Second best toll and capacity optimisation in network: solution algorithm and policy implications

This paper looks at the first and second-best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting algorithm for solving the second-best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second-best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in conjunction with investments in the network

Spatial patterns of adoption of just-in-time manufacturing

We study the spatial pattern of Just-in-Time (JIT) adoption for a sample of medium-sized and large Spanish manufacturing firms. JIT differs from other advanced manufacturing technologies because it relates directly to the spatial coordination of a firms’ internal production organisation with its external productive environment and depends on the quality of the transport system. Our results confirm the distinctive role of location for JIT adoption even after controlling for industry and plant-specific differences. We find that JIT adoption is greater in smaller cities but with higher transport accessibility indicating that urban congestion in larger urban areas likely reduces the benefits that firms may obtain from JIT implementation.

Management of Production in Construction: A Theoretical View

The transformation view and the flow view are two major conceptualizations of production. The current practice in construction is based on the transformation view. However, the transformation view is an idealization, and in a complex production situation the associated idealization error may become large. This is exactly what happens in practice. Task management, based on the transformation view, assumes that certainty prevails in production. However, it is widely observed that, due to the inherent variability of production in construction, intended task management degenerates into mutual adjustment by teams on site. It is argued that the transformation view and the flow view should be synthesized into a new theoretical view on construction. The inherent causes of variability in construction can be explained and the countermeasures for eliminating variability or stemming its impact can be pinpointed by this new theoretical view. It is shown that the Last Planner method is compatible with this new view

Revisiting the empirical fundamental relationship of traffic flow for highways using a causal econometric approach

The fundamental relationship of traffic flow is empirically estimated by fitting a regression curve to a cloud of observations of traffic variables. Such estimates, however, may suffer from the confounding/endogeneity bias due to omitted variables such as driving behaviour and weather. To this end, this paper adopts a causal approach to obtain an unbiased estimate of the fundamental flow-density relationship using traffic detector data. In particular, we apply a Bayesian non-parametric spline-based regression approach with instrumental variables to adjust for the aforementioned confounding bias. The proposed approach is benchmarked against standard curve-fitting methods in estimating the flow-density relationship for three highway bottlenecks in the United States. Our empirical results suggest that the saturated (or hypercongested) regime of the estimated flow-density relationship using correlational curve fitting methods may be severely biased, which in turn leads to biased estimates of important traffic control inputs such as capacity and capacity-drop. We emphasise that our causal approach is based on the physical laws of vehicle movement in a traffic stream as opposed to a demand-supply framework adopted in the economics literature. By doing so, we also aim to conciliate the engineering and economics approaches to this empirical problem. Our results, thus, have important implications both for traffic engineers and transport economists

A dynamic traffic assignment model for highly congested urban networks

The management of severe congestion in complex urban networks calls for dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models that can replicate real traffic situations with long queues and spillbacks. DynaMIT-P, a mesoscopic traffic simulation system, was enhanced and calibrated to capture the traffic characteristics in a sub-area of Beijing, China. The network had 1698 nodes and 3180 directed links in an area of around 18 square miles. There were 2927 non-zero origin–destination (OD) pairs and around 630,000 vehicles were simulated over 4 h of the morning peak. All demand and supply parameters were calibrated simultaneously using sensor counts and floating car travel time data. Successful calibration was achieved with the Path-size Logit route choice model, which accounted for overlapping routes. Furthermore, explicit representations of lane groups were required to properly model traffic delays and queues. A modified treatment of acceptance capacity was required to model the large number of short links in the transportation network (close to the length of one vehicle). In addition, even though bicycles and pedestrians were not explicitly modeled, their impacts on auto traffic were captured by dynamic road segment capacities.Beijing Transportation Research Cente

Estimating Uncertainty of Bus Arrival Times and Passenger Occupancies

Travel time reliability and the availability of seating and boarding space are important indicators of bus service quality and strongly influence users’ satisfaction and attitudes towards bus transit systems. With Automated Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automated Passenger Counter (APC) units becoming common on buses, some agencies have begun to provide real-time bus location and passenger occupancy information as a means to improve perceived transit reliability. Travel time prediction models have also been established based on AVL and APC data. However, existing travel time prediction models fail to provide an indication of the uncertainty associated with these estimates. This can cause a false sense of precision, which can lead to experiences associated with unreliable service. Furthermore, no existing models are available to predict individual bus occupancies at downstream stops to help travelers understand if there will be space available to board. The purpose of this project was to develop modeling frameworks to predict travel times (and associated uncertainties) as well as individual bus passenger occupancies. For travel times, accelerated failure-time survival models were used to predict the entire distribution of travel times expected. The survival models were found to be just as accurate as models developed using traditional linear regression techniques. However, the survival models were found to have smaller variances associated with predictions. For passenger occupancies, linear and count regression models were compared. The linear regression models were found to outperform count regression models, perhaps due to the additive nature of the passenger boarding process. Various modeling frameworks were tested and the best frameworks were identified for predictions at near stops (within five stops downstream) and far stops (further than eight stops). Overall, these results can be integrated into existing real-time transit information systems to improve the quality of information provided to passengers