Measuring Monetary Conditions in US Asset Markets - A Market Specific Approach

We analyze monetary conditions in US asset markets — corporate equity, real estate, Treasury bond and corporate & foreign bond — from a market specific perspective, proposing the concept of market leverage. Market leverage measures the average leverage of all asset holders in a particular asset market. The concept builds on an accounting based network that links balance sheet leverages of asset holders to their corresponding shares of ownership. Our empirical analysis yields the following results. Firstly, market specific monetary conditions can differ considerably among asset markets. Secondly, market specific monetary conditions are positively related to asset prices. Thirdly, US asset markets have experienced a loosening in market specific monetary conditions in the last decades. Fourthly, the loosening of market specific monetary conditions explains long-term increases in US asset prices. Fifthly, the recent convergence of market specific monetary conditions of real asset markets towards those of financial asset markets implies a rise in upside risk to future US asset price inflation.market leverage; monetary conditions; asset prices

Incomplete Diversification and Asset Pricing

Investors in equilibrium are modeled as facing investor specific risks across the space of assets. Personalized asset pricing models reflect these risks. Averaging across the pool of investors we obtain a market asset pricing model that reflects market risk exposures. It is observed on invoking a law of large numbers applied to an infinite population of investors, that many personally relevant risk considerations can be eliminated from the market asset pricing model. Examples illustrating the effects of undiversified labor income and taste specific price indices are provided. Suggestions for future work on asset pricing include a need to focus on identifying and explaining investor specific risk exposures.Diversification, Asset Pricing, Investor specific risks

Exploring some standard-setters’ views in respect of asset recognition

In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with four Standards-setters: three International Accounting Standards Board members and a Canadian Accounting Standards Board staff member –who has been working on the IASB’s Conceptual Framework project – in particular, the elements and recognition phase. These interviews were conducted from May to June 2008 and were directed towards seven related themes taken from the litarture: the definition of an asset, the recognition of an asset, asset recognition is a-priori to asset measurement, the resource in respect of intangible assets comprises ‘rights’, entity specific versus market specific events, separability, internally generated intangible assets. As one can observe from their personal views, they were not inclined towards the use of asset recognition criteria preferring instead to rely upon compliance with the definition of an asset and then an asset’s subsequent measurement

New Capital Estimates for China

Data on physical capital are an indispensable part of economic growth and efficiency studies. In the case of China, economy-wide fixed asset series are usually derived by aggregating gross fixed capital formation (net of depreciation) over time, and sectoral/ownership-specific series by correcting the limited official fixed asset data available. These procedures, to varying degrees, ignore that (i) gross fixed capital formation does not equal investment, (ii) investment does not equal the value of fixed assets newly created through investment, (iii) depreciation is an accounting measure that bears no necessary relation to changes in the production capacity of fixed assets, (iv) official fixed asset data, where available, incorporate significant revaluations in the 1990s, and (v) “net fixed assets” do not measure the contribution of fixed assets to production. This paper derives economy-wide fixed asset values for 1953-2003, correcting for these shortcomings. It uses both the traditional, cumulative approach and a new, so far unexplored method of combining economy-wide depreciation values and an economy-wide depreciation rate to directly yield economy-wide fixed assets. The derived fixed asset time series are evaluated in a comparison with each other as well as with series in the literature, leading to the recommendation of a specific choice of fixed asset time series.Capital, investment, national income accounting, production function estimations, Chinese statistics, fixed assets, measurement of economic growth

Direct preferences for wealth, the risk premium puzzle, growth, and policy effectiveness

In this paper, we consider social status, the spirit of capitalism, fiscal policies, and asset pricing in a stochastic model of growth. With specific assumptions on the production technology, preferences, and stochastic shocks, we derive the explicit solutions to the growth rates of consumption and savings and equilibrium returns on all assets. We further demonstrate how fiscal policies, the spirit of capitalism, and stochastic shocks affect growth, asset pricing, and welfare.Social status, The spirit of capitalism, Fiscal policies, Asset pricing, Stochastic growth

Impact Investments: An Emerging Asset Class

Examines the impact investment market landscape, what makes it an emerging asset class, expectations for financial returns, estimates of potential investment opportunities in specific sectors, and risk management and performance monitoring issues

High order discretization schemes for stochastic volatility models

In usual stochastic volatility models, the process driving the volatility of the asset price evolves according to an autonomous one-dimensional stochastic differential equation. We assume that the coefficients of this equation are smooth. Using Itô's formula, we get rid, in the asset price dynamics, of the stochastic integral with respect to the Brownian motion driving this SDE. Taking advantage of this structure, we propose - a scheme, based on the Milstein discretization of this SDE, with order one of weak trajectorial convergence for the asset price, - a scheme, based on the Ninomiya-Victoir discretization of this SDE, with order two of weak convergence for the asset price. We also propose a specific scheme with improved convergence properties when the volatility of the asset price is driven by an Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. We confirm the theoretical rates of convergence by numerical experiments and show that our schemes are well adapted to the multilevel Monte Carlo method introduced by Giles [2008a, 2008b].discretization schemes, stochastic volatility models, weak trajectorial convergence, multilevel Monte Carlo

Learning, Cascades and Transaction Costs

This paper analyzes the effect of transaction costs on the social learning in an asset market with asymmetric information, sequential trading and competitive price mechanism. Both fixed and proportional transaction costs reduce the informational content of trading orders and lead to informational cascades. If transaction costs are very high, an informational cascade can occur not only when beliefs converge to a specific asset value, but also when in the market there is complete uncertainty about the asset's fundamental value. Finally, if the asset value in the bad state is sufficiently low, proportional transaction costs lead to an informational cascade only when prices are very high.

Market implied costs of bankruptcy

This paper takes a novel approach to estimating bankruptcy costs by inference from market prices of equity and put options using a dynamic structural model of capital structure. This approach avoids the selection bias of looking at firms in or near default and therefore permits theories of ex ante capital structure determination to be tested. We identify significant cross sectional variation in bankruptcy costs across industries and relate these to specific firm characteristics. We find that asset volatility and growth options have significant positive impacts, while tangibility and size have negative impacts. Our bankruptcy cost variable estimate significantly negatively impacts leverage ratios. This negative impact is in addition to that of other firm characteristics such as asset intangibility and asset volatility. The results provide strong support for the tradeoff theory of capital structure

Managing investment risks of institutional private equity investors: The challenge of illiquidity

Since private equity investments are not publicly traded, a key issue in measuring investment risks of institutional private equity investors arises from a careful measurement of investment returns in the first place. Prices of private equity investments are typically observed at low frequency and are determined by transactions under low liquidity. This contribution highlights useful approaches to the problem of return measurement under conditions of illiquidity. Then, specific risk management issues, including asset allocation issues, are discussed. --private equity,risk/return measurement,net asset values,cash flows,illiquidity,stale pricing,risk management,asset allocation