Retarded Learning: Rigorous Results from Statistical Mechanics

We study learning of probability distributions characterized by an unknown symmetry direction. Based on an entropic performance measure and the variational method of statistical mechanics we develop exact upper and lower bounds on the scaled critical number of examples below which learning of the direction is impossible. The asymptotic tightness of the bounds suggests an asymptotically optimal method for learning nonsmooth distributions.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figur

Predictability, complexity and learning

We define {\em predictive information} $I_{\rm pred} (T)$ as the mutual information between the past and the future of a time series. Three qualitatively different behaviors are found in the limit of large observation times $T$: $I_{\rm pred} (T)$ can remain finite, grow logarithmically, or grow as a fractional power law. If the time series allows us to learn a model with a finite number of parameters, then $I_{\rm pred} (T)$ grows logarithmically with a coefficient that counts the dimensionality of the model space. In contrast, power--law growth is associated, for example, with the learning of infinite parameter (or nonparametric) models such as continuous functions with smoothness constraints. There are connections between the predictive information and measures of complexity that have been defined both in learning theory and in the analysis of physical systems through statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory. Further, in the same way that entropy provides the unique measure of available information consistent with some simple and plausible conditions, we argue that the divergent part of $I_{\rm pred} (T)$ provides the unique measure for the complexity of dynamics underlying a time series. Finally, we discuss how these ideas may be useful in different problems in physics, statistics, and biology.Comment: 53 pages, 3 figures, 98 references, LaTeX2

Replica Symmetry Breaking in Compressive Sensing

For noisy compressive sensing systems, the asymptotic distortion with respect to an arbitrary distortion function is determined when a general class of least-square based reconstruction schemes is employed. The sampling matrix is considered to belong to a large ensemble of random matrices including i.i.d. and projector matrices, and the source vector is assumed to be i.i.d. with a desired distribution. We take a statistical mechanical approach by representing the asymptotic distortion as a macroscopic parameter of a spin glass and employing the replica method for the large-system analysis. In contrast to earlier studies, we evaluate the general replica ansatz which includes the RS ansatz as well as RSB. The generality of the solution enables us to study the impact of symmetry breaking. Our numerical investigations depict that for the reconstruction scheme with the "zero-norm" penalty function, the RS fails to predict the asymptotic distortion for relatively large compression rates; however, the one-step RSB ansatz gives a valid prediction of the performance within a larger regime of compression rates.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, presented at ITA 201

The ROMES method for statistical modeling of reduced-order-model error

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability