54,875 research outputs found
Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data for Predicting Stock Market Movements
Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest.
Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and
opinion about current events. Especially, twitter has attracted a lot of
attention from researchers for studying the public sentiments. Stock market
prediction on the basis of public sentiments expressed on twitter has been an
intriguing field of research. Previous studies have concluded that the
aggregate public mood collected from twitter may well be correlated with Dow
Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). The thesis of this work is to observe
how well the changes in stock prices of a company, the rises and falls, are
correlated with the public opinions being expressed in tweets about that
company. Understanding author's opinion from a piece of text is the objective
of sentiment analysis. The present paper have employed two different textual
representations, Word2vec and N-gram, for analyzing the public sentiments in
tweets. In this paper, we have applied sentiment analysis and supervised
machine learning principles to the tweets extracted from twitter and analyze
the correlation between stock market movements of a company and sentiments in
tweets. In an elaborate way, positive news and tweets in social media about a
company would definitely encourage people to invest in the stocks of that
company and as a result the stock price of that company would increase. At the
end of the paper, it is shown that a strong correlation exists between the rise
and falls in stock prices with the public sentiments in tweets.Comment: 6 pages 4 figures Conference Pape
Social media analytics: a survey of techniques, tools and platforms
This paper is written for (social science) researchers seeking to analyze the wealth of social media now available. It presents a comprehensive review of software tools for social networking media, wikis, really simple syndication feeds, blogs, newsgroups, chat and news feeds. For completeness, it also includes introductions to social media scraping, storage, data cleaning and sentiment analysis. Although principally a review, the paper also provides a methodology and a critique of social media tools. Analyzing social media, in particular Twitter feeds for sentiment analysis, has become a major research and business activity due to the availability of web-based application programming interfaces (APIs) provided by Twitter, Facebook and News services. This has led to an ‘explosion’ of data services, software tools for scraping and analysis and social media analytics platforms. It is also a research area undergoing rapid change and evolution due to commercial pressures and the potential for using social media data for computational (social science) research. Using a simple taxonomy, this paper provides a review of leading software tools and how to use them to scrape, cleanse and analyze the spectrum of social media. In addition, it discussed the requirement of an experimental computational environment for social media research and presents as an illustration the system architecture of a social media (analytics) platform built by University College London. The principal contribution of this paper is to provide an overview (including code fragments) for scientists seeking to utilize social media scraping and analytics either in their research or business. The data retrieval techniques that are presented in this paper are valid at the time of writing this paper (June 2014), but they are subject to change since social media data scraping APIs are rapidly changing
On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective
Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to
forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political
elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies
demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap
access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such
forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in
a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare
to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues,
here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media
streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches.
We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible
outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that
sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of
social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines
set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields
above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The
system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected
immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the
rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction
performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting
strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the
2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring
the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments
(FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA
Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure
Genetic programming optimization for a sentiment feedback strength based trading strategy
This study is motivated by the empirical findings that news and social me-
dia Twitter messages (tweets) exhibit persistent predictive power on financial
market movement. Based on the evidence that tweets are faster than news in
revealing new market information, whereas news is regarded broadly a more
reliable source of information than tweets, we propose a superior trading strat-
egy based on the sentiment feedback strength between the news and tweets
using generic programming optimization method. The key intuition behind
this feedback strength based approach is that the joint momentum of the two
sentiment series leads to significant market signals, which can be exploited to
generate superior trading profits. With the trade-off between information speed
and its reliability, this study aims to develop an optimal trading strategy us-
ing investors' sentiment feedback strength with the objective to maximize risk
adjusted return measured by the Sterling ratio. We find that the sentiment feed-
back based strategies yield superior market returns with low maximum draw-
down over the period from 2012 to 2015. In comparison, the strategies based on
the sentiment feedback indicator generate over 14.7% Sterling ratio compared
with 10.4% and 13.6% from the technical indicator-based strategies and the ba-
sic buy-and-hold strategy respectively. After considering transaction costs, the sentiment indicator based strategy outperforms the technical indicator based
strategy consistently. Backtesting shows that the advantage is statistically significant. The result suggests that the sentiment feedback indicator provides
support in controlling loss with lower maximum drawdown
A Novel Distributed Representation of News (DRNews) for Stock Market Predictions
In this study, a novel Distributed Representation of News (DRNews) model is
developed and applied in deep learning-based stock market predictions. With the
merit of integrating contextual information and cross-documental knowledge, the
DRNews model creates news vectors that describe both the semantic information
and potential linkages among news events through an attributed news network.
Two stock market prediction tasks, namely the short-term stock movement
prediction and stock crises early warning, are implemented in the framework of
the attention-based Long Short Term-Memory (LSTM) network. It is suggested that
DRNews substantially enhances the results of both tasks comparing with five
baselines of news embedding models. Further, the attention mechanism suggests
that short-term stock trend and stock market crises both receive influences
from daily news with the former demonstrates more critical responses on the
information related to the stock market {\em per se}, whilst the latter draws
more concerns on the banking sector and economic policies.Comment: 25 page
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