Migration patterns under different scenarios of sea level rise

We propose a framework to examine future migration patterns of people under different sea level rise scenarios using models of human migration. Specifically, we couple a sea level rise model with a data-driven model of human migration, creating a generalized joint model of climate driven migration that can be used to simulate population distributions under potential future sea level rise scenarios. We show how this joint model relaxes assumptions in existing efforts to model climate driven human migration, and use it to simulate how migration, driven by sea level rise, differs from baseline migration patterns. Our results show that the effects of sea level rise are pervasive, expanding beyond coastal areas via increased migration, and disproportionately affecting some areas of the United States. The code for reproducing this study is available at https://github.com/calebrob6/migration-slr.Comment: In submission to PLOS On

Radio-telemetry observations of the first 650 km of the migration of Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica from the Wadden Sea to the Russian Arctic

In 1999 and 2000, 45 Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica were supplied with radio-transmitters during spring staging on the island Texel in the western Wadden Sea. With the use of Automatic Radio Tracking Stations (ARTS) on Texel and in south Sweden, and hand-held receivers on Texel, it was possible to follow the later part of the stopover period on Texel for 34 birds (76%) and the passage over south Sweden for 26 birds (58%). Thus, the method of automatic tracking of overflying migrating shorebirds works successfully where the migration corridor is narrow and predictable, as in the case with late spring shorebird migration from the Wadden Sea towards arctic Russia. The timing of departure from Texel and passage over south Sweden of radio-marked birds, with median dates of 30 May and 2 June respectively, were in agreement with published data on the spring migration of Siberian-breeding Bar-tailed Godwits L. l. taymyrensis. The individual variation in migration dates was larger than expected, with birds passing south Sweden between 25 May and 10 June, indicating that the time-window for departure might be broader than previously thought. There was no clear difference between males and females in timing of migration. The time difference between departure from Texel and passage over south Sweden (average 3.3 days) indicates that most Bar-tailed Godwits do not embark on the long flight towards Siberia directly from the western Wadden Sea, but are more likely to stop in the more easterly portion of the Wadden Sea before the final take-off. This pattern is similar to what has been found in other shorebirds and geese (e.g. Red Knots Calidris canutus and Dark-bellied Brent Geese Branta bernicla) migrating along the same route.

Baseline and Stress-Induced Plasma Corticosterone during Long-Distance Migration in the Bar-Tailed Godwit, Limosa lapponica

The specific roles of corticosterone in promotion of avian migration remain unclear even though this glucocorticosteroid is elevated in many migrating bird species. In general, glucocorticosteroids promote metabolic homeostasis and may elicit effects on feeding and locomotion. Because the migratory stages of refueling and flight are characterized by distinct behaviors and physiology, the determination of corticosterone levels during each stage should help identify potential processes in which corticosterone is involved. We measured baseline levels of corticosterone in bar-tailed godwits (Limosa lapponica) during two distinct stages of migration: (1) immediately after arrival at a false stopover site just short of theWadden Sea and (2) throughout the subsequent 4-wk refueling period on the Wadden Sea. Plasma corticosterone was higher in arriving than in refueling birds. In addition, corticosterone increased with size-corrected body mass during the refueling phase, suggesting that corticosterone rises as birds prepare to reinitiate flight. Therefore, elevated corticosterone appears associated with migratory flight and may participate in processes characterizing this stage. We also performed a capture stress protocol in all birds and found that corticosterone increased in both arriving and refueling godwits. Therefore, the normal course of migration may be typified by corticosterone concentrations that are lower than those associated with stressful and life-threatening episodes.

Shorter juvenile telomere length is associated with higher survival to spawning in migratory Atlantic salmon

The risk of mortality associated with a long-distance migration will depend on an animal's physiological state, as well as the prevailing ecological conditions. Here we assess whether juvenile telomere length, which in endotherms has been shown to be a biomarker of physiological state and expected lifespan, predicts whether wild Atlantic salmon Salmo salar successfully complete their marine migration. Over 1800 juvenile fish were trapped, measured, PIT-tagged and a tissue biopsy taken when migrating as juveniles down-river towards the sea. Survivors of the marine phase of the life cycle were then re-trapped and re-sampled when returning to the river to spawn as sexually mature adults, 1.5-2.5 years later. Most individuals experienced a reduction in telomere length during the marine migratory phase of their life cycle. While the relative rate of telomere loss was greater in males than females, telomere loss was unrelated to growth at sea. Contrary to expectations, salmon that had the shortest telomeres at the time of the outward migration had the greatest probability of surviving through to the return migration. This effect, independent of body size, may indicate a trade-off between investment in readiness for marine life (which favours high glucocorticoid levels, known to increase telomere attrition in other vertebrate species) and investment in telomere maintenance. Survival was also significantly influenced by the seasonal timing of outward migration, with the fish migrating downstream earliest in the spring having the highest probability of return. This study reveals that telomere length is associated with survival, although in ways that contrast with patterns seen in endotherms. This illustrates that while telomeres may be universally important for chromosome protection, the potential for telomere dynamics to predict performance may vary across taxa

Evidence of the selection of tidal streams by northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) for transport in the eastern Bering Sea

Depth data from archival tags on northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) were examined to assess whether fish used tidal currents to aid horizontal migration. Two northern rock sole, out of 115 released with archival tags in the eastern Bering Sea, were recovered 314 and 667 days after release. Both fish made periodic excursions away from the bottom during mostly night-time hours, but also during particular phases of the tide cycle. One fish that was captured and released in an area of rotary currents made vertical excursions that were correlated with tidal current direction. To test the hypothesis that the fish made vertical excursions to use tidal currents to aid migration, a hypothetical migratory path was calculated using a tide model to predict the current direction and speed during periods when the fish was off the bottom. This migration included limited movements from July through December, followed by a 200-km southern migration from January through February, then a return northward in March and April. The successful application of tidal current information to predict a horizontal migratory path not only provides evidence of selective tidal stream transport but indicates that vertical excursions were conducted primarily to assist horizontal migration

Norwegian Sea Herring Stock Discrimination phase I (NORDISI)

There is growing concern among fishermen about the migration of North Sea herring into the Norwegian Sea. The Pelagic Freezer-trawler Association therefore commissioned IMARES to develop a technique to monitor possible catches of North Sea herring in the Norwegian Sea. This technique will use morphometric (shape) differences in herring to distinguish between Norwegian Sea spawning herring and North Sea herring. The results show that the model is able to distinguish Norwegian spring spawning herring from North Sea autumn or winter spawning herring. Overall we can conclude that even though we still have to overcome some methodological problems we are confident that this research constitutes a first step towards developing a technique to monitor catches of herring from the Norwegian Sea for Norwegian Spring spawning or other herring

A nuclear magnetic resonance investigation of brine inclusions in Antarctic and artificial sea ice : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Physics at Massey University

Additional images with the print copy held in the library.The aim of this thesis is to use Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) techniques to examine the brine pockets in sea ice. Both the movement of the brine pockets within the ice, and the movement of the brine within the brine pockets is examined. The experiments are carried out using Earth's field NMR on sea ice in situ in Antarctica, and high field NMR equipment on artificially grown sea ice in New Zealand. The field work involved probe design, construction, and use. Investigations were carried out on brine content, and brine diffusion rates. The laboratory work involved growing realistic artificial sea ice, designing and constructing a temperature control system for the high field NMR machine, and carrying out experiments on the artificial sea ice samples. The brine pockets' morphology and distribution was examined. The brine and brine pocket movements over time, with a controlled temperature gradient, were also investigated. The results from the field work clearly showed multiple diffusion rates in sea ice, both faster and slower than that of water. The lab work showed that realistic sea ice had been grown, and that there was a migration of brine pockets in the direction of the temperature gradient

Demography of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) ammocoete populations in relation to potential spawning-migration obstructions

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Recent advances in the understanding of lamprey migrations have led to concerns over the impacts of obstructions on the demography of many species. This study investigated sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) larvae (ammocoetes) in two adjacent but contrasting rivers, both designated Special Areas of Conservation under the EC Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), one (the River Wye) with a small number of potential migration obstructions in its upper reaches and one (the River Usk) with obstacles along its course. The geographical distributions, densities and age structures of the ammocoete populations were examined in relation to the locations of potential obstructions to the spawning migrations of anadromous adults. A minimum of three age classes was recorded as far as 200 km upstream of the mouth of the River Wye (93% of the length of the mainstem), demonstrating that adults regularly migrate to the upper reaches of the catchment (downstream of a natural waterfall). By contrast, sea lamprey ammocoetes appeared to be absent (in suitable habitat) from 20 km (17%) of the River Usk, and there was a reduction in density, prevalence and the number of age classes upstream of two putative spawning-migration obstructions. This study highlights some of the potential impacts of habitat fragmentation by obstructions on the spawning migrations of anadromous species, as inferred from ammocoete demography. When used in combination to compare contiguous reaches, ammocoete densities, prevalence and age structure may be a useful indicator of which structures are likely to be important migration obstructions, and where further studies or mitigation efforts should be focused. It is likely that passage past some obstructions is enhanced if high river levels occur during the spawning migration, but there is a need to facilitate passage during all conditions, to improve access to under-exploited spawning and nursery areas

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future

Who will leave? Oil, migration, and Scottish island youth

Rural communities facing the prospect of rapid energy development consider trade‐offs between economic benefits and “way of life”; as disruption. One of ten‐cited but unproved benefit of development is increased retention of local youth, who otherwise tend to migrate away. Using survey data from high school students of Scotland\u27s Shetland and Orkney Islands (affected by North Sea oil development), we explore relations between intentions to migrate and individual background, aspirations, and attitudes. Attitudes toward oil development do not predict migration intentions. Instead, migration intentions are predicted by essentially the same variables identified in other studies, in areas where energy development was not occurring. Thus, we found no evidence that oil development fundamentally changed young people\u27s thoughts about leaving