Learning to Transform Time Series with a Few Examples

We describe a semi-supervised regression algorithm that learns to transform one time series into another time series given examples of the transformation. This algorithm is applied to tracking, where a time series of observations from sensors is transformed to a time series describing the pose of a target. Instead of defining and implementing such transformations for each tracking task separately, our algorithm learns a memoryless transformation of time series from a few example input-output mappings. The algorithm searches for a smooth function that fits the training examples and, when applied to the input time series, produces a time series that evolves according to assumed dynamics. The learning procedure is fast and lends itself to a closed-form solution. It is closely related to nonlinear system identification and manifold learning techniques. We demonstrate our algorithm on the tasks of tracking RFID tags from signal strength measurements, recovering the pose of rigid objects, deformable bodies, and articulated bodies from video sequences. For these tasks, this algorithm requires significantly fewer examples compared to fully-supervised regression algorithms or semi-supervised learning algorithms that do not take the dynamics of the output time series into account

On the concept of complexity in random dynamical systems

We introduce a measure of complexity in terms of the average number of bits per time unit necessary to specify the sequence generated by the system. In random dynamical system, this indicator coincides with the rate K of divergence of nearby trajectories evolving under two different noise realizations. The meaning of K is discussed in the context of the information theory, and it is shown that it can be determined from real experimental data. In presence of strong dynamical intermittency, the value of K is very different from the standard Lyapunov exponent computed considering two nearby trajectories evolving under the same randomness. However, the former is much more relevant than the latter from a physical point of view as illustrated by some numerical computations for noisy maps and sandpile models.Comment: 35 pages, LaTe

Regularization and Bayesian Learning in Dynamical Systems: Past, Present and Future

Regularization and Bayesian methods for system identification have been repopularized in the recent years, and proved to be competitive w.r.t. classical parametric approaches. In this paper we shall make an attempt to illustrate how the use of regularization in system identification has evolved over the years, starting from the early contributions both in the Automatic Control as well as Econometrics and Statistics literature. In particular we shall discuss some fundamental issues such as compound estimation problems and exchangeability which play and important role in regularization and Bayesian approaches, as also illustrated in early publications in Statistics. The historical and foundational issues will be given more emphasis (and space), at the expense of the more recent developments which are only briefly discussed. The main reason for such a choice is that, while the recent literature is readily available, and surveys have already been published on the subject, in the author's opinion a clear link with past work had not been completely clarified.Comment: Plenary Presentation at the IFAC SYSID 2015. Submitted to Annual Reviews in Contro