7,282 research outputs found
Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario
A variety of methods is available to quantify uncertainties arising with\-in
the modeling of flow and transport in carbon dioxide storage, but there is a
lack of thorough comparisons. Usually, raw data from such storage sites can
hardly be described by theoretical statistical distributions since only very
limited data is available. Hence, exact information on distribution shapes for
all uncertain parameters is very rare in realistic applications. We discuss and
compare four different methods tested for data-driven uncertainty
quantification based on a benchmark scenario of carbon dioxide storage. In the
benchmark, for which we provide data and code, carbon dioxide is injected into
a saline aquifer modeled by the nonlinear capillarity-free fractional flow
formulation for two incompressible fluid phases, namely carbon dioxide and
brine. To cover different aspects of uncertainty quantification, we incorporate
various sources of uncertainty such as uncertainty of boundary conditions, of
conceptual model definitions and of material properties. We consider recent
versions of the following non-intrusive and intrusive uncertainty
quantification methods: arbitary polynomial chaos, spatially adaptive sparse
grids, kernel-based greedy interpolation and hybrid stochastic Galerkin. The
performance of each approach is demonstrated assessing expectation value and
standard deviation of the carbon dioxide saturation against a reference
statistic based on Monte Carlo sampling. We compare the convergence of all
methods reporting on accuracy with respect to the number of model runs and
resolution. Finally we offer suggestions about the methods' advantages and
disadvantages that can guide the modeler for uncertainty quantification in
carbon dioxide storage and beyond
Kontextsensitive Modellhierarchien für Quantifizierung der höherdimensionalen Unsicherheit
We formulate four novel context-aware algorithms based on model hierarchies aimed to enable an efficient quantification of uncertainty in complex, computationally expensive problems, such as fluid-structure interaction and plasma microinstability simulations. Our results show that our algorithms are more efficient than standard approaches and that they are able to cope with the challenges of quantifying uncertainty in higher-dimensional, complex problems.Wir formulieren vier kontextsensitive Algorithmen auf der Grundlage von Modellhierarchien um eine effiziente Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit bei komplexen, rechenintensiven Problemen zu ermöglichen, wie Fluid-Struktur-Wechselwirkungs- und Plasma-Mikroinstabilitätssimulationen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass unsere Algorithmen effizienter als Standardansätze sind und die Herausforderungen der Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit in höherdimensionalen, komplexen Problemen bewältigen können
Spatially-adaptive sensing in nonparametric regression
While adaptive sensing has provided improved rates of convergence in sparse
regression and classification, results in nonparametric regression have so far
been restricted to quite specific classes of functions. In this paper, we
describe an adaptive-sensing algorithm which is applicable to general
nonparametric-regression problems. The algorithm is spatially adaptive, and
achieves improved rates of convergence over spatially inhomogeneous functions.
Over standard function classes, it likewise retains the spatial adaptivity
properties of a uniform design
Adaptive Gaussian Markov Random Fields with Applications in Human Brain Mapping
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has become the standard technology in human brain mapping. Analyses of the massive spatio-temporal fMRI data sets often focus on parametric or nonparametric modeling of the temporal component, while spatial smoothing is based on Gaussian kernels or random fields. A weakness of Gaussian spatial smoothing is underestimation of activation peaks or blurring of high-curvature transitions between activated and non-activated brain regions. In this paper, we introduce a class of inhomogeneous Markov random fields (MRF) with spatially adaptive interaction weights in a space-varying coefficient model for fMRI data. For given weights, the random field is conditionally Gaussian, but marginally it is non-Gaussian. Fully Bayesian inference, including estimation of weights and variance parameters, is carried out through efficient MCMC simulation. An application to fMRI data from a visual stimulation experiment demonstrates the performance of our approach in comparison to Gaussian and robustified non-Gaussian Markov random field models
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