Empirical exploration of air traffic and human dynamics in terminal airspaces

Air traffic is widely known as a complex, task-critical techno-social system, with numerous interactions between airspace, procedures, aircraft and air traffic controllers. In order to develop and deploy high-level operational concepts and automation systems scientifically and effectively, it is essential to conduct an in-depth investigation on the intrinsic traffic-human dynamics and characteristics, which is not widely seen in the literature. To fill this gap, we propose a multi-layer network to model and analyze air traffic systems. A Route-based Airspace Network (RAN) and Flight Trajectory Network (FTN) encapsulate critical physical and operational characteristics; an Integrated Flow-Driven Network (IFDN) and Interrelated Conflict-Communication Network (ICCN) are formulated to represent air traffic flow transmissions and intervention from air traffic controllers, respectively. Furthermore, a set of analytical metrics including network variables, complex network attributes, controllers' cognitive complexity, and chaotic metrics are introduced and applied in a case study of Guangzhou terminal airspace. Empirical results show the existence of fundamental diagram and macroscopic fundamental diagram at the route, sector and terminal levels. Moreover, the dynamics and underlying mechanisms of "ATCOs-flow" interactions are revealed and interpreted by adaptive meta-cognition strategies based on network analysis of the ICCN. Finally, at the system level, chaos is identified in conflict system and human behavioral system when traffic switch to the semi-stable or congested phase. This study offers analytical tools for understanding the complex human-flow interactions at potentially a broad range of air traffic systems, and underpins future developments and automation of intelligent air traffic management systems.Comment: 30 pages, 28 figures, currently under revie

Channel Detection in Coded Communication

We consider the problem of block-coded communication, where in each block, the channel law belongs to one of two disjoint sets. The decoder is aimed to decode only messages that have undergone a channel from one of the sets, and thus has to detect the set which contains the prevailing channel. We begin with the simplified case where each of the sets is a singleton. For any given code, we derive the optimum detection/decoding rule in the sense of the best trade-off among the probabilities of decoding error, false alarm, and misdetection, and also introduce sub-optimal detection/decoding rules which are simpler to implement. Then, various achievable bounds on the error exponents are derived, including the exact single-letter characterization of the random coding exponents for the optimal detector/decoder. We then extend the random coding analysis to general sets of channels, and show that there exists a universal detector/decoder which performs asymptotically as well as the optimal detector/decoder, when tuned to detect a channel from a specific pair of channels. The case of a pair of binary symmetric channels is discussed in detail.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Information Theor