Statistical Optimality of Divide and Conquer Kernel-based Functional Linear Regression

Previous analysis of regularized functional linear regression in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) typically requires the target function to be contained in this kernel space. This paper studies the convergence performance of divide-and-conquer estimators in the scenario that the target function does not necessarily reside in the underlying RKHS. As a decomposition-based scalable approach, the divide-and-conquer estimators of functional linear regression can substantially reduce the algorithmic complexities in time and memory. We develop an integral operator approach to establish sharp finite sample upper bounds for prediction with divide-and-conquer estimators under various regularity conditions of explanatory variables and target function. We also prove the asymptotic optimality of the derived rates by building the mini-max lower bounds. Finally, we consider the convergence of noiseless estimators and show that the rates can be arbitrarily fast under mild conditions

Non-asymptotic Optimal Prediction Error for RKHS-based Partially Functional Linear Models

Under the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), we consider the penalized least-squares of the partially functional linear models (PFLM), whose predictor contains both functional and traditional multivariate part, and the multivariate part allows a divergent number of parameters. From the non-asymptotic point of view, we focus on the rate-optimal upper and lower bounds of the prediction error. An exact upper bound for the excess prediction risk is shown in a non-asymptotic form under a more general assumption known as the effective dimension to the model, by which we also show the prediction consistency when the number of multivariate covariates $p$ slightly increases with the sample size $n$. Our new finding implies a trade-off between the number of non-functional predictors and the effective dimension of the kernel principal components to ensure the prediction consistency in the increasing-dimensional setting. The analysis in our proof hinges on the spectral condition of the sandwich operator of the covariance operator and the reproducing kernel, and on the concentration inequalities for the random elements in Hilbert space. Finally, we derive the non-asymptotic minimax lower bound under the regularity assumption of Kullback-Leibler divergence of the models.Comment: 24 page

Consistent Searches for SMEFT Effects in Non-Resonant Dilepton Events

Employing the framework of the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, we perform a detailed reinterpretation of measurements of the Weinberg angle in dilepton production as a search for new-physics effects. We truncate our signal prediction at order $1/\Lambda^2$, where $\Lambda$ denotes the new-physics mass scale, and introduce a theory error to account for unknown contributions of order $1/\Lambda^4$. Two linear combinations of four-fermion operators with distinct angular behavior contribute to dilepton production with growing impact at high energies. We define suitable angular observables and derive bounds on those two linear combinations using data from the Tevatron and the LHC. We find that the current data is able to constrain interesting regions of parameter space, with important contributions at lower cutoff scales from the Tevatron, and that the future LHC data will eventually be able to simultaneously constrain both independent linear combinations which contribute to dilepton production.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures v2: updated to match version accepted for publicatio

The ROMES method for statistical modeling of reduced-order-model error

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability