Unstructured sequential testing in sensor networks

We consider the problem of quickly detecting a signal in a sensor network when the subset of sensors in which signal may be present is completely unknown. We formulate this problem as a sequential hypothesis testing problem with a simple null (signal is absent everywhere) and a composite alternative (signal is present somewhere). We introduce a novel class of scalable sequential tests which, for any subset of affected sensors, minimize the expected sample size for a decision asymptotically, that is as the error probabilities go to 0. Moreover, we propose sequential tests that require minimal transmission activity from the sensors to the fusion center, while preserving this asymptotic optimality property.Comment: 6 two-column pages, To appear in the Proceedings 2013 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, Firenze, Italy, December 201

A Rejection Principle for Sequential Tests of Multiple Hypotheses Controlling Familywise Error Rates

We present a unifying approach to multiple testing procedures for sequential (or streaming) data by giving sufficient conditions for a sequential multiple testing procedure to control the familywise error rate (FWER), extending to the sequential domain the work of Goeman and Solari (2010) who accomplished this for fixed sample size procedures. Together we call these conditions the "rejection principle for sequential tests," which we then apply to some existing sequential multiple testing procedures to give simplified understanding of their FWER control. Next the principle is applied to derive two new sequential multiple testing procedures with provable FWER control, one for testing hypotheses in order and another for closed testing. Examples of these new procedures are given by applying them to a chromosome aberration data set and to finding the maximum safe dose of a treatment

A Linear Programming Approach to Sequential Hypothesis Testing

Under some mild Markov assumptions it is shown that the problem of designing optimal sequential tests for two simple hypotheses can be formulated as a linear program. The result is derived by investigating the Lagrangian dual of the sequential testing problem, which is an unconstrained optimal stopping problem, depending on two unknown Lagrangian multipliers. It is shown that the derivative of the optimal cost function with respect to these multipliers coincides with the error probabilities of the corresponding sequential test. This property is used to formulate an optimization problem that is jointly linear in the cost function and the Lagrangian multipliers and an be solved for both with off-the-shelf algorithms. To illustrate the procedure, optimal sequential tests for Gaussian random sequences with different dependency structures are derived, including the Gaussian AR(1) process.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Sequential Analysi

Sequential Tests of Multiple Hypotheses Controlling Type I and II Familywise Error Rates

This paper addresses the following general scenario: A scientist wishes to perform a battery of experiments, each generating a sequential stream of data, to investigate some phenomenon. The scientist would like to control the overall error rate in order to draw statistically-valid conclusions from each experiment, while being as efficient as possible. The between-stream data may differ in distribution and dimension but also may be highly correlated, even duplicated exactly in some cases. Treating each experiment as a hypothesis test and adopting the familywise error rate (FWER) metric, we give a procedure that sequentially tests each hypothesis while controlling both the type I and II FWERs regardless of the between-stream correlation, and only requires arbitrary sequential test statistics that control the error rates for a given stream in isolation. The proposed procedure, which we call the sequential Holm procedure because of its inspiration from Holm's (1979) seminal fixed-sample procedure, shows simultaneous savings in expected sample size and less conservative error control relative to fixed sample, sequential Bonferroni, and other recently proposed sequential procedures in a simulation study