A Framework for Intelligent Inventory Prediction in Small and Medium- Scale Enterprise

The aim of this research is to apply an intelligent technique to predict optimal inventory quantity in small and medium-scale enterprise. This is in view of the fact that the conventional models such as the EOQ model use only deterministic while some decision variables are non- deterministic in nature. Forecasted average demand of items for ten months in a small-scale retail outlet was collected and trained using an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) of 5 neurons in the input layer with eight neurons in the first hidden layer and four neurons in the second hidden layer. Two feed-forward training algorithms of quasi-newton and quick propagation were employed in the training with the results of fuzzy logic technology found in the literature as the target output. Results obtained show that the quasi-newton algorithm covaries stronger with the fuzzy logic results than the quick propagation results. The objective and subjective feelings of the inventory manager were also captured to optimise the results of the training. The study is at a framework stage and will proceed to implementation level when more datasets are collected. Data collection in a small-scale outlet is a daunting task as record keeping is hardly done. The inclusion of non-deterministic circumstances such as emotional and objective feelings of the inventory manager to predict inventory is novel considering the fact that studies in the available intelligent inventory prediction have not employed such variables in their predictions. Keywords: Artificial Neural networks, Fuzzy logic, Quasi newton, Quick propagation, EOQ, Inventory, Forecast. DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/13-2-03 Publication date: January 31st 202

A framework for intelligent inventory prediction in small and medium- scale enterprise.

The aim of this research is to apply an intelligent technique to predict optimal inventory quantity in small and medium-scale enterprise. This is in view of the fact that the conventional models such as the EOQ model use only deterministic while some decision variables are non-deterministic in nature. Forecasted average demand of items for ten months in a small-scale retail outlet was collected and trained using an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) of 5 neurons in the input layer with eight neurons in the first hidden layer and four neurons in the second hidden layer. Two feed-forward training algorithms of quasi-newton and quick propagation were employed in the training with the results of fuzzy logic technology found in the literature as the target output. Results obtained show that the quasi-newton algorithm covaries stronger with the fuzzy logic results than the quick propagation results. The objective and subjective feelings of the inventory manager were also captured to optimise the results of the training. The study is at a framework stage and will proceed to implementation level when more datasets are collected. Data collection in a small-scale outlet is a daunting task as record keeping is hardly done. The inclusion of non-deterministic circumstances such as emotional and objective feelings of the inventory manager to predict inventory is novel considering the fact that studies in the available intelligent inventory prediction have not employed such variables in their predictions

Organizational readiness for implementation of Supply Chain Analytics

Supply chains today are amassed with data. To remain competitive in a global economy, supply chain organizations need to constantly derive meaningful information from this plethora of data and make critical business decisions. This process is also referred to as Supply Chain Analytics (SCA). This paper attempts to measure the readiness of organizations to implement Business Analytics – a more generic form of SCA. The results were derived from the survey analysis of 112 respondents in 7 countries from various industries and professional backgrounds. This survey analyzed organizations in four broad categories – standardized and integrated data, well-established infrastructure, sound technical and non-technical expertise and the organizational culture and strategy – and attempted to determine their readiness for implementing Analytics in the organization

Predictive Big Data Analytics for Supply Chain Demand Forecasting: Methods, Applications, and Research Opportunities

Big data analytics (BDA) in supply chain management (SCM) is receiving a growing attention. This is due to the fact that BDA has a wide range of applications in SCM, including customer behavior analysis, trend analysis, and demand prediction. In this survey, we investigate the predictive BDA applications in supply chain demand forecasting to propose a classification of these applications, identify the gaps, and provide insights for future research. We classify these algorithms and their applications in supply chain management into time-series forecasting, clustering, K-nearest-neighbors, neural networks, regression analysis, support vector machines, and support vector regression. This survey also points to the fact that the literature is particularly lacking on the applications of BDA for demand forecasting in the case of closed-loop supply chains (CLSCs) and accordingly highlights avenues for future research

Towards A Computational Intelligence Framework in Steel Product Quality and Cost Control

Steel is a fundamental raw material for all industries. It can be widely used in vari-ous fields, including construction, bridges, ships, containers, medical devices and cars. However, the production process of iron and steel is very perplexing, which consists of four processes: ironmaking, steelmaking, continuous casting and rolling. It is also extremely complicated to control the quality of steel during the full manufacturing pro-cess. Therefore, the quality control of steel is considered as a huge challenge for the whole steel industry. This thesis studies the quality control, taking the case of Nanjing Iron and Steel Group, and then provides new approaches for quality analysis, manage-ment and control of the industry. At present, Nanjing Iron and Steel Group has established a quality management and control system, which oversees many systems involved in the steel manufacturing. It poses a high statistical requirement for business professionals, resulting in a limited use of the system. A lot of data of quality has been collected in each system. At present, all systems mainly pay attention to the processing and analysis of the data after the manufacturing process, and the quality problems of the products are mainly tested by sampling-experimental method. This method cannot detect product quality or predict in advance the hidden quality issues in a timely manner. In the quality control system, the responsibilities and functions of different information systems involved are intricate. Each information system is merely responsible for storing the data of its corresponding functions. Hence, the data in each information system is relatively isolated, forming a data island. The iron and steel production process belongs to the process industry. The data in multiple information systems can be combined to analyze and predict the quality of products in depth and provide an early warning alert. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce new product quality control methods in the steel industry. With the waves of industry 4.0 and intelligent manufacturing, intelligent technology has also been in-troduced in the field of quality control to improve the competitiveness of the iron and steel enterprises in the industry. Applying intelligent technology can generate accurate quality analysis and optimal prediction results based on the data distributed in the fac-tory and determine the online adjustment of the production process. This not only gives rise to the product quality control, but is also beneficial to in the reduction of product costs. Inspired from this, this paper provide in-depth discussion in three chapters: (1) For scrap steel to be used as raw material, how to use artificial intelligence algorithms to evaluate its quality grade is studied in chapter 3; (2) the probability that the longi-tudinal crack occurs on the surface of continuous casting slab is studied in chapter 4;(3) The prediction of mechanical properties of finished steel plate in chapter 5. All these 3 chapters will serve as the technical support of quality control in iron and steel production

Management and control of inventory : the case study of a South African Company

Abstract: Costs associated with backlog and significant inventories affect the company’s profit. An inventory is a crucial aspect in controlling and reducing supply chain costs and improving customer satisfaction. Predicting inventory is difficult due to the number of dependences which need to be satisfied like customer demand, production plans and procurement policies. This study aims to identify the causes of high inventory levels at case study company and suggest ways to manage and control inventory levels. The study used quantitative and qualitative methods to collect the evidence required to answer the research questions. Data were also collected from the questionnaire and document reviews. Tools, such as a cause and effect diagram, trend analysis and histograms, were employed to analyse data and causes of the inventory levels. Results indicate that deficient planning of sales, early purchases of materials, early delivering of materials, inventory inaccuracy, high work-in-process and deficient coordination, are causes for high inventory levels. Case study company management is recommended to align the three plans, namely: sales plan, purchase plan and inventory plan.M.Phil. (Engineering Management

Examining Dimensions and Components and Application of Supply Chain Financing (In Chain Stores)

Purpose: Supply Chain Finance (SCF) is a new approach in financing the working capital of economic enterprises, which can ultimately lead to economic growth and financial stability through efficient and smooth allocation of financial resources, improving financial risk management and increasing financial inclusion. Supply chain financing which runs parallel to the flow of goods and information, is common to all financing networks, and therefore it is important to understand its dimensions. The financing chain provides the cash flow needed to ensure the doors are kept open, the lights are on, employees are paid, and products are produced and shipped. Methodology: To achieve this goal, SCF uses principles that have been effective in supply chain management (SCM) for decades. The core of this financing chain is to create an optimization plan that can simultaneously control all supply chain financial processes. Findings: According to these cases, in this paper, considering the importance of managing the financial flow along the chain and using the principles and basics of research in the method of fact-finding and case study, an effort was made by examining the characteristics, dimensions and components of financing in the supply chain. As well as practical experiences in this field, a conceptual framework for the effective use of the financial flow management system as well as its principles and foundations should be provided. Originality/Value: In this paper, we will examine dimensions and components and application of supply chain financing (in chain stores)

Cyber-physical business systems modelling : advancing Industry 4.0

Abstract: The dynamic digital age drives contemporary multinationals to focus on delivering world-class business solutions with the use of advanced technology. Contemporary multinationals relate to a present-day business primarily engaged to generate profits. These complex multinationals offer value through the manufacture, sale, and management of products and services. Disruptive strategies in operations driven by emerging technological innovations demand continuous business improvements. These insightful opportunities are inclusive of operations, enterprise systems, engineering management, and research. Business sustainability is a strategic priority to deliver exceptional digital solutions. The Fourth Industrial Revolutions (4IR) offer significant technological advancements for total business sustainability. The underlying 4IR technologies include Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). The collective challenges of a large global business are not easy to predict. CPS protocols deliver sustainable prospects required to integrate and model physical systems in real-time driven by the 4IR implementations. The goal of this thesis is to develop a model (CPS) suitable for self-predicting and to determine ideal operational practice driven by technologies of the 4IR. The model (CPS) seeks a novel tool effective for comprehensive business evaluation and optimisation. The competence of the anticipated tool includes suitability to collaborate current operations and predict the impact of change on a complex business. ..D.Phil. (Engineering Management

A proposed framework for supply chain analytics using customer data

Thesis (PhD (Business Management))--University of Pretoria, 2022.The COVID-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical events have called for a need to re-evaluate methodologies for Supply Chain Risk management. Significant investment in supply chain technology has resulted in data being generated throughout the value chain. Customer data, specifically, is of interest in order to establish customer-centricity and an enhanced customer journey. However, the transformation of this data to insight is not obvious for some organisations. Forecasting models are typically used to inform decision-making, mitigate risks and enlighten policymakers. This thesis aims to address this challenge by proposing a set of capabilities that will enhance the integration of the supply chain network to its customer data. Given this context, two methodologies were used to address the research problem; (i) multinational petrochemicals company was considered for our case study and a web-based survey was distributed among key stakeholders at their head offices in South Africa. A structured equation model (SEM) was constructed to empirically test the proposed relationships among the constructs, specifically: People, Process and Technology capabilities; (ii) The macro-economic factors that drive customer demand also considered. Increasing crude oil prices have increased logistics costs and have incited the deglobalization of supply chain operations. A novel petroleum forecasting model is also proposed, particularly focusing on the forecasting on South Africa’s petrol and diesel consumptions. The model uses indices for Brent crude oil price (ZAR), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Rand to Dollar exchange rate, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Business Confidence Index (BCI) data as input data. Overall, this study suggests that in order to effectively serve their customers, organisations need to establish a culture of customer centricity that is underpinned by appropriate supply chain analytics techniques. The predictive model further highlights the need to establish the relationship between the organisation’s supply chain and micro and macro-economic drivers.Business ManagementPhD (Business Management)Unrestricte