Autoregressive time series prediction by means of fuzzy inference systems using nonparametric residual variance estimation

We propose an automatic methodology framework for short- and long-term prediction of time series by means of fuzzy inference systems. In this methodology, fuzzy techniques and statistical techniques for nonparametric residual variance estimation are combined in order to build autoregressive predictive models implemented as fuzzy inference systems. Nonparametric residual variance estimation plays a key role in driving the identification and learning procedures. Concrete criteria and procedures within the proposed methodology framework are applied to a number of time series prediction problems. The learn from examples method introduced by Wang and Mendel (W&M) is used for identification. The Levenberg–Marquardt (L–M) optimization method is then applied for tuning. The W&M method produces compact and potentially accurate inference systems when applied after a proper variable selection stage. The L–M method yields the best compromise between accuracy and interpretability of results, among a set of alternatives. Delta test based residual variance estimations are used in order to select the best subset of inputs to the fuzzy inference systems as well as the number of linguistic labels for the inputs. Experiments on a diverse set of time series prediction benchmarks are compared against least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), and k-NN based autoregressors. The advantages of the proposed methodology are shown in terms of linguistic interpretability, generalization capability and computational cost. Furthermore, fuzzy models are shown to be consistently more accurate for prediction in the case of time series coming from real-world applications.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TEC2008-04920Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-03674, IAC07-I-0205:33080, IAC08-II-3347:5626

An Incremental Construction of Deep Neuro Fuzzy System for Continual Learning of Non-stationary Data Streams

Existing FNNs are mostly developed under a shallow network configuration having lower generalization power than those of deep structures. This paper proposes a novel self-organizing deep FNN, namely DEVFNN. Fuzzy rules can be automatically extracted from data streams or removed if they play limited role during their lifespan. The structure of the network can be deepened on demand by stacking additional layers using a drift detection method which not only detects the covariate drift, variations of input space, but also accurately identifies the real drift, dynamic changes of both feature space and target space. DEVFNN is developed under the stacked generalization principle via the feature augmentation concept where a recently developed algorithm, namely gClass, drives the hidden layer. It is equipped by an automatic feature selection method which controls activation and deactivation of input attributes to induce varying subsets of input features. A deep network simplification procedure is put forward using the concept of hidden layer merging to prevent uncontrollable growth of dimensionality of input space due to the nature of feature augmentation approach in building a deep network structure. DEVFNN works in the sample-wise fashion and is compatible for data stream applications. The efficacy of DEVFNN has been thoroughly evaluated using seven datasets with non-stationary properties under the prequential test-then-train protocol. It has been compared with four popular continual learning algorithms and its shallow counterpart where DEVFNN demonstrates improvement of classification accuracy. Moreover, it is also shown that the concept drift detection method is an effective tool to control the depth of network structure while the hidden layer merging scenario is capable of simplifying the network complexity of a deep network with negligible compromise of generalization performance.Comment: This paper has been published in IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy System

Autonomous Vehicle Coordination with Wireless Sensor and Actuator Networks

A coordinated team of mobile wireless sensor and actuator nodes can bring numerous benefits for various applications in the field of cooperative surveillance, mapping unknown areas, disaster management, automated highway and space exploration. This article explores the idea of mobile nodes using vehicles on wheels, augmented with wireless, sensing, and control capabilities. One of the vehicles acts as a leader, being remotely driven by the user, the others represent the followers. Each vehicle has a low-power wireless sensor node attached, featuring a 3D accelerometer and a magnetic compass. Speed and orientation are computed in real time using inertial navigation techniques. The leader periodically transmits these measures to the followers, which implement a lightweight fuzzy logic controller for imitating the leader's movement pattern. We report in detail on all development phases, covering design, simulation, controller tuning, inertial sensor evaluation, calibration, scheduling, fixed-point computation, debugging, benchmarking, field experiments, and lessons learned

Self-Configuring and Evolving Fuzzy Image Thresholding

Every segmentation algorithm has parameters that need to be adjusted in order to achieve good results. Evolving fuzzy systems for adjustment of segmentation parameters have been proposed recently (Evolving fuzzy image segmentation -- EFIS [1]. However, similar to any other algorithm, EFIS too suffers from a few limitations when used in practice. As a major drawback, EFIS depends on detection of the object of interest for feature calculation, a task that is highly application-dependent. In this paper, a new version of EFIS is proposed to overcome these limitations. The new EFIS, called self-configuring EFIS (SC-EFIS), uses available training data to auto-configure the parameters that are fixed in EFIS. As well, the proposed SC-EFIS relies on a feature selection process that does not require the detection of a region of interest (ROI).Comment: To appear in proceedings of The 14th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (IEEE ICMLA 2015), Miami, Florida, USA, 201

Thermal comfort based fuzzy logic control

Most heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) control systems are considered as temperature control problems. In this work, the predicted mean vote (PMV) is used to control the indoor temperature of a space by setting it at a point where the PMV index becomes zero and the predicted percentage of persons dissatisfied (PPD) achieves a maximum threshold of 5%. This is achieved through the use of a fuzzy logic controller that takes into account a range of human comfort criteria in the formulation of the control action that should be applied to the heating system to bring the space to comfort conditions. The resulting controller is free of the set up and tuning problems that hinder conventional HVAC controllers. Simulation results show that the proposed control strategy makes it possible to maximize the indoor thermal comfort and, correspondingly, a reduction in energy use of 20% was obtained for a typical 7-day winter period when compared with conventional control

Design an intelligent controller for full vehicle nonlinear active suspension systems

The main objective of designed the controller for a vehicle suspension system is to reduce the discomfort sensed by passengers which arises from road roughness and to increase the ride handling associated with the pitching and rolling movements. This necessitates a very fast and accurate controller to meet as much control objectives, as possible. Therefore, this paper deals with an artificial intelligence Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) technique to design a robust controller to meet the control objectives. The advantage of this controller is that it can handle the nonlinearities faster than other conventional controllers. The approach of the proposed controller is to minimize the vibrations on each corner of vehicle by supplying control forces to suspension system when travelling on rough road. The other purpose for using the NF controller for vehicle model is to reduce the body inclinations that are made during intensive manoeuvres including braking and cornering. A full vehicle nonlinear active suspension system is introduced and tested. The robustness of the proposed controller is being assessed by comparing with an optimal Fractional Order (FOPID) controller. The results show that the intelligent NF controller has improved the dynamic response measured by decreasing the cost function