Facilitating insight into a simulation model using visualization and dynamic model previews

This paper shows how model simplification, by replacing iterative steps with unitary predictive equations, can enable dynamic interaction with a complex simulation process. Model previews extend the techniques of dynamic querying and query previews into the context of ad hoc simulation model exploration. A case study is presented within the domain of counter-current chromatography. The relatively novel method of insight evaluation was applied, given the exploratory nature of the task. The evaluation data show that the trade-off in accuracy is far outweighed by benefits of dynamic interaction. The number of insights gained using the enhanced interactive version of the computer model was more than six times higher than the number of insights gained using the basic version of the model. There was also a trend for dynamic interaction to facilitate insights of greater domain importance

Brain Activity Mapping from MEG Data via a Hierarchical Bayesian Algorithm with Automatic Depth Weighting

A recently proposed iterated alternating sequential (IAS) MEG inverse solver algorithm, based on the coupling of a hierarchical Bayesian model with computationally efficient Krylov subspace linear solver, has been shown to perform well for both superficial and deep brain sources. However, a systematic study of its ability to correctly identify active brain regions is still missing. We propose novel statistical protocols to quantify the performance of MEG inverse solvers, focusing in particular on how their accuracy and precision at identifying active brain regions. We use these protocols for a systematic study of the performance of the IAS MEG inverse solver, comparing it with three standard inversion methods, wMNE, dSPM, and sLORETA. To avoid the bias of anecdotal tests towards a particular algorithm, the proposed protocols are Monte Carlo sampling based, generating an ensemble of activity patches in each brain region identified in a given atlas. The performance in correctly identifying the active areas is measured by how much, on average, the reconstructed activity is concentrated in the brain region of the simulated active patch. The analysis is based on Bayes factors, interpreting the estimated current activity as data for testing the hypothesis that the active brain region is correctly identified, versus the hypothesis of any erroneous attribution. The methodology allows the presence of a single or several simultaneous activity regions, without assuming that the number of active regions is known. The testing protocols suggest that the IAS solver performs well with both with cortical and subcortical activity estimation

A Novel Predictive-Coding-Inspired Variational RNN Model for Online Prediction and Recognition

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.Comment: The paper is accepted in Neural Computatio

Distributed Hypothesis Testing, Attention Shifts and Transmitter Dynatmics During the Self-Organization of Brain Recognition Codes

BP (89-A-1204); Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (90-0083); National Science Foundation (IRI-90-00530); Air Force Office of Scientific Research (90-0175, 90-0128); Army Research Office (DAAL-03-88-K0088