A Model for Seasonal Dynamic Networks

Sociotechnological and geospatial processes exhibit time varying structure that make insight discovery challenging. This paper presents statistical model of systems with seasonal dynamics, modeled as a dynamic network, to address this challenge. It assumes the probability of edge formations depend on a type assigned to incident nodes and the current time. Time dependencies are modeled by unique seasonal processes. The model is studied on several synthetic and real datasets. Superior fidelity of this model on seasonal datasets compared to existing network models, while being able to remain equally accurate for networks with randomly changing structure, is shown. The model is found to be twice as accurate at predicting future edge counts over competing models on New York City taxi trips, U.S. airline flights, and email communication within the Enron company. An anomaly detection use case for the model is shown for NYC traffic dynamics and email communications between Enron employees

Métodos para melhora da análise visual de redes em fluxo contínuo de dados

Temporal networks (also known as dynamic networks) are often used to model connections that occur over time between parts of a system by using nodes and edges. In temporal networks, all nodes, edges, and times, are known and available to be used in the analysis. However, in several real-world applications, data are produced in a massive and continuous way, which is known as data stream. In this case, the volume of data may be so large that the storage may be impossible and mining tasks become more challenging. In streaming temporal networks, edges are continuously arriving in non-stationary distribution. In both temporal and streaming temporal networks, patterns related to node and edge activity are typically irregular in time, which makes the visualization of such networks helpful to gain insights about network structure and dynamics. Nevertheless, the non-stationary distribution of incoming data increases complexity and turns the streaming temporal network visualization even more challenging. Several visualization layouts have been proposed, but they all have limitations. The main challenge in this context is the amount of visual information, that increases depending on the network size and density, and causes visual clutter due to edge overlap, fine temporal resolution, and node proximity. In this thesis, we propose methods to enhance the visualization of streaming temporal networks through the manipulation of the three network dimensions, namely node, edge, and time. Specifically, we propose: (i) CNO, a visual scalable node ordering method; (ii) SEVis, a streaming edge sampling method; and (iii) a streaming method that adapts the temporal resolution according to local levels of node activity. We also present a comparative study considering the combination of these methods. We show through case studies with real-world networks that each of these methods greatly improves layout readability, thus leading to a fast and reliable decision making.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorTese (Doutorado)Redes temporais (ou dinâmicas) são frequentemente usadas para modelar conexões que ocorrem ao longo do tempo entre partes de um sistema por meio de nós e arestas. Nessas redes, todos os nós, arestas e instantes de tempo são conhecidos e estão disponíveis para serem utilizados na análise. Entretanto, em várias situações reais, dados são produzidos de forma massiva e contínua, o que é conhecido como fluxo contínuo de dados (FCD). Nesse tipo de aplicação, o volume de dados pode ser tão grande que o armazenamento deles pode ser impossível e as tarefas de mineração se tornam ainda mais desafiadoras. Em redes provenientes de FCD, arestas são continuamente adicionadas em distribuição não-estacionária. Tanto em redes temporais quanto em redes em FCD, padrões relacionados à atividade de nós e arestas são tipicamente irregulares ao longo do tempo, o que torna a visualização dessas redes útil para obter insights sobre a estrutura e dinâmica delas. Por outro lado, a distribuição não-estacionária aumenta a complexidade e torna a visualização de redes em FCD ainda mais desafiadora. Vários layouts visuais foram propostos até hoje, mas todos possuem limitações. O principal desafio é a quantidade de informação visual, que aumenta dependendo do tamanho e densidade da rede e causa poluição visual devido à sobreposição de arestas, resolução temporal e proximidade dos nós. Nesta tese, nós propomos métodos para melhorar a visualização de redes em FCD por meio da manipulação das três dimensões da rede: nó, aresta e tempo. Mais especificamente, nós propomos: (i) CNO, um método de ordenação de nós visualmente escalável; (ii) SEVis, um método de amostragem de arestas em FCD; (iii) um método para FCD que adapta a resolução temporal de acordo com níveis locais de atividade de nós. Também apresentamos um estudo comparativo considerando a combinação destes métodos. Por meio de estudos de caso com redes reais, mostramos que cada um dos métodos melhora bastante a legibilidade do layout, levando a uma tomada de decisão rápida e confiável

A comparison of the CAR and DAGAR spatial random effects models with an application to diabetics rate estimation in Belgium

When hierarchically modelling an epidemiological phenomenon on a finite collection of sites in space, one must always take a latent spatial effect into account in order to capture the correlation structure that links the phenomenon to the territory. In this work, we compare two autoregressive spatial models that can be used for this purpose: the classical CAR model and the more recent DAGAR model. Differently from the former, the latter has a desirable property: its ρ parameter can be naturally interpreted as the average neighbor pair correlation and, in addition, this parameter can be directly estimated when the effect is modelled using a DAGAR rather than a CAR structure. As an application, we model the diabetics rate in Belgium in 2014 and show the adequacy of these models in predicting the response variable when no covariates are available

A Statistical Approach to the Alignment of fMRI Data

Multi-subject functional Magnetic Resonance Image studies are critical. The anatomical and functional structure varies across subjects, so the image alignment is necessary. We define a probabilistic model to describe functional alignment. Imposing a prior distribution, as the matrix Fisher Von Mises distribution, of the orthogonal transformation parameter, the anatomical information is embedded in the estimation of the parameters, i.e., penalizing the combination of spatially distant voxels. Real applications show an improvement in the classification and interpretability of the results compared to various functional alignment methods

Three Risky Decades: A Time for Econophysics?

Our Special Issue we publish at a turning point, which we have not dealt with since World War II. The interconnected long-term global shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and catastrophic climate change have imposed significant humanitary, socio-economic, political, and environmental restrictions on the globalization process and all aspects of economic and social life including the existence of individual people. The planet is trapped—the current situation seems to be the prelude to an apocalypse whose long-term effects we will have for decades. Therefore, it urgently requires a concept of the planet's survival to be built—only on this basis can the conditions for its development be created. The Special Issue gives evidence of the state of econophysics before the current situation. Therefore, it can provide excellent econophysics or an inter-and cross-disciplinary starting point of a rational approach to a new era

Reports to the President

A compilation of annual reports for the 1985-1986 academic year, including a report from the President of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as well as reports from the academic and administrative units of the Institute. The reports outline the year's goals, accomplishments, honors and awards, and future plans