Generalized Wald-type Tests based on Minimum Density Power Divergence Estimators

In testing of hypothesis the robustness of the tests is an important concern. Generally, the maximum likelihood based tests are most efficient under standard regularity conditions, but they are highly non-robust even under small deviations from the assumed conditions. In this paper we have proposed generalized Wald-type tests based on minimum density power divergence estimators for parametric hypotheses. This method avoids the use of nonparametric density estimation and the bandwidth selection. The trade-off between efficiency and robustness is controlled by a tuning parameter $\beta$. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are chi-square with appropriate degrees of freedom. The performance of the proposed tests are explored through simulations and real data analysis.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1403.033

The Kentucky Noisy Monte Carlo Algorithm for Wilson Dynamical Fermions

We develop an implementation for a recently proposed Noisy Monte Carlo approach to the simulation of lattice QCD with dynamical fermions by incorporating the full fermion determinant directly. Our algorithm uses a quenched gauge field update with a shifted gauge coupling to minimize fluctuations in the trace log of the Wilson Dirac matrix. The details of tuning the gauge coupling shift as well as results for the distribution of noisy estimators in our implementation are given. We present data for some basic observables from the noisy method, as well as acceptance rate information and discuss potential autocorrelation and sign violation effects. Both the results and the efficiency of the algorithm are compared against those of Hybrid Monte Carlo. PACS Numbers: 12.38.Gc, 11.15.Ha, 02.70.Uu Keywords: Noisy Monte Carlo, Lattice QCD, Determinant, Finite Density, QCDSPComment: 30 pages, 6 figure

Bibliographic Review on Distributed Kalman Filtering

In recent years, a compelling need has arisen to understand the effects of distributed information structures on estimation and filtering. In this paper, a bibliographical review on distributed Kalman filtering (DKF) is provided.\ud The paper contains a classification of different approaches and methods involved to DKF. The applications of DKF are also discussed and explained separately. A comparison of different approaches is briefly carried out. Focuses on the contemporary research are also addressed with emphasis on the practical applications of the techniques. An exhaustive list of publications, linked directly or indirectly to DKF in the open literature, is compiled to provide an overall picture of different developing aspects of this area

Incrementally Learned Mixture Models for GNSS Localization

GNSS localization is an important part of today's autonomous systems, although it suffers from non-Gaussian errors caused by non-line-of-sight effects. Recent methods are able to mitigate these effects by including the corresponding distributions in the sensor fusion algorithm. However, these approaches require prior knowledge about the sensor's distribution, which is often not available. We introduce a novel sensor fusion algorithm based on variational Bayesian inference, that is able to approximate the true distribution with a Gaussian mixture model and to learn its parametrization online. The proposed Incremental Variational Mixture algorithm automatically adapts the number of mixture components to the complexity of the measurement's error distribution. We compare the proposed algorithm against current state-of-the-art approaches using a collection of open access real world datasets and demonstrate its superior localization accuracy.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, published in proceedings of IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV) 201

Joint modeling of longitudinal drug using pattern and time to first relapse in cocaine dependence treatment data

An important endpoint variable in a cocaine rehabilitation study is the time to first relapse of a patient after the treatment. We propose a joint modeling approach based on functional data analysis to study the relationship between the baseline longitudinal cocaine-use pattern and the interval censored time to first relapse. For the baseline cocaine-use pattern, we consider both self-reported cocaine-use amount trajectories and dichotomized use trajectories. Variations within the generalized longitudinal trajectories are modeled through a latent Gaussian process, which is characterized by a few leading functional principal components. The association between the baseline longitudinal trajectories and the time to first relapse is built upon the latent principal component scores. The mean and the eigenfunctions of the latent Gaussian process as well as the hazard function of time to first relapse are modeled nonparametrically using penalized splines, and the parameters in the joint model are estimated by a Monte Carlo EM algorithm based on Metropolis-Hastings steps. An Akaike information criterion (AIC) based on effective degrees of freedom is proposed to choose the tuning parameters, and a modified empirical information is proposed to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of the estimators.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS852 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Optimal selection of reduced rank estimators of high-dimensional matrices

We introduce a new criterion, the Rank Selection Criterion (RSC), for selecting the optimal reduced rank estimator of the coefficient matrix in multivariate response regression models. The corresponding RSC estimator minimizes the Frobenius norm of the fit plus a regularization term proportional to the number of parameters in the reduced rank model. The rank of the RSC estimator provides a consistent estimator of the rank of the coefficient matrix; in general, the rank of our estimator is a consistent estimate of the effective rank, which we define to be the number of singular values of the target matrix that are appropriately large. The consistency results are valid not only in the classic asymptotic regime, when $n$, the number of responses, and $p$, the number of predictors, stay bounded, and $m$, the number of observations, grows, but also when either, or both, $n$ and $p$ grow, possibly much faster than $m$. We establish minimax optimal bounds on the mean squared errors of our estimators. Our finite sample performance bounds for the RSC estimator show that it achieves the optimal balance between the approximation error and the penalty term. Furthermore, our procedure has very low computational complexity, linear in the number of candidate models, making it particularly appealing for large scale problems. We contrast our estimator with the nuclear norm penalized least squares (NNP) estimator, which has an inherently higher computational complexity than RSC, for multivariate regression models. We show that NNP has estimation properties similar to those of RSC, albeit under stronger conditions. However, it is not as parsimonious as RSC. We offer a simple correction of the NNP estimator which leads to consistent rank estimation.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS876 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org) (some typos corrected

Efficient Optimization of Loops and Limits with Randomized Telescoping Sums

We consider optimization problems in which the objective requires an inner loop with many steps or is the limit of a sequence of increasingly costly approximations. Meta-learning, training recurrent neural networks, and optimization of the solutions to differential equations are all examples of optimization problems with this character. In such problems, it can be expensive to compute the objective function value and its gradient, but truncating the loop or using less accurate approximations can induce biases that damage the overall solution. We propose randomized telescope (RT) gradient estimators, which represent the objective as the sum of a telescoping series and sample linear combinations of terms to provide cheap unbiased gradient estimates. We identify conditions under which RT estimators achieve optimization convergence rates independent of the length of the loop or the required accuracy of the approximation. We also derive a method for tuning RT estimators online to maximize a lower bound on the expected decrease in loss per unit of computation. We evaluate our adaptive RT estimators on a range of applications including meta-optimization of learning rates, variational inference of ODE parameters, and training an LSTM to model long sequences