Exploring the bullwhip effect by means of spreadsheet simulation.

One of the main supply chain deficiencies is the bullwhip effect: demand fluctuations increase as one moves up the supply chain from retailer to manufacturer. The Beer Distribution Game is widely known for illustrating these supply chain dynamics in class. In this paper we present a spreadsheet application, exploring the two key causes of the bullwhip effect: demand forecasting and the type of ordering policy. We restrict our attention to a single product two-echelon system and illustrate how tuning the parameters of the replenishment policy induces or reduces the bullwhip effect. We also demonstrate how bullwhip reduction (dampening the order variability) may have an adverse impact on inventory holdings and/or customer service. As such, the spreadsheets can be used as an educational tool to gain a clear insight into the use of inventory control policies and forecasting in relation to the bullwhip effect and customer service.Bullwhip effect; Replenishment rules; Forecasting techniques; Spreadsheet simulation; Beer distribution game;

Exploring the bullwhip effect by means of spreadsheet simulation.

An important supply chain research problem is the bullwhip effect: demand fluctuations increase as one moves up the supply chain from retailer to manufacturer. It has been recognized that demand forecasting and ordering policies are two of the key causes of the bullwhip effect. In this paper we present a spreadsheet application, which explores a series of replenishment policies and forecasting techniques under different demand patterns. It illustrates how tuning the parameters of the replenishment policy induces or reduces the bullwhip effect. Moreover, we demonstrate how bullwhip reduction (order variability dampening) may have an adverse impact on inventory holdings. Indeed, order smoothing may increase inventory fluctuations resulting in poorer customer service. As such, the spreadsheets can be used as an educational tool to gain a clear insight into the use or abuse of inventory control policies and improper forecasting in relation to the bullwhip effect and customer service. Keywords: Bullwhip effect, forecasting techniques, replenishment rules, inventory fluctuations, spreadsheet simulationBullwhip; Bullwhip effect; Forecasting techniques; Inventory fluctuations; Replenishment rule; Simulation; Spreadsheet simulation;

Information technology and performance management for build-to-order supply chains

En las siguientes líneas se plantea un artículo de reflexión que tiene en cuenta parte del marco teórico que sustenta la investigación titulada “Prácticas pedagógicas que promueven la competencia argumentativa escrita (CAE) en niños campesinos de los grados 4° y 5° del Centro Educativo Municipal La Caldera, Sede Principal de Pasto”, desarrollada en el año 2012. En él se contemplan los aportes de las ciencias del lenguaje y la comunicación, la teoría de la argumentación, la didáctica de la lengua escrita y los géneros discursivos, que dan cuenta de la necesidad de desarrollar la capacidad crítica en los estudiantes a través de la argumentación, lo cual implica transformar las prácticas pedagógicas para que se alejen de la transmisión de conocimientos y den paso a la comunicación, para que la palabra escrita sea apropiada de manera significativa

Driving continuous improvement

The quality of improvement depends on the quality of leading and lagging performance indicators. For this reason, several tools, such as process mapping, cause and effect analysis and FMEA, need to be used in an integrated way with performance measurement models, such as balanced scorecard, integrated performance measurement system, performance prism and so on. However, in our experience, this alone is not quite enough due to the amount of effort required to monitor performance indicators at operational levels. The authors find that IT support is key to the successful implementation of performance measurement-driven continuous improvement schemes

Exploring the bullwhip effect by means of spreadsheet simulation

An important supply chain research problem is the bullwhip effect: demand fluctuations increase as one moves up the supply chain from retailer to manufacturer. It has been recognized that demand forecasting and ordering policies are two of the key causes of the bullwhip effect. In this paper we present a spreadsheet application, which explores a series of replenishment policies and forecasting techniques under different demand patterns. It illustrates how tuning the parameters of the replenishment policy induces or reduces the bullwhip effect. Moreover, we demonstrate how bullwhip reduction (order variability dampening) may have an adverse impact on inventory holdings. Indeed, order smoothing may increase inventory fluctuations resulting in poorer customer service. As such, the spreadsheets can be used as an educational tool to gain a clear insight into the use or abuse of inventory control policies and improper forecasting in relation to the bullwhip effect and customer service. Keywords: Bullwhip effect, forecasting techniques, replenishment rules, inventory fluctuations, spreadsheet simulatio

Applying total cost of ownership for strategic procurement : three industrial case studies.

In this paper we elaborate on a Total Cost of Ownership supplier selection methodology that we have constructed using three real life case studies which are presented in this article. Analysing the value chain of the firm, data on the costs generated by the purchasing policy and on supplier performance are collected using Activity Based Costing (ABC). Since a spreadsheet cannot encompass all these costs, let alone optimise the supplier selection and inventory management policy, a mathematical programming model is used. Possible savings of between 6 and 14% are obtained for the three cases.Case studies; Studies;

A Spreadsheet Model that Estimates the Impact of Reduced Distribution Time on Inventory Investment Savings: What is a Day Taken out of the Pipeline Worth in Inventory?

In most of the literature dealing with inventory problems, either with a deterministic or probabilistic model, lead time is viewed as a prescribed constant or a stochastic variable that is not subject to control. But in many practical situations, lead time can be reduced by an extra crashing cost; in other words, it is controllable. This study proposes a repeatable spreadsheet optimization model that estimates the impact of reduced replenishment lead time on inventory investment savings at forward and strategic locations to motivate decision makers to support enterprise-wide distribution process improvement. The study provides users with a means of automatically calculating inventory control parameters such as safety stocks and reorder points, and automatically estimating the savings caused by lead time mean or variability reduction. A trade-off analysis can be done to determine whether reducing lead time would override the lead time crashing cost. First, the model finds the optimal safety factor of an item based on a fill rate goal using Excel Solver. Then, Excel\u27s VBA automates the process of finding safety factors for other items before and after lead time reduction. Finally, the model is applied to three different supply support activities to illustrate its superior features, which include allowing the user to change and upgrade it for future research

The impact of nonlinear dynamics on the resilience of a grocery supply chain

Purpose of this paper: In an effort to improve operational and logistical efficiencies, UK grocery retailers combined primary and secondary distribution increasing the importance of designing resilient replenishment systems in the distribution centre. This paper has the purpose to analyse the resilience performance of the distribution centre stock ordering system within a grocery retailer. Design/methodology/approach: A system dynamics approach is used for framing and building a credible representation of the real system. Mathematical analysis of the nonlinear model based on nonlinear control engineering techniques in combination with system dynamics simulation have been used to understand the behaviour of stock and shipment output responses in the distribution centre given step and periodic demand signals. Findings: Preliminary mathematical analysis through nonlinear control theory techniques has been undertaken in order to gain initial insights in the understanding of the replenishment control model. This practice allowed the researcher to identify specific behaviour change in the DC stock and shipment responses, which are key indicators for assessing supply chain resilience, without going through a time-consuming simulation process. Transfer function analysis and describing function serve as a guideline for undertaking system dynamics simulation. Value: This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature of supply chain resilience by using quantitative system dynamics methods to assess the resilience performance of a grocery retailer. In this way, we also supplement the literature with empirical data. Moreover, we explore different analytical methods since simulation is the predominant method for quantitative analysis of system dynamics. Research limitations/implications (if applicable): This research is limited to the dynamics of single-echelon supply chain systems. Although the EPOS sales data and the store replenishment system have been considered in the validation process, this study has focused on analysing the resilience performance of the DC replenishment system only. Considering the multi-echelon supply chain is intended for further research activities. Practical implications (if applicable): The findings suggest that the distribution centre replenishment system can be re-designed in order to improve the supply chain resilience performance. The ‘As Is’ scenario produces slow response of stock levels and inventory targets are never recovered due to a permanent offset