Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Dynamic Occupancy Grid Prediction for Urban Autonomous Driving: A Deep Learning Approach with Fully Automatic Labeling

Long-term situation prediction plays a crucial role in the development of intelligent vehicles. A major challenge still to overcome is the prediction of complex downtown scenarios with multiple road users, e.g., pedestrians, bikes, and motor vehicles, interacting with each other. This contribution tackles this challenge by combining a Bayesian filtering technique for environment representation, and machine learning as long-term predictor. More specifically, a dynamic occupancy grid map is utilized as input to a deep convolutional neural network. This yields the advantage of using spatially distributed velocity estimates from a single time step for prediction, rather than a raw data sequence, alleviating common problems dealing with input time series of multiple sensors. Furthermore, convolutional neural networks have the inherent characteristic of using context information, enabling the implicit modeling of road user interaction. Pixel-wise balancing is applied in the loss function counteracting the extreme imbalance between static and dynamic cells. One of the major advantages is the unsupervised learning character due to fully automatic label generation. The presented algorithm is trained and evaluated on multiple hours of recorded sensor data and compared to Monte-Carlo simulation

ToyArchitecture: Unsupervised Learning of Interpretable Models of the World

Research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has focused mostly on two extremes: either on small improvements in narrow AI domains, or on universal theoretical frameworks which are usually uncomputable, incompatible with theories of biological intelligence, or lack practical implementations. The goal of this work is to combine the main advantages of the two: to follow a big picture view, while providing a particular theory and its implementation. In contrast with purely theoretical approaches, the resulting architecture should be usable in realistic settings, but also form the core of a framework containing all the basic mechanisms, into which it should be easier to integrate additional required functionality. In this paper, we present a novel, purposely simple, and interpretable hierarchical architecture which combines multiple different mechanisms into one system: unsupervised learning of a model of the world, learning the influence of one's own actions on the world, model-based reinforcement learning, hierarchical planning and plan execution, and symbolic/sub-symbolic integration in general. The learned model is stored in the form of hierarchical representations with the following properties: 1) they are increasingly more abstract, but can retain details when needed, and 2) they are easy to manipulate in their local and symbolic-like form, thus also allowing one to observe the learning process at each level of abstraction. On all levels of the system, the representation of the data can be interpreted in both a symbolic and a sub-symbolic manner. This enables the architecture to learn efficiently using sub-symbolic methods and to employ symbolic inference.Comment: Revision: changed the pdftitl