The futures of rural migration in sub-Saharan Africa: A literature review and exploratory essay

In a context where 200 million more people are expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) alone by 2050, the question of the futures of SSA rural migration is of crucial importance in a region which so far as remained essentially rural, in spite of a growing urbanization process. The first aim of this paper is to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on the futures of rural migration in SSA. Drawing from 37 studies it provides a picture of anticipated drivers and migration patterns. It shows also that to our knowledge, rural migration in SSA is still largely an underexplored field of research. The second aim of this paper is therefore to provide some more insights about this question developing an essay drawing from general knowledge about population flows and specific scenario work connecting alternative global world orders and plausible scenarios of rural transformation into three alternative narratives about rural migration in SSA. This anticipatory work, with no predictive intention, provides some elements of thought regarding future migration patterns and briefly discuss governance-related implications

Rural migration in sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns, drivers and relation to structural transformation

Sub-Saharan Africa has a long history of internal and international migratory movements. Migration patterns and dynamics from, to and between rural areas are profoundly differentiated across regions, and flows have considerably evolved over time. Yet, more recently, rural migration takes place in the unique situation of a major rural and urban demographic increase, which results in critical socio-economic and environmental challenges. In this context, intertwined migration drivers emerge and call for a better understanding of on-going dynamics. This working paper draws on a combination of literature review and data analysis, building on the results of the Atlas "Rural Africa in motion. Dynamics and drivers of migration South of the Sahara". This mixed approach is used to propose a conceptual framework based on past, current and future drivers of migration, then to examine observed patterns of rural migration and finally to discuss drivers' characteristics and dynamics from case studies and existing datasets

The agricultural input elasticity of rural-urban migration in South Africa

The pace of rural-urban migration relative to urban job creation is of particular relevance in relation to the level of urban unemployment and poverty in many developing countries. Faced with high levels of urban unemployment and other socio-economic problems governments in developing countries adopted several policies to ameliorate the situation. Since such policies were mainly urban biased in nature it not only failed in most cases but also in some instance exacerbated the situation by stimulating more rural-urban migration. Rural-urban migration occurs where there is economic disparity between rural and urban areas. Some economists therefore, argue that boosting agricultural productivity and/ or income can reduce the incidence of economic problems partially posed by rural-urban migration. In this paper, an attempt is made, using a recursive equation system and a South African data set for the period 1965-2002, to measure the indirect agricultural input elasticity of rural-urban migration. The results indicate that narrowing the urban-rural income differentials can reduce the massive rural-urban migration and high urban unemployment in the country. It is furthermore shown that developing agricultural land and infrastructure and increasing fertilizer use can boost agricultural income, reduce rural-urban migration and is consistent with policies aimed at curbing urban unemployment.Labor and Human Capital,

Rural to Urban Migration in Pakistan : The Gender Perspective

This paper analyses gender dimensions in rural to urban migration (age 10 years and above) in Pakistan. The study is based on Labour Force Surveys 1996-2006. The findings of the study show that overtime internal migration (age 10 years and above) remained unchanged. Female migrants dominate in internal migration (age 10 years and above). In case of female migration, marriage plays a vital role. Further the direction of migration reveals that over time in internal migration the share of rural to urban migration has increased while urban to urban migration declined, however, the share of urban to urban migration remains highest in internal migration. Females are dominating in recent rural to urban move compared to long term and total rural to urban migration. Gender composition of intra-provincial move of rural to urban migration reveals that in all provinces female migrants are dominated. Further, the trend of intra and inter provincial move indicates that in all provinces long distance movement of females has increased. Not only the share of female migrant in rural to urban migration increased but there seems to be an increasing trend in family migration to cities. This seems to be due to the changes in agrarian structure and rural economy particularly increased in landless households, declined in share cropping and rise in small land holding. In addition to this , the trend in intra and inter-provincial move reveals that except in province of NWFP in all three provinces migration to long distance has an upward trend. Gender composition reveals that in all these three provinces the proportion of both male and female migrants increased over time.Rural to Urban Migration, Agrarian Structure

Globalization and Urban-Rural Migration in Taiwan

In this study, we examine the association of urban-to-rural migration with the deterioration of labor market in urban sector due to the globalization of markets and production. Two measures of the relative impacts of globalization on urban and rural labor markets: changes in rural-urban real earning differential and changes in the rural-urban probabilities of being employed. We, thus, address the following questions. What would be the changes in both rural-urban real earning differential and the rural-urban differential in the probabilities of being employed over the last decade? Can real earning differentials or employment differentials, or both significantly influence the urban-to-rural migration decisions? Which one plays a pivotal role in the analysis? What would be the roles of individual or family characteristics in determining the urban-to-rural migration decisions? The preliminary results show the following implications. First of all, the increasing the probabilities of getting a job in rural sector versus keeping a job in urban sector play a pivotal role in determining the urban-to-rural migration. As employment opportunities became persistently worsen in urban sector, job security in rural became attractive and play a more important role than real earning differential. Secondly, having a family member working in rural sector significantly influences the urban-to-rural migration.globalization, labor migration, agricultural sector, Community/Rural/Urban Development, J31, I20,

Who move to rural areas? Micro Evidence from Finland

This study uses a large individual-level dataset to investigate rural in-migration. Two separate samples are used: one consists of migrants and non-migrants, while the other contains only migrants. Empirical analyses are carried out using multinomial logit and logit models. First, rural in-migrants and non-migrants are compared. The results show that in-migration to rural areas is selective, but partly in an atypical way. The age profile of rural in-migrants is unusual, as the probability of migration increases with age. Furthermore, a typical rural in-migrant is a pensioner and has a smaller than average income. It is also notable that, with respect to educational level or family relations, rural in-migrants do not differ from non-migrants. Space and related housing factors seem to be of importance in rural in-migration decisions. The study also examines differences between rural in-migrants and other migrants. In general, those moving to rural areas are older, have a lower educational level and a smaller income. Pensioners, couples and families with children are also more likely move to rural regions. However, differences emerge in relation to the distance of migration: short distance rural in-migrants are more likely to be couples with young children, while long distance rural in-migrants are more often pensioners and return-migrants.

Household Investment through migration in Rural China

In this paper, we strive to better understand how household investment is affected by participation in migration in rural China. After we describe investment patterns across different regions of rural China, we use a theoretical model to describe a relationship between migration and investment and to generate hypotheses about the relationship consistent with our descriptive findings. We test the hypotheses using household data collected in rural China in 2000 and find that in poorer areas migration increases consumptive investment by nearly 20 percent. We find no evidence of a link between migration and productive investment.China, migration, development, household investment, dynamic panel data

The impact of remittances on rural poverty and inequality in China

Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This paper examines the impact of rural-to-urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in the case of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since remittances are a potential substitute for farm income, the paper presents counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. The results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest the increasing share of non-farm income in total income widens inequality, this paper offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (i) migration is rational self-selection - farmers with higher agricultural productivities choose to remain in local agricultural production while those with higher expected return in urban non-farm sectors migrate; (ii) poorer households facing binding constraints of land shortage are more likely to migrate; and (iii) the poorest poor benefit disproportionately from remittances.Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Access to Finance,Inequality

Migration history, remittances and poverty in rural mexico

During the last twenty years, Mexico experienced a big increase in the migration of rural labor force to the United States. This phenomenon has been accompanied by an increase in remittances; by 2002, remittances accounted on average for more than 10% of rural households' income. In this context, the present work analyses the way in which the migration history of the recipient village affects the impact that reductions in remittances have on rural poverty levels. The hypothesis is that for a given decrease in remittances the increase in poverty is bigger in villages with a higher migration history. The results show that impacts do vary according to the migration history of the villages.poverty, remittances, migration, Mexico, rural

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Estonia Case Study

Estonia has experienced a long-lasting and strong influence of international migration on regional population growth. Post-war immigrants account for about 36 per cent of the total population, and are concentrated in larger cities of Northern Estonia. Regionally, the relative proportions of the native-born and immigrant origin sub-populations are important for the understanding of population change and internal migration flows in the 1980-1990s. In Estonia, the quality of migration data requires careful assessment. The preservation of Soviet-type record-keeping has reduced data quality in the 1990s, already low, and use of the data should keep data quality problems in mind. Otherwise, false conclusions can be reached. To describe internal migration patterns, it has proved technically feasible and very useful to disaggregate the county population into rural and urban components, and correspondingly, the migration flows into four directions (urban-urban, urban-rural, rural-urban and rural-rural). During the 1980s the pattern of population growth and internal migration has changed in Estonia. Reflecting the turnaround in long-term population processes, migration development reached the advanced stage with more or less regionally balanced in- and out-migration flows and decreasing importance of net migration. Accordingly, to understand current trends and patterns, explanations must be sought from the 1980s which has served a starting point for the present trends rather than from the period of economic transition in the 1990s. As a part of the turnaround, the century-long persistent rural depopulation has come to an end and the moderate growth has started reflecting natural population increase as well as deurbanization. In the 1980s two developments have occurred in parallel: migratory increase of rural population led by a deurbanizing native-born population, and continued urban population growth as a result of the population momentum of pre-transition immigrants. In future decades, the urban deconcentration will probably be the underlying trend in Estonia. In Estonia, noticeable proportion of territory and population is located in islands. However, the island population does not show any systematic difference in the type of internal migration. Particularly, the depopulation of island populations, observed in several comparable European cases, is not occurring. Each life-course stage was found to have its specific migration pattern, more stable than the pattern for the total population. In many cases the changes of internal migration are determined by the change in the proportion of population in different life-course stages. Additionally, the life-course approach has been useful in demonstrating the features of the present Estonian internal migration pattern which appear closer to the countries of comparable in demographic development, more or less regardless of the significant differences in the level of economic development. Among life-course groups, in Estonia the older working age population was characterized by the strongest deurbanization intensities in 1995. The same group has also undergone the largest modification of migration pattern during the economic transition (1987-1995)