7 research outputs found
Quickest Detection and Forecast of Pandemic Outbreaks: Analysis of COVID-19 Waves
The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7
million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under
heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restriction measures adopted by
political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the
outbreak of new pandemic's waves. In this article, we propose an integrated
detection-estimation-forecasting framework that, using publicly available data
published by the national authorities, is designed to: (i) learn relevant
features of the epidemic (e.g., the infection rate); (ii) detect as quickly as
possible the onset (or the termination) of an exponential growth of the
contagion; and (iii) reliably forecast the epidemic evolution. The proposed
solution is validated by analyzing the COVID-19 second and third waves in the
USA.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Communications Magazine, feature topic "Networking
Technologies to Combat the COVID-19 Pandemic