Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality: a validation study in Tanzania and Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy is currently the only option for obtaining cause of death information in most populations with a widespread HIV/AIDS epidemic. METHODS: With the use of a data-driven algorithm, a set of criteria for classifying AIDS mortality was trained. Data from two longitudinal community studies in Tanzania and Zimbabwe were used, both of which have collected information on the HIV status of the population over a prolonged period and maintained a demographic surveillance system that collects information on cause of death through verbal autopsy. The algorithm was then tested in different times (two phases of the Zimbabwe study) and different places (Tanzania and Zimbabwe). RESULTS: The trained algorithm, including nine signs and symptoms, performed consistently based on sensitivity and specificity on verbal autopsy data for deaths in 15-44-year-olds from Zimbabwe phase I (sensitivity 79%; specificity 79%), phase II (sensitivity 83%; specificity 75%) and Tanzania (sensitivity 75%; specificity 74%) studies. The sensitivity dropped markedly for classifying deaths in 45-59-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality with a set of nine criteria. Surveillance should focus on deaths that occur in the 15-44-year age group for which the method performs reliably. Addition of a handful of questions related to opportunistic infections would enable other widely used verbal autopsy tools to apply this validated method in areas for which HIV testing and hospital records are unavailable or incomplete

Electrocardiographic detection of left ventricular hypertrophy using echocardiographic determination of left ventricular mass as the reference standard Comparison of standard criteria, computer diagnosis and physician interpretation

Electrocardiographic findings of left ventricular hypertrophy were compared with echocardiographic left ventricular mass in 148 patients to assess performance of standard electrocardiographic criteria, the IBM Bonner program and physician interpretation. On echocardiography, 43% of the patients had left ventricular hypertrophy (left ventricular mass > 215 g). Sokolow-Lyon voltage (S in V1+ R in V5or V6) and Romhilt-Estes point score correlated modestly with left ventricular mass (r = 0.40, p < 0.001 and r = 0.55, p < 0.001, respectively). Sensitivity of Sokolow-Lyon voltage greater than 3.5 mV for left ventricular hypertrophy was only 22%, but specificity was 93%. Point score for probable left ventricular hypertrophy (≥ 4 points) had 48% sensitivity and 85% specificity, whereas definite hypertrophy (≥ 5 points) had 34% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Computer analysis resulted in 45% sensitivity and 83% specificity. Overall diagnostic accuracy of the IBM Bonner program (67%) was better than that of Sokolow-Lyon voltage (62%), but worse than the Romhilt-Estes point score (69% for ≥ 4 points or 70% for ≥ 5 points). Three cardiologists interpreted electrocardiograms independently and in a blinded fashion. Physician sensitivity was 56%, specificity 92% and accuracy 76%. Correlation with left ventricular hypertrophy was good (r = 0.70, p < 0.001).It is concluded that: 1) computer diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy by the IBM Bonner program is no more accurate than diagnosis by Sokolow-Lyon or Romhilt-Estes criteria, and 2) physician recognition of left ventricular hypertrophy is more accurate. This suggests that additional information about left ventricular hypertrophy is present in the electrocardiogram that is not detectable by standard criteria or the IBM computer program

Evaluating PET-CT in the detection and management of recurrent cervical cancer: Systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy and subjective elicitation

Background: Positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) is recommended to triage women for exenterative surgery and surveillance after treatment for advanced cervical cancer. Objective: To evaluate diagnostic accuracy of additional whole body PET-CT compared with CT/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) alone in women with suspected recurrent/persistent cervical cancer and in asymptomatic women as surveillance. Design: Systematic reviews. Subjective elicitation to supplement diagnostic information. Search strategy/Selection criteria/Data collection and analysis: Searches of electronic databases were performed to June 2013. Studies in women with suspected recurrent/persistent cervical cancer and in asymptomatic women undergoing follow up with sufficient numeric data were included. We calculated sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Meta-analyses employed a bivariate model that included a random-effects term for between-study variations (CT studies) and univariate random effects meta-analyses (PET-CT studies) for sensitivity and specificity separately. Subjective elicitation: Prevalence of recurrence and the accuracy of imaging elicited using the allocation of points technique. Coherence of elicited subjective probabilities with estimates in the literature examined. Results: We identified 15 relevant studies; none directly compared additional PET-CT with MRI or CT separately. Most CT and MRI studies used older protocols and the majority did not distinguish between asymptomatic and symptomatic women. Meta-analysis of nine PET-CT studies in mostly symptomatic women showed sensitivity of 94.8 (95% CI 91.2-96.9), and specificity of 86.9% (95% CI 82.2-90.5). The summary estimate of the sensitivity of CT for detection of recurrence was 89.64% (95% CI 81.59-94.41) and specificity was 76% (95% CI 43.68-92.82). Meta-analysis for MRI test accuracy studies was not possible because of clinical heterogeneity. The sensitivity and specificity of MRI in pelvic recurrence varied between 82 and 100% and between 78 and 100%, respectively. Formal statistical comparisons of the accuracy of index tests were not possible. Subjective elicitation provided estimates comparable to the literature. Subjective estimates of the increase in accuracy from the addition of PET-CT were less than elicited increases required to justify the use in PET-CT for surveillance. Conclusion: Evidence to support additional PET-CT is scarce, of average quality and does not distinguish between application for surveillance and diagnosis. Guidelines recommending PET-CT in recurrent cervical cancer need to be reconsidered in the light of the existing evidence base

Validation of diabetes mellitus and hypertension diagnosis in computerized medical records in primary health care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computerized Clinical Records, which are incorporated in primary health care practice, have great potential for research. In order to use this information, data quality and reliability must be assessed to prevent compromising the validity of the results.</p> <p>The aim of this study is to validate the diagnosis of hypertension and diabetes mellitus in the computerized clinical records of primary health care, taking the diagnosis criteria established in the most prominently used clinical guidelines as the gold standard against which what measure the sensitivity, specificity, and determine the predictive values.</p> <p>The gold standard for diabetes mellitus was the diagnostic criteria established in 2003 American Diabetes Association Consensus Statement for diabetic subjects. The gold standard for hypertension was the diagnostic criteria established in the Joint National Committee published in 2003.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional multicentre validation study of diabetes mellitus and hypertension diagnoses in computerized clinical records of primary health care was carried out. Diagnostic criteria from the most prominently clinical practice guidelines were considered for standard reference.</p> <p>Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and global agreement (with kappa index), were calculated. Results were shown overall and stratified by sex and age groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The agreement for diabetes mellitus with the reference standard as determined by the guideline was almost perfect (κ = 0.990), with a sensitivity of 99.53%, a specificity of 99.49%, a positive predictive value of 91.23% and a negative predictive value of 99.98%.</p> <p>Hypertension diagnosis showed substantial agreement with the reference standard as determined by the guideline (κ = 0.778), the sensitivity was 85.22%, the specificity 96.95%, the positive predictive value 85.24%, and the negative predictive value was 96.95%. Sensitivity results were worse in patients who also had diabetes and in those aged 70 years or over.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results substantiate the validity of using diagnoses of diabetes and hypertension found within the computerized clinical records for epidemiologic studies.</p

Validation of an algorithm-based definition of treatment resistance in patients with schizophrenia

Large-scale pharmacoepidemiological research on treatment resistance relies on accurate identification of people with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) based on data that are retrievable from administrative registers. This is usually approached by operationalising clinical treatment guidelines by using prescription and hospital admission information. We examined the accuracy of an algorithm-based definition of TRS based on clozapine prescription and/or meeting algorithm-based eligibility criteria for clozapine against a gold standard definition using case notes. We additionally validated a definition entirely based on clozapine prescription. 139 schizophrenia patients aged 18–65 years were followed for a mean of 5 years after first presentation to psychiatric services in South-London, UK. The diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm-based measure against the gold standard was measured with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). A total of 45 (32.4%) schizophrenia patients met the criteria for the gold standard definition of TRS; applying the algorithm-based definition to the same cohort led to 44 (31.7%) patients fulfilling criteria for TRS with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 62.2%, 83.0%, 63.6% and 82.1%, respectively. The definition based on lifetime clozapine prescription had sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 40.0%, 94.7%, 78.3% and 76.7%, respectively. Although a perfect definition of TRS cannot be derived from available prescription and hospital registers, these results indicate that researchers can confidently use registries to identify individuals with TRS for research and clinical practices

Diagnostic tests’ decision-making rules based upon analysis of ROC-curves

In this paper we propose the model which substantiates diagnostics decision making based on the analysis of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (ROC-curves) and predicts optimal values of diagnostic indicators of biomedical information. To assess the quality of the test result prediction the standard criteria of the sensitivity and specificity of the model were used. Values of these criteria were calculated for the cases when the sensitivity of the test was greater than specificity by several times, when the number of correct diagnoses was maximal, when the sensitivity of the test was equal to its specificity and the sensitivity of the test was several times greater than the specificity of the test. To assess the significance of the factor characteristics and to compare the prognostic characteristics of models we used mathematical modeling and plotting the ROC-curves. The optimal value of the diagnostic indicator was found to be achieved when the sensitivity of the test is equal to its specificity. The model was adapted to solve the case when the sensitivity of the test is greater than specificity of the test

Thermography imaging during static and controlled thermoregulation in complex regional pain syndrome type 1: diagnostic value and involvement of the central sympathetic system

BACKGROUND: Complex Regional Pain Syndrome type 1 (CRPS1) is a clinical diagnosis based on criteria describing symptoms of the disease. The main aim of the present study was to compare the sensitivity and specificity of calculation methods used to assess thermographic images (infrared imaging) obtained during temperature provocation. The secondary objective was to obtain information about the involvement of the sympathetic system in CRPS1. METHODS: We studied 12 patients in whom CRPS1 was diagnosed according to the criteria of Bruehl. High and low whole body cooling and warming induced and reduced sympathetic vasoconstrictor activity. The degree of vasoconstrictor activity in both hands was monitored using a videothermograph. The sensitivity and specificity of the calculation methods used to assess the thermographic images were calculated. RESULTS: The temperature difference between the hands in the CRPS patients increases significantly when the sympathetic system is provoked. At both the maximum and minimum vasoconstriction no significant differences were found in fingertip temperatures between both hands. CONCLUSION: The majority of CRPS1 patients do not show maximal obtainable temperature differences between the involved and contralateral extremity at room temperature (static measurement). During cold and warm temperature challenges this temperature difference increases significantly. As a result a higher sensitivity and specificity could be achieved in the diagnosis of CRPS1. These findings suggest that the sympathetic efferent system is involved in CRPS1

Diagnostic Accuracy of the Explicit Diagnostic Criteria for Transient Ischemic Attack:A Validation Study

Background and Purpose-The clinical diagnosis of a transient ischemic attack (TIA) can be difficult. Evidence-based criteria hardly exist. We evaluated if the recently proposed Explicit Diagnostic Criteria for TIA (EDCT), an easy to perform clinical tool focusing on type, duration, and mode of onset of clinical features, would facilitate the clinical diagnosis of TIA. Methods-We used data from patients suspected of a TIA by a general practitioner and referred to a TIA service in the region of Utrecht, the Netherlands, who participated in the MIND-TIA (Markers in the Diagnosis of TIA) study. Information about the clinical features was collected with a standardized questionnaire within 72 hours after onset. A panel of 3 experienced neurologists ultimately determined the definite diagnosis based on all available diagnostic information including a 6-month follow-up period. Two researchers scored the EDCT. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the EDCT were assessed using the panel diagnosis as reference. A secondary analysis was performed with modified subcriteria of the EDCT. Results-Of the 206 patients, 126 (61%) had a TIA (n=104) or minor stroke (n=22), and 80 (39%) an alternative diagnosis. Most common alternative diagnoses were migraine with aura (n=24; 30.0%), stress related or somatoform symptoms (n=16; 20.0%), and syncope (n=9; 11.3%). The original EDCT had a sensitivity of 98.4% (95% CI, 94.4-99.8) and a specificity of 61.3% (49.7-71.9). Negative and positive predictive values were 96.1% (86.0-99.0) and 80.0% (75.2-84.1), respectively. The modified EDCT showed a higher specificity of 73.8% (62.7-83.0) with the same sensitivity and a similar negative predictive value of 96.7%, but a higher positive predictive value of 85.5% (80.3-89.5). Conclusions-The EDCT has excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value and could be a valuable diagnostic tool for the diagnosis of TIA

Acuerdo entre los criterios más utilizados para la clasificación de las espondiloartritis (SpA) y el diagnóstico clínico hecho por un reumatólogo experto en un grupo de pacientes jóvenes con dolor lumbar coránico

6 páginasObjective: To evaluate the performance of the most widely used SpA classification criteria in a Colombian group of patients with chronic low back pain. Methods: We assessed the ASAS and the European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) classification criteria in a group of 133 patients who attended consecutively over a period of six months at outpatient clinic of low back pain. All the patients were evaluated with the same protocol. The patients were divided into two groups according to the diagnosis. The diagnosis was compared with the diagnosis made by a expert rheumatologist blinded to patient information. Results: 81 patients with SpA and 52 with other diagnoses were included. There were no differences in age and age of onset of symptoms between the two groups. The SpA group included 55 males and more common clinical findings were: enthesitis, arthritis, sacroiliitis, HLA-B27-positive, previous infection, and dactylitis. The sensitivity and specificity of criteria were: ASAS criteria 96% of sensibility and 80% of specificity, and ESSG criteria 95% and 100% respectively