The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

Socio-economic strategies and results of vegetable traders in Phnom Penh (Cambodia)

The study is part of Component 2 of Susper project on market development, which aims at a better correlation between vegetable supply by local production and the market demand. The main objective of the survey is a better understanding of the strategies of the market agents in terms of sources of supply, relations with suppliers and customers, nature of transport, access to information; and an evaluation of their costs and incomes. A total of 51 traders have been interviewed in three urban markets: Chbar Ampou and Dumkor (which act as wholesale and retail markets) and Oresey (a retail market) in May-June and September 2002. In these markets, the present stakeholders are: retailers (permanent, semi-permanent- who sell half the day and temporary); permanent and temporary wholesalers; collectors; and producers - some selling wholesale, some selling retail. The majority of traders (more than 80%) sell all year-round. The most popular means of transport are motorbikes (45%) and handcarts (14%) which are rented rather than owned. The average quantities traded per day in May-June 2002 are 550 kilos for wholesalers, 64 kilos for retailers, and 400 kilos for collectors. At the two times of the study, tomato, cabbage and Chinese cabbage originated from Vietnam (with some local origin for tomato in September - 14%) while cucumber, yard long bean, lettuce, choysum and water convolvulus originated from Cambodia (mostly Kandal Province). Around half the interviewed traders have developed regular relationships with their suppliers (this applies for imported as well as local products), which means that they are given priority in terms of supply and purchase, at all times of the year. This diminishes the risks of unsold products for suppliers and of lack of supply for purchasers. Around 70% of the traders listen to the radio and get access to price information through this means but 70% of those state it is not useful for lack of accuracy and timeliness. Incomes and marketing margins are highly variable among traders. On average, net marketing margins do not exceed 25% of purchase value for all categories of traders. The analysis suggests a positive relation between the amount of income, the quantity traded, and the access to regular suppliers. The answers on the comparison between local and imported products suggest: differences in aspect (bigger size for imported products); longer availability of imported products; but higher appreciation of taste and alleged safety of local products. Bad marketing conditions and lack of product availability are difficulties stated by the traders. From the traders¿ declarations, the conditions of vegetable distribution could be improved by upgrading marketplaces and making local supply more regular throughout the year. (Résumé d'auteur

Konsep Penataan Kawasan Usaha Ritel di Tengah Pemukiman Masyarakat Pedesaan (Studi Sosiologis di Wilayah Kabupaten Malang)

Jabal Tarik IbrahimStaf Pengajar Jurusan Agrobisnis, Fakultas Pertanian Peternakan, Universitas Muhammadiyah MalangAlamat Korespondensi : Jl. Raya Tlogomas 246 MalangEmail: [email protected] retail business in villages is not restricted in Malang Residency. The restriction is regardedas a barier restricting economic growth. However, traditional traders have different points in view;the retail business close to their area tends to compete with their business. Therefore, localadministrative in Malang has to organize the number and the range distribution of modern retail inrural area in order not to abolish the local/traditional traders

Why are Fresh Produce Prices So Unstable in Lusaka? Insights for Policy and Investment Priorities.

Daily quantities of tomato, rape and onion entering Soweto market in Lusaka fluctuate dramatically. The market does a remarkable job of moderating the impact on prices of these unstable quantities, through stabilizing mechanisms such as short-term storage of tomato and rape by traders and consumers, longer-term storage of onion by traders, direct sourcing of rape from farm areas by retail traders, and exportation of tomato and onion outside Lusaka. Yet even with these stabilizing mechanisms, wholesale prices are highly variable, with negative effects on farmers and consumers. Reducing variability requires investments in four areas: (a) improved control of production environments by farmers through irrigation, better access to inputs and greater agronomic knowledge, (b) improved vertical flow of information from farmers to traders to brokers to retailers, (c) a regulatory framework for broker activity to improve trust and information flow between brokers and sellers, and (d) improved market infrastructure.Produce, Zambia, Africa, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing,

No. 73: Informal Entrepreneurship and Cross-Border Trade in Maputo, Mozambique

Cross-border trading is an essential part of Mozambique’s informal economy, with the traders playing a key role in supplying commodities that are in scarce supply nationwide. This report presents the results of a SAMP survey of informal entrepreneurs connected to cross-border trade between Johannesburg and Maputo. The study sought to enhance the evidence base on the links between migration and informal entrepreneurship in Southern African cities and to examine the implications for municipal, national and regional policy. In Mozambique, cross-border trading is primarily done by women with men mainly involved in the sale of the products brought back from South Africa. This report demonstrates the specific roles played by the cross-border traders in the economies of both Mozambique and South Africa. It shows that they contribute to the South African economy through buying goods, as well as paying for accommodation and transport costs. The cross-border traders are directly contributing to the retail, hospitality and transport sectors in South Africa, thereby creating and sustaining jobs in those sectors. In Mozambique, the traders pay import duty for the goods bought in South Africa and they play a significant role in reducing poverty and unemployment in the country. Therefore, a change in attitude of government towards cross-border traders is called for and the policy environment should encourage the operation of this trade

Asymmetric Prices: Implications on Trader’s Market Power in Philippine Rice

Contrary to the commonly held notion that the market power exercised by a handful of unscrupulous traders in the local market has resulted unnecessary hike in prices, this paper presents evidence against this allegation. Findings show that market shocks originate at the farm level that are transmitted as price changes at the wholesale market before it is reflected at the retail market. In addition, symmetry test cannot confirm the presence of market power among Filipino traders. Nevertheless, estimation of price symmetry model does not lend credence to the claim that government’s absence in the market can lead to chaos.price level

Retail FX trader survey results

Between the 29th November 2015 and 25th April 2016, 133 Retail FX traders responded to a request to take part in an anonymous online survey, which asked 14 questions about the way they trade. The purpose of the survey was to inform research looking at effective ways to help improve the profitability and reduce the risk of the Retail FX trader. Over fifty percent of the respondents stated they had been trading for more than four years. The survey found that more than half of the traders had experienced account-closing losses with nearly 40% have experienced this at least twice. The most common cause of these losses were the use of trades sizes that were too large, with nearly half of all traders stating this was the cause of their worst trade. Additional ‘worst trade’ factors were identified as allowing losing trades to run for too long and the lack of automated stop loss levels. Less than a quarter of traders identified their ‘system’ as being the cause of either their best or worst trades, with ‘best’ trades being attributed to significant market moves over 40% of the time closely followed by allowing winning trades to run for a long time. Only a third of traders said they regularly checked the bid-ask spread before placing a trade with only a quarter ever checking the interest swap charges, despite nearly half of all traders saying they kept trades open overnight. When asked what single area a trader would like to improve, most traders focused on physiological issues rather than system ones. The purpose of this paper is to share these results with the Retail Trader community and to seek further input as to the best way to help address some of the identified issues

What do retail FX traders learn?

What is the benefit of experience? Using data from a leading trading platform we find no evidence that retail FX traders learn to trade better, but they do appear to learn about their innate abilities as traders and respond appropriately. In particular, following an unsuccessful trading day, they are more likely to cease trading, to trade smaller amounts and to trade less frequently. These effects are stronger for younger and less experienced traders who might be expected to have more to learn than older, more experienced traders. As regards learning through experience, surprisingly we find that more seasoned traders demonstrate a slight decline in performance once we account for the endogenous decision to cease trading, and even very experienced traders consistently lose money

No. 05: Mapping the Informal Food Economy in Cape Town, South Africa

The informal food retail sector is an important component of urban food systems and plays a vital role in ensuring access to food by the urban poor. Yet, policy frameworks both to address food security and to govern the informal sector neglect informal retail in the food system and, as a result, the sector is poorly understood. This discussion paper argues that it is essential to understand the dynamics of the informal food retail sector, which is diverse in terms of products traded as well as the business models utilized. The paper attempts to identify the characteristics of the sector that impact on its ability to address the food needs of the neighbourhoods in which the businesses are located. It illustrates that far from existing independently of each other, the informal and the formal food retail sectors intersect at various points upstream as well as through customer practices. The paper argues that it is essential to view the formal and informal sectors as part of the same food system and to generate policy and planning responses that acknowledge the role of both in meeting local food security needs. Although the paper is focused on Cape Town, South Africa, the findings are of broader relevance