Application of decision analysis in the evaluation of recreational fishery management problems

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 1995Fisheries management is a decision-making process, yet typically formal decision analysis techniques are not used in structuring problems, quantifying interactions, or arriving at a prioritized solution. Decision analysis tools are applied in the decision-making process for Alaska's recreational fisheries management as a means to reduce risk in management at the policy (Chapter 2) and field (Chapter 3) levels. In Chapter 2 the analytic hierarchy process is applied to the recreational fishery for chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Kenai River. Model structure is developed through an iterative interview process involving individuals asked to represent the perspectives of 15 different stakeholders. Individual stakeholder judgments are combined using a geometric mean, and maximax and maximin criteria. The sensitivity of the results to under-representation is explored through various models. Despise the contentious differences of perspective represented among stakeholders, the analytic hierarchy process identifies management options that enjoy broad support and limited opposition. In Chapter 3 decision analysis is applied to the recreational spear fishery for humpback whitefish (Coregonus pidschian) in the Chatanika River. A modified form of catch-age analysis is used to combine information derived from creel surveys and run age composition with auxiliary information in the form of mark-recapture estimates of abundance. Four systems are used in weighting annual observations: prior beliefs regarding their reliability, by the inverses of their variances, through a combination of these two weighting schemes, and equal (no) weights. The perception-weighted model generates the most reasonable estimates of abundance, which are relatively precise and associated with small bias. Forecasts of mature exploitable abundance are calculated based on various recruitment scenarios, maturity schedules, and exploitation rates. From these outcomes, the odds of stock abundance occurring below a threshold level are presented. By applying decision analysis methodologies which incorporate judgments and perceptions into decision-making affecting fisheries, sensitivity to uncertain information is made explicit, components of the problem are structured, interactions among components of the problem are quantified, and options are prioritized, thus increasing the chances of finding an optimal solution

Getting Our Ducks In A Row : An Analysis Of Waterfowl Management Within The Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

The purpose of this dissertation was to identify management strategies used for waterfowl management and the perceived effectiveness of these strategies at coastal sites within the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture. This was accomplished through three specific research objectives: Objective 1: To identify and analyze waterfowl management strategies utilized by coastal sites within the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture; Objective 2: To determine whether waterfowl management strategy use is consistent among coastal sites within the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture; Objective 3: To examine waterfowl management strategy use and value by identifying waterfowl management professionals' perception of strategy effectiveness for coastal sites within the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture.   The study sites for this dissertation included 102 coastal sites within the ACJV. The study derived 13 waterfowl management strategies from the review of administrative history, literature, and experts in the field. A rubric for site management plan analysis was developed. The data were collected from coastal ACJV sites through descriptive analysis of a sample of 43 site management plans, and a self-administered questionnaire sent to waterfowl management professionals at coastal sites within the ACJV. The results of this study indicate that wetlands on site significantly influence the selection of less frequent waterfowl counts and weekly waterbird counts. The findings also indicate respondents' years of experience significantly decrease their perceived effectiveness of weekly waterfowl counts. From these findings five implications for waterfowl management were drawn: (1) The framework for analysis this study created is a step forward for waterfowl management evaluation at the site and regional level. (2) Waterfowl management should not be separated from wetland management; (3) More data regarding the use of the adaptive management approach for coastal sites within the ACJV and monitoring and evaluation of waterfowl at the site level is necessary; (4) Waterfowl management should include a component of Education and Outreach; and (5) There is a need for an interdisciplinary management approach to waterfowl management.  Ph.D