A Policy Impact Evaluation Model For Scotland: Decoupling Single Farm Payments

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impacts of decoupling single farm payments in Scotland. It focuses on aggregate impacts on the agricultural products in domestic and external markets and the spill-over effect of this on the non-agricultural sector as well as an aggregate impact on the Scottish GDP. In order to capture system-wide impacts of the policy reform, a CGE model was formulated and implemented using a social accounting matrix constructed for Scotland. The simulation results suggest that the Scottish agricultural sector may encounter declines in output and factor us as a result of the policy reform. However, this critically depends on two factors: (a) the price effect of the policy reform on Scottish agricultural products relative to the EU average as well as the conditions of changes in world agricultural market prices; and (b) the extent to which customers would be sensitive to price effects of the policy reform. As far as the spill-over effect to the non-agricultural sector is concerned, decoupling of direct payments seems to have a positive spill-over effect. Similarly, the aggregate GDP effect is positive under all simulation scenarios. Critically, the simulation experiments indicate that policy shock may have a symmetrical outcome across the two sectors, with contractions in agriculture being accompanied by expansions in the non-agricultural sector, mainly because of factor market interactions between the two sectors.Cap reform; single farm payments; spill-over effects; Scotland

Parasite spill-back from domestic hosts may induce an Allee effect in wildlife hosts

The exchange of native pathogens between wild and domesticated animals can lead to novel disease dynamics. A simple model reveals that the spill-back of native parasites\ud from domestic to wild hosts may cause a demographic Allee effect. Because parasite spill-over and spill-back decouples the abundance of parasite infectious stages from the abundance of the wild host population, parasitism and mortality of the wild host population increases non-linearly as host abundance decreases. Analogous to the effects of satiation of generalist predators, parasite spill-back can produce an unstable equilibrium in the abundance of the host population above which the host population persists and below which it is at risk of extirpation. These effects are likely to be most pronounced in systems where the parasite has a high efficiency of transmission from domestic to wild host populations due to prolonged sympatry, disease vectors, or proximity of domesticated populations to wildlife migratory corridors

Volatility Spill-over in a Customs Union: The Case of South Africa Sheep Import from Namibia

Prices guide economic agents’ resource allocation and output mix decisions. The extent of price transmission determines the nature of market integration. Volatility spill-over in spatially linked agricultural markets has been investigated, but not across borders. We developed an E-GARCH model which enabled us to explore various properties of price volatility – volatility persistence, asymmetric interference and volatility spill-over. We found the existence of significant volatility spill-over within the South African Customs Union (SACU) using sheep price data in Namibia and South Africa, especially with the introduction of Small Livestock Marketing Scheme (SLMS) in namibia. The results show more stickiness in the retail market than the wholesale market in South Africa (90% and 49%), suggesting a greater impact of price volatility on South Africa consumers than the processors. In terms of volatility spill-over, the asymmetric effect is significant at 5 percent suggesting that these two markets are somewhat integrated, since the incidence of volatility spill-over from Namibia has influenced price information transmission in the South African sheep market. Furthermore, 79 percent of the volatility in the Namibian market is transmitted through sheep meat retail prices to the South African sheep market. The measure of volatility persistence is significant; indicating that 45 percent of the volatility transmitted to the South African sheep market is persistent.Livestock Production/Industries,

Unemployment in an Interdependent World

We introduce search and matching unemployment into a model of trade with differentiated goods and heterogeneous firms. Countries may differ with respect to size, geographical location, and labor market institutions. Contrary to the literature, our single-sector perspective pays special attention to the role of income effects and shows that bad institutions in one country worsen labor market outcomes not only in that country but also in its trading partners. This spill-over effect is conditioned by trade costs and country size: smaller and/or more centrally located nations suffer less from inefficient policies at home and are more heavily affected from spill-overs abroad than larger and/or peripheral ones. We offer empirical evidence for a panel of 20 rich OECD countries. Carefully controlling for institutional features and for business cycle comovements between countries, we confirm our qualitative theoretical predictions. However, the magnitude of spill-over effects is larger in the data than in the theoretical model. We show that introducing real wage rigidity can remedy this problem.spill-over effects of labor market institutions, unemployment, international trade, search frictions, heterogeneous firms

A Policy Impact Evaluation Model For Scotland: Decoupling Single Farm Payments

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impacts of decoupling single farm payments in Scotland. It focuses on aggregate impacts on the agricultural products in domestic and external markets and the spill-over effect of this on the non-agricultural sector as well as an aggregate impact on the Scottish GDP. In order to capture system-wide impacts of the policy reform, a CGE model was formulated and implemented using a social accounting matrix constructed for Scotland. The simulation results suggest that the Scottish agricultural sector may encounter declines in output and factor us as a result of the policy reform. However, this critically depends on two factors: (a) the price effect of the policy reform on Scottish agricultural products relative to the EU average as well as the conditions of changes in world agricultural market prices; and (b) the extent to which customers would be sensitive to price effects of the policy reform. As far as the spill-over effect to the non-agricultural sector is concerned, decoupling of direct payments seems to have a positive spill-over effect. Similarly, the aggregate GDP effect is positive under all simulation scenarios. Critically, the simulation experiments indicate that policy shock may have a symmetrical outcome across the two sectors, with contractions in agriculture being accompanied by expansions in the non-agricultural sector, mainly because of factor market interactions between the two sectors.

Small gas turbine combustor study: Fuel injector performance in a transpiration-cooled liner

The effect of fuel injection technique on the performance of an advanced reverse flow combustor liner constructed of Lamilloy (a multilaminate transpiration type material) was determined. Performance and emission levels are documented over a range of simulated flight conditions using simplex pressure atomizing, spill return, and splash cone airblast injectors. A parametric evaluation of the effect of increased combustor loading with each of the fuel injector types is obtained

A multifrequency evaluation of active and passive microwave sensors for oil spill detection and assessment

An evaluation is given of how active and passive microwave sensors can best be used in oil spill detection and assessment. Radar backscatter curves taken over oil spills are presented and their effect on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery are discussed. Plots of microwave radiometric brightness variations over oil spills are presented and discussed. Recommendations as to how to select the best combination of frequency, viewing angle, and sensor type for evaluation of various aspects of oil spills are also discussed

What Type of Public Capital Contributes to Private Production?

The main purpose of this study is to determine whether public capital contributes to productivity growth and, if so, what kind of public capital contributes most. We analyze a dataset of 46 prefectures in Japan over 41 years, from 1955 to 1995, and estimate the production function as the first-differenced form. In the case where analysis was conducted using aggregate public capital, public capital shows a positive contribution to private production. However, we could find no clear productivity effects when using smaller components of public capital. Key Words: Public Capital, Productivity Effect, Infrastructure, Spill-over Effect JEL: Classification H50, H54, R53

Are Married Spouses Insured by their Partners’ Social Insurance?

We use a Swedish sickness insurance reform to show that among married couples a partner’s benefit level affects spousal labour supply. The spousal elasticity of sick days with respect to the partner’s benefit is estimated to be 0.4, which is about one-fourth of the own labor supply elasticity. It is argued the main part of this effect is an insurance income effect.Spousal labor supply; spill-over; social insurance programs