Regularization and Bayesian Learning in Dynamical Systems: Past, Present and Future

Regularization and Bayesian methods for system identification have been repopularized in the recent years, and proved to be competitive w.r.t. classical parametric approaches. In this paper we shall make an attempt to illustrate how the use of regularization in system identification has evolved over the years, starting from the early contributions both in the Automatic Control as well as Econometrics and Statistics literature. In particular we shall discuss some fundamental issues such as compound estimation problems and exchangeability which play and important role in regularization and Bayesian approaches, as also illustrated in early publications in Statistics. The historical and foundational issues will be given more emphasis (and space), at the expense of the more recent developments which are only briefly discussed. The main reason for such a choice is that, while the recent literature is readily available, and surveys have already been published on the subject, in the author's opinion a clear link with past work had not been completely clarified.Comment: Plenary Presentation at the IFAC SYSID 2015. Submitted to Annual Reviews in Contro

Tight conditions for consistency of variable selection in the context of high dimensionality

We address the issue of variable selection in the regression model with very high ambient dimension, that is, when the number of variables is very large. The main focus is on the situation where the number of relevant variables, called intrinsic dimension, is much smaller than the ambient dimension d. Without assuming any parametric form of the underlying regression function, we get tight conditions making it possible to consistently estimate the set of relevant variables. These conditions relate the intrinsic dimension to the ambient dimension and to the sample size. The procedure that is provably consistent under these tight conditions is based on comparing quadratic functionals of the empirical Fourier coefficients with appropriately chosen threshold values. The asymptotic analysis reveals the presence of two quite different re gimes. The first regime is when the intrinsic dimension is fixed. In this case the situation in nonparametric regression is the same as in linear regression, that is, consistent variable selection is possible if and only if log d is small compared to the sample size n. The picture is different in the second regime, that is, when the number of relevant variables denoted by s tends to infinity as $n\to\infty$. Then we prove that consistent variable selection in nonparametric set-up is possible only if s+loglog d is small compared to log n. We apply these results to derive minimax separation rates for the problem of variableComment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1102.3616; Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS1046 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Advances in Feature Selection with Mutual Information

The selection of features that are relevant for a prediction or classification problem is an important problem in many domains involving high-dimensional data. Selecting features helps fighting the curse of dimensionality, improving the performances of prediction or classification methods, and interpreting the application. In a nonlinear context, the mutual information is widely used as relevance criterion for features and sets of features. Nevertheless, it suffers from at least three major limitations: mutual information estimators depend on smoothing parameters, there is no theoretically justified stopping criterion in the feature selection greedy procedure, and the estimation itself suffers from the curse of dimensionality. This chapter shows how to deal with these problems. The two first ones are addressed by using resampling techniques that provide a statistical basis to select the estimator parameters and to stop the search procedure. The third one is addressed by modifying the mutual information criterion into a measure of how features are complementary (and not only informative) for the problem at hand