Reducing the risk of software cost estimation

Inaccurate cost estimation is a well-known problem in software development. The common cost estimation models are point estimates that are unable to quantify uncertainties. Furthermore, it is difficult to calibrate the uncertainties in cost estimation due to the lack of information. The purpose of this thesis is to prove that probability techniques could be synthesized into COCOMO (Constructive Cost Model) to quantify uncertainties. Another aim is to find out how to get more insight on reducing the risk of cost estimation. In this thesis, some historical data is presented to show the variance in factors of COCOMO. Monte Carlo simulation method is also introduced into COCOMO to quantify the uncertainties. Finally, a “What-if\u27 study is facilitated to find the potential factor changes to affect the result of simulation. The result of the study reveals that process maturity has more influence than productivity on reducing variance of estimation. It indicates that synthesizing Monte Carlo simulation and “What-if\u27 studies into COCOMO could produce insightful information to reduce the risk of software cost estimation

A influência de fatores na produtividade do desenvolvimento de software de acordo com um modelo de estruturas teóricas

This work presents an evidence-based model describing the effects of a set of factors on software development productivity, obtained through an evidence synthesis method in Software Engineering. Thus, the relationships among this set and the software development productivity (observed phenomena) are described as results of combining theoretical structures capable of expressing and dealing with differences between different effects and uncertainties varying according to the types of studies found in the literature. Besides, to evaluate the model found, its findings are confronted with a survey capturing the practitioners’ perception (managers and leaders of software projects in Brazilian organizations). The degree of agreement between research (the model) and practice (the practitioners’ perception) shows that scientific knowledge does not differ considerably from the reality experienced by software projects when both of them refer to the influence of factors on software development productivity. The impression that research and practice on the theme go through different paths persists. According to this work, the reasons for this impression are more related to the use of non-standardized and, perhaps, inappropriate measures used to perceive and monitor the influence of factors as well as to measure the software development productivityEste trabalho apresenta um modelo baseado em evidências que descreve efeitos de alguns fatores na produtividade do desenvolvimento de software, obtidos através de um método de síntese de evidências em Engenharia de Software. Deste modo, as relações entre um conjunto de fatores e a produtividade do desenvolvimento de software (fenômenos observados) são descritas como resultados da combinação de estruturas teóricas capazes de expressar e tratar diferenças entre efeitos e incertezas variadas de acordo com os tipos de estudos primários encontrados na literatura. Além disso, para avaliar o modelo encontrado, seus achados são confrontados com uma pesquisa de opinião realizada para capturar a percepção de profissionais da prática (gestores e líderes de projetos de software em organizações brasileiras). O grau de concordância entre a pesquisa (o modelo) e a prática (a percepção dos profissionais) demonstra que, aparentemente, o conhecimento científico não diverge consideravelmente da realidade vivenciada pelos projetos de software no Brasil, quando ambos se referem à influência de fatores na produtividade do desenvolvimento de software. Persiste a impressão, entretanto, de que a pesquisa e a prática no tema percorrem caminhos distintos. De acordo com este trabalho, a impressão do distanciamento parece estar relacionadas à questão do uso de medidas não-padronizadas e, talvez, inapropriadas para mensurar os fatores e a produtividade do desenvolvimento de softwar