Some heuristics about elliptic curves

We give some heuristics for counting elliptic curves with certain properties. In particular, we re-derive the Brumer-McGuinness heuristic for the number of curves with positive/negative discriminant up to $X$, which is an application of lattice-point counting. We then introduce heuristics (with refinements from random matrix theory) that allow us to predict how often we expect an elliptic curve $E$ with even parity to have $L(E,1)=0$. We find that we expect there to be about $c_1X^{19/24}(\log X)^{3/8}$ curves with $|\Delta|<X$ with even parity and positive (analytic) rank; since Brumer and McGuinness predict $cX^{5/6}$ total curves, this implies that asymptotically almost all even parity curves have rank 0. We then derive similar estimates for ordering by conductor, and conclude by giving various data regarding our heuristics and related questions

Discretisation for odd quadratic twists

The discretisation problem for even quadratic twists is almost understood, with the main question now being how the arithmetic Delaunay heuristic interacts with the analytic random matrix theory prediction. The situation for odd quadratic twists is much more mysterious, as the height of a point enters the picture, which does not necessarily take integral values (as does the order of the Shafarevich-Tate group). We discuss a couple of models and present data on this question.Comment: To appear in the Proceedings of the INI Workshop on Random Matrix Theory and Elliptic Curve

Counting elliptic curves of bounded Faltings height

We give an asymptotic formula for the number of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ with bounded Faltings height. Silverman has shown that the Faltings height for elliptic curves over number fields can be expressed in terms of modular functions and the minimal discriminant of the elliptic curve. We use this to recast the problem as one of counting lattice points in a particular region in $\mathbb{R}^2$.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, 1 table. To be published in Acta Arithmetic

Moments of the critical values of families of elliptic curves, with applications

We make conjectures on the moments of the central values of the family of all elliptic curves and on the moments of the first derivative of the central values of a large family of positive rank curves. In both cases the order of magnitude is the same as that of the moments of the central values of an orthogonal family of L-functions. Notably, we predict that the critical values of all rank 1 elliptic curves is logarithmically larger than the rank 1 curves in the positive rank family. Furthermore, as arithmetical applications we make a conjecture on the distribution of a_p's amongst all rank 2 elliptic curves, and also show how the Riemann hypothesis can be deduced from sufficient knowledge of the first moment of the positive rank family (based on an idea of Iwaniec).Comment: 24 page

Nonvanishing of twists of LL-functions attached to Hilbert modular forms

We describe algorithms for computing central values of twists of $L$-functions associated to Hilbert modular forms, carry out such computations for a number of examples, and compare the results of these computations to some heuristics and predictions from random matrix theory.Comment: 19 page

A heuristic for boundedness of ranks of elliptic curves

We present a heuristic that suggests that ranks of elliptic curves over the rationals are bounded. In fact, it suggests that there are only finitely many elliptic curves of rank greater than 21. Our heuristic is based on modeling the ranks and Shafarevich-Tate groups of elliptic curves simultaneously, and relies on a theorem counting alternating integer matrices of specified rank. We also discuss analogues for elliptic curves over other global fields.Comment: 41 pages, typos fixed in torsion table in section