Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models for Predicting Concurrent Percept-driven Robot Behavior

This article develops Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models (PHAMs), a realistic causal model for predicting the behavior generated by modern percept-driven robot plans. PHAMs represent aspects of robot behavior that cannot be represented by most action models used in AI planning: the temporal structure of continuous control processes, their non-deterministic effects, several modes of their interferences, and the achievement of triggering conditions in closed-loop robot plans. The main contributions of this article are: (1) PHAMs, a model of concurrent percept-driven behavior, its formalization, and proofs that the model generates probably, qualitatively accurate predictions; and (2) a resource-efficient inference method for PHAMs based on sampling projections from probabilistic action models and state descriptions. We show how PHAMs can be applied to planning the course of action of an autonomous robot office courier based on analytical and experimental results

A Bayesian framework for optimal motion planning with uncertainty

Modeling robot motion planning with uncertainty in a Bayesian framework leads to a computationally intractable stochastic control problem. We seek hypotheses that can justify a separate implementation of control, localization and planning. In the end, we reduce the stochastic control problem to path- planning in the extended space of poses x covariances; the transitions between states are modeled through the use of the Fisher information matrix. In this framework, we consider two problems: minimizing the execution time, and minimizing the final covariance, with an upper bound on the execution time. Two correct and complete algorithms are presented. The first is the direct extension of classical graph-search algorithms in the extended space. The second one is a back-projection algorithm: uncertainty constraints are propagated backward from the goal towards the start state

Belief State Planning for Autonomously Navigating Urban Intersections

Urban intersections represent a complex environment for autonomous vehicles with many sources of uncertainty. The vehicle must plan in a stochastic environment with potentially rapid changes in driver behavior. Providing an efficient strategy to navigate through urban intersections is a difficult task. This paper frames the problem of navigating unsignalized intersections as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and solves it using a Monte Carlo sampling method. Empirical results in simulation show that the resulting policy outperforms a threshold-based heuristic strategy on several relevant metrics that measure both safety and efficiency.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, accepted to IV201