Attention and Anticipation in Fast Visual-Inertial Navigation

We study a Visual-Inertial Navigation (VIN) problem in which a robot needs to estimate its state using an on-board camera and an inertial sensor, without any prior knowledge of the external environment. We consider the case in which the robot can allocate limited resources to VIN, due to tight computational constraints. Therefore, we answer the following question: under limited resources, what are the most relevant visual cues to maximize the performance of visual-inertial navigation? Our approach has four key ingredients. First, it is task-driven, in that the selection of the visual cues is guided by a metric quantifying the VIN performance. Second, it exploits the notion of anticipation, since it uses a simplified model for forward-simulation of robot dynamics, predicting the utility of a set of visual cues over a future time horizon. Third, it is efficient and easy to implement, since it leads to a greedy algorithm for the selection of the most relevant visual cues. Fourth, it provides formal performance guarantees: we leverage submodularity to prove that the greedy selection cannot be far from the optimal (combinatorial) selection. Simulations and real experiments on agile drones show that our approach ensures state-of-the-art VIN performance while maintaining a lean processing time. In the easy scenarios, our approach outperforms appearance-based feature selection in terms of localization errors. In the most challenging scenarios, it enables accurate visual-inertial navigation while appearance-based feature selection fails to track robot's motion during aggressive maneuvers.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability

This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discount.diversification;non-interest income;financial conglomerates;banking stability;extreme value analysis;tail risk

Learning Machines Supporting Bankruptcy Prediction

In many economic applications it is desirable to make future predictions about the financial status of a company. The focus of predictions is mainly if a company will default or not. A support vector machine (SVM) is one learning method which uses historical data to establish a classification rule called a score or an SVM. Companies with scores above zero belong to one group and the rest to another group. Estimation of the probability of default (PD) values can be calculated from the scores provided by an SVM. The transformation used in this paper is a combination of weighting ranks and of smoothing the results using the PAV algorithm. The conversion is then monotone. This discussion paper is based on the Creditreform database from 1997 to 2002. The indicator variables were converted to financial ratios; it transpired out that eight of the 25 were useful for the training of the SVM. The results showed that those ratios belong to activity, profitability, liquidity and leverage. Finally, we conclude that SVMs are capable of extracting the necessary information from financial balance sheets and then to predict the future solvency or insolvent of a company. Banks in particular will benefit from these results by allowing them to be more aware of their risk when lending money.Support Vector Machine, Bankruptcy, Default Probabilities Prediction, Profitability

Return to College Education Revisited: Is Relevance Relevant?

This study examines whether the size of the college earnings premium varies depending on the quality of the match between an individual’s degree field and his/her occupation. The study uses the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) to obtain a new measure of the quality of occupational match for a sample of 2268 young adults with post-secondary degrees from the restricted use High School and Beyond (1980/92) data. The study finds that people whose occupations better match their degree fields earn significantly higher returns to post-secondary schooling. This result is robust to controlling for an extensive set of pre-existing differences among individuals, and to accounting for differences in earnings across post-secondary degree fields

The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics

The use of equilibrium models in economics springs from the desire for parsimonious models of economic phenomena that take human reasoning into account. This approach has been the cornerstone of modern economic theory. We explain why this is so, extolling the virtues of equilibrium theory; then we present a critique and describe why this approach is inherently limited, and why economics needs to move in new directions if it is to continue to make progress. We stress that this shouldn't be a question of dogma, but should be resolved empirically. There are situations where equilibrium models provide useful predictions and there are situations where they can never provide useful predictions. There are also many situations where the jury is still out, i.e., where so far they fail to provide a good description of the world, but where proper extensions might change this. Our goal is to convince the skeptics that equilibrium models can be useful, but also to make traditional economists more aware of the limitations of equilibrium models. We sketch some alternative approaches and discuss why they should play an important role in future research in economics.Comment: 68 pages, one figur

Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic

In this paper we investigate the determinants of the movements in the long-term Standard & Poors and CAMELS bank ratings in the Czech Republic during the period when the three biggest banks, representing approximately 60% of the Czech banking sector's total assets, were privatized (i.e., the time span 1998-2001). The same list of explanatory variables corresponding to the CAMELS rating inputs employed by the Czech National Bank's banking sector regulators was examined for both ratings in order to select significant predictors among them. We employed an ordered response logit model to analyze the monthly long-run S&P rating and a panel data framework for the analysis of the quarterly CAMELS rating. The predictors for which we found significant explanatory power are: Capital Adequacy, Credit Spread, the ratio of Total Loans to Total Assets, and the Total Asset Value at Risk. Models based on these predictors exhibited a predictive accuracy of 70%. Additionally, we found that the verified variables satisfactorily predict the S&P rating one month ahead.Bank rating, CAMELS, ordered logit model, panel data analysis.