An Implementation of Bayesian Adaptive Regression Splines (BARS) in C with S and R Wrappers

BARS (DiMatteo, Genovese, and Kass 2001) uses the powerful reversible-jump MCMC engine to perform spline-based generalized nonparametric regression. It has been shown to work well in terms of having small mean-squared error in many examples (smaller than known competitors), as well as producing visually-appealing fits that are smooth (filtering out high-frequency noise) while adapting to sudden changes (retaining high-frequency signal). However, BARS is computationally intensive. The original implementation in S was too slow to be practical in certain situations, and was found to handle some data sets incorrectly. We have implemented BARS in C for the normal and Poisson cases, the latter being important in neurophysiological and other point-process applications. The C implementation includes all needed subroutines for fitting Poisson regression, manipulating B-splines (using code created by Bates and Venables), and finding starting values for Poisson regression (using code for density estimation created by Kooperberg). The code utilizes only freely-available external libraries (LAPACK and BLAS) and is otherwise self-contained. We have also provided wrappers so that BARS can be used easily within S or R.

A Differentiable Generative Adversarial Network for Open Domain Dialogue

Paper presented at the IWSDS 2019: International Workshop on Spoken Dialogue Systems Technology, Siracusa, Italy, April 24-26, 2019This work presents a novel methodology to train open domain neural dialogue systems within the framework of Generative Adversarial Networks with gradient-based optimization methods. We avoid the non-differentiability related to text-generating networks approximating the word vector corresponding to each generated token via a top-k softmax. We show that a weighted average of the word vectors of the most probable tokens computed from the probabilities resulting of the top-k softmax leads to a good approximation of the word vector of the generated token. Finally we demonstrate through a human evaluation process that training a neural dialogue system via adversarial learning with this method successfully discourages it from producing generic responses. Instead it tends to produce more informative and variate ones.This work has been partially funded by the Basque Government under grant PRE_2017_1_0357, by the University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU under grant PIF17/310, and by the H2020 RIA EMPATHIC (Grant N: 769872)

Model Selection and Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Cointegrated VAR model

This paper develops a matrix-variate adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressions (CVAR). We replace the popular approach to sampling Bayesian CVAR models, involving griddy Gibbs, with an automated efficient alternative, based on the Adaptive Metropolis algorithm of Roberts and Rosenthal, (2009). Developing the adaptive MCMC framework for Bayesian CVAR models allows for efficient estimation of posterior parameters in significantly higher dimensional CVAR series than previously possible with existing griddy Gibbs samplers. For a n-dimensional CVAR series, the matrix-variate posterior is in dimension $3n^2 + n$, with significant correlation present between the blocks of matrix random variables. We also treat the rank of the CVAR model as a random variable and perform joint inference on the rank and model parameters. This is achieved with a Bayesian posterior distribution defined over both the rank and the CVAR model parameters, and inference is made via Bayes Factor analysis of rank. Practically the adaptive sampler also aids in the development of automated Bayesian cointegration models for algorithmic trading systems considering instruments made up of several assets, such as currency baskets. Previously the literature on financial applications of CVAR trading models typically only considers pairs trading (n=2) due to the computational cost of the griddy Gibbs. We are able to extend under our adaptive framework to $n >> 2$ and demonstrate an example with n = 10, resulting in a posterior distribution with parameters up to dimension 310. By also considering the rank as a random quantity we can ensure our resulting trading models are able to adjust to potentially time varying market conditions in a coherent statistical framework.Comment: to appear journal Bayesian Analysi

Fractional Spectral Moments for Digital Simulation of Multivariate Wind Velocity Fields

In this paper, a method for the digital simulation of wind velocity fields by Fractional Spectral Moment function is proposed. It is shown that by constructing a digital filter whose coefficients are the fractional spectral moments, it is possible to simulate samples of the target process as superposition of Riesz fractional derivatives of a Gaussian white noise processes. The key of this simulation technique is the generalized Taylor expansion proposed by the authors. The method is extended to multivariate processes and practical issues on the implementation of the method are reported.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

Variance Reduction Techniques in Monte Carlo Methods

Monte Carlo methods are simulation algorithms to estimate a numerical quantity in a statistical model of a real system. These algorithms are executed by computer programs. Variance reduction techniques (VRT) are needed, even though computer speed has been increasing dramatically, ever since the introduction of computers. This increased computer power has stimulated simulation analysts to develop ever more realistic models, so that the net result has not been faster execution of simulation experiments; e.g., some modern simulation models need hours or days for a single ’run’ (one replication of one scenario or combination of simulation input values). Moreover there are some simulation models that represent rare events which have extremely small probabilities of occurrence), so even modern computer would take ’for ever’ (centuries) to execute a single run - were it not that special VRT can reduce theses excessively long runtimes to practical magnitudes.common random numbers;antithetic random numbers;importance sampling;control variates;conditioning;stratied sampling;splitting;quasi Monte Carlo