuous time. We first derive
upper bounds for the absolute difference between the time-averaged functionals
of a BSMC and its LC-block-augmented truncation, under the assumption that the
BSMC satisfies the general -modulated drift condition. We then establish
computable bounds for a special case where the BSMC is exponentially ergodic.
To derive such computable bounds for the general case, we propose a method that
reduces BSMCs to be exponentially ergodic. We also apply the obtained bounds to
level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes (LD-QBDs), and discuss the
properties of the bounds through the numerical results on an M/M/ retrial
queue, which is a representative example of LD-QBDs. Finally, we present
computable perturbation bounds for the stationary distribution vectors of
BSMCs.Comment: This version has fixed the bugs for the positions of Figures 1
through
Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Autoregression models incorporating Alpha-stable noise for inter-day price movements via Approximate Bayesian Computation
We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a
Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR
models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price
series level shifts which are not accurately modeled in the standard Gaussian
error correction model (ECM) framework. This involves developing a novel matrix
variate Bayesian CVAR mixture model comprised of Gaussian errors intra-day and
Alpha-stable errors inter-day in the ECM framework. To achieve this we derive a
novel conjugate posterior model for the Scaled Mixtures of Normals (SMiN CVAR)
representation of Alpha-stable inter-day innovations. These results are
generalized to asymmetric models for the innovation noise at inter-day
boundaries allowing for skewed Alpha-stable models.
Our proposed model and sampling methodology is general, incorporating the
current literature on Gaussian models as a special subclass and also allowing
for price series level shifts either at random estimated time points or known a
priori time points. We focus analysis on regularly observed non-Gaussian level
shifts that can have significant effect on estimation performance in
statistical models failing to account for such level shifts, such as at the
close and open of markets. We compare the estimation accuracy of our model and
estimation approach to standard frequentist and Bayesian procedures for CVAR
models when non-Gaussian price series level shifts are present in the
individual series, such as inter-day boundaries. We fit a bi-variate
Alpha-stable model to the inter-day jumps and model the effect of such jumps on
estimation of matrix-variate CVAR model parameters using the likelihood based
Johansen procedure and a Bayesian estimation. We illustrate our model and the
corresponding estimation procedures we develop on both synthetic and actual
data.Comment: 30 page
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