Risk guarantee prediction in networked-loans

© 2020 Inst. Sci. inf., Univ. Defence in Belgrade. All rights reserved. The guaranteed loan is a debt obligation promise that if one corporation gets trapped in risks, its guarantors will back the loan. When more and more companies involve, they subsequently form complex networks. Detecting and predicting risk guarantee in these networked-loans is important for the loan issuer. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a dynamic graph-based attention neural network for risk guarantee relationship prediction (DGANN). In particular, each guarantee is represented as an edge in dynamic loan networks, while companies are denoted as nodes. We present an attention-based graph neural network to encode the edges that preserve the financial status as well as network structures. The experimental result shows that DGANN could significantly improve the risk prediction accuracy in both the precision and recall compared with state-of-the-art baselines. We also conduct empirical studies to uncover the risk guarantee patterns from the learned attentional network features. The result provides an alternative way for loan risk management, which may inspire more work in the future

A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis: Problems, Methods, Spotlights and Applications

Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the enterprises' future financial risk.Due to the wide application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been a core research issue in finance. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on risk management, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in enterprise financial risk analysis. Due to the rapid expansion of the enterprise financial risk analysis, especially from the computer science and big data perspective, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing enterprise financial risk researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies of enterprise financial risk analysis in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. This paper provides a systematic literature review of over 300 articles published on enterprise risk analysis modelling over a 50-year period, 1968 to 2022. We first introduce the formal definition of enterprise risk as well as the related concepts. Then, we categorized the representative works in terms of risk type and summarized the three aspects of risk analysis. Finally, we compared the analysis methods used to model the enterprise financial risk. Our goal is to clarify current cutting-edge research and its possible future directions to model enterprise risk, aiming to fully understand the mechanisms of enterprise risk communication and influence and its application on corporate governance, financial institution and government regulation

Can cash hold its own? International comparisons: Theory and evidence

A number of papers predict the imminent demise of currency use in transactions while some make a case for its continued use due to its distinctive feature of anonymity. Notwithstanding the latter, this paper shows on both theoretical and empirical grounds, that cash use is sustainable for the foreseeable future because of the cost competitiveness of ATM networked cash to the consumer relative to electronic POS card substitutes. Indeed, since the mid-1990s, Finland, Canada and France which are countries in the vanguard of EFTPOS development, have experienced a resurgence of ATM cash use as measured by its expenditure share.