Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Kay et al. 2015a) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the FIDO in situ magnetic field model (Kay et al. 2017a), allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35% of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30%. The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.Comment: accepted in JGR: Space Physic

Influence of Maternal Care on Behavioural Development of Domestic Dogs (Canis Familiaris) Living in a Home Environment

Maternal care has been shown to affect the development of the brain, behaviour, social skills and emotional systems of the young of many mammalian species including dogs. The aim of the present study was to determine the effects of maternal care on the behavioural responses of family dog puppies towards environmental and social stimuli. In order to do this, maternal care (licking puppy’s ano-genital area, licking the puppy, nursing and mother-puppy contact) during the first three weeks after birth was assessed in 12 litters of domestic dog puppies reared in home environments (total = 72 puppies). The behavioural responses of puppies were assessed in an arena and an isolation test, which were performed when the puppies were two-month old. Data were analysed using principal components analysis and projection to latent structures regression. A systematic relationship was found between maternal care and behaviour in both tests. In the arena test, maternal care was found to be positively associated with approach to the stranger, attention oriented to the stranger, time spent near the enclosure, yawning, whining and yelping (R2Y = 0.613, p = 8.2 × 10−9). Amount of maternal care was negatively associated with the number of squares crossed and the time spent individually playing with the rope. In the isolation test, the amount of maternal care was positively associated with standing posture, paw lifting, and howling, and it was negatively associated with yawning, lying down and nose licking (R2Y = 0.507, p = 0.000626). These results suggest that the amount of maternal care received during early life influences the pattern of behavioural responses and coping strategies of puppies at two-months of age. On the basis of these findings it could be speculated that early maternal care contributes to adaption to the environment in which family puppies are developing, with particular regard to social relationships with people

Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 1. Initial Architecture

The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when the solar wind magnetic field has a southward component. The most severe impacts are during the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) when the magnetosphere is both compressed and magnetically connected to the heliospheric environment. Unfortunately, forecasting magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections remains elusive. Here we report how, by combining a statistically robust helicity rule for a CME's solar origin with a simplified flux rope topology the magnetic vectors within the Earth-directed segment of a CME can be predicted. In order to test the validity of this proof-of-concept architecture for estimating the magnetic vectors within CMEs, a total of eight CME events (between 2010 and 2014) have been investigated. With a focus on the large false alarm of January 2014, this work highlights the importance of including the early evolutionary effects of a CME for forecasting purposes. The angular rotation in the predicted magnetic field closely follows the broad rotational structure seen within the in situ data. This time-varying field estimate is implemented into a process to quantitatively predict a time-varying Kp index that is described in detail in paper II. Future statistical work, quantifying the uncertainties in this process, may improve the more heuristic approach used by early forecasting systems.Comment: This paper has been published in Space Weather. Part two is currently under revie

Healthy Schools Program Evaluation: Year 1 Update

Assesses the early impact of RWJF's program to provide technical assistance, resource brokering, and online tools to help schools promote physical activity and meet healthy foods and beverages standards. Examines improvement levels by school traits

Testing magnetofrictional extrapolation with the Titov-D\'emoulin model of solar active regions

We examine the nonlinear magnetofrictional extrapolation scheme using the solar active region model by Titov and D\'emoulin as test field. This model consists of an arched, line-tied current channel held in force-free equilibrium by the potential field of a bipolar flux distribution in the bottom boundary. A modified version, having a parabolic current density profile, is employed here. We find that the equilibrium is reconstructed with very high accuracy in a representative range of parameter space, using only the vector field in the bottom boundary as input. Structural features formed in the interface between the flux rope and the surrounding arcade-"hyperbolic flux tube" and "bald patch separatrix surface"-are reliably reproduced, as are the flux rope twist and the energy and helicity of the configuration. This demonstrates that force-free fields containing these basic structural elements of solar active regions can be obtained by extrapolation. The influence of the chosen initial condition on the accuracy of reconstruction is also addressed, confirming that the initial field that best matches the external potential field of the model quite naturally leads to the best reconstruction. Extrapolating the magnetogram of a Titov-D\'emoulin equilibrium in the unstable range of parameter space yields a sequence of two opposing evolutionary phases which clearly indicate the unstable nature of the configuration: a partial buildup of the flux rope with rising free energy is followed by destruction of the rope, losing most of the free energy.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figure

Comparison of individual and paired learning for the measurement of retention

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston UniversityThe purpose of this study was to measure and compare retention between children working alone and with a partner using S.R.A. (Scientific Research Associates) reading materials. The S.R.A. laboratory is a series of graded reading experiences intended to be used by individual children working alone and at their own rate of speed. Its general purpose is to improve many reading skills but in this study the retention factor will be the only concern