Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty: Seismicity and Hydropower Development in Nepal

If Ulrich Beck’s definition of ‘risk society’ describes societies increasingly structured by preoccupations with future environmental threats and related insecurities created by modernization, then Nepal’s hydropower community would appear to be quite the opposite, propelled into environmental denial by twin demands for domestic electricity and revenue earned through hydroelectric export. Our research reveals that prior to the April 2015 earthquake in Nepal, the hydropower community was engaging in what Eviatar Zerubavel calls ‘socially organized denial,’ largely ignoring the uncertainties associated with seismic activity. Earthquakes and tremors were viewed as unavoidable realities that should not impede hydropower development. This denial, we argue, was shaped not only by local political realities and demand for electricity, but also by a larger desire to capitalize on available funds from international finance, which are highly contingent upon Nepal presenting itself as a ‘safe’ zone for investment. Our study focuses on the elites of Nepal’s hydro community: the developers, investors, water experts, and government officials who occupy the ‘upstream’ positions at which scientific knowledge is produced and adjudicated. On one hand, the denial or omission of earthquake potential that we witnessed seems to identify the ineluctable challenges that Nepal faces in attempting to integrate its economy into global markets; on the other hand, it indicates the desire of the private sector to reap profits from hydropower in spite of obvious geophysical dangers. These dangers, we argue, are a bankable risk for these elites. However, for the people directly affected by new hydropower infrastructures, these are risks and uncertainties threatening already vulnerable livelihoods

The supernova rate and delay time distribution in the Magellanic Clouds

We use the supernova remnants (SNRs) in the Magellanic Clouds (MCs) as a supernova (SN) survey, "conducted" over tens of kyr, from which we derive the current SN rate, and the SN delay time distribution (DTD), i.e., the SN rate vs. time that would follow a hypothetical brief burst of a star formation. In Badenes, Maoz, & Draine (2010) we have compiled a list of 77 SNRs in the MCS, and argued it is a fairly complete record of the SNRs in the Sedov phase of their expansions. We recover the DTD by comparing the numbers of SNRs observed in small individual "cells" in these galaxies to the star-formation histories of each cell, as calculated from resolved stellar populations by Harris & Zaritsky. The visibility times of SNRs are the Sedov-phase lifetimes, which depend on the local ambient densities. The local densities are estimated from HI emission, from an inverse Schmidt law based on either Halpha flux or on the resolved star-formation rate, and from combinations of these tracers. In the DTD, we detect "prompt" type-Ia SNe (that explode within 330 Myr of star formation) at >99% confidence level (c.l.). The best fit for the number of prompt SNe-Ia per stellar mass formed is (2.7-11.0) x 10^{-3} /Msun, depending on the density tracer used. The 95% c.l. range for a "delayed" SN Ia component (from 330 Myr to a Hubble time) is < 1.6 x 10^{-13} SN/yr/Msun, consistent with rate measurements in old populations. The current total (core-collapse+Ia) SN rate in the MCs is 2.5-4.6 SNe per millenium (68% c.l.+systematics), or 1.7-3.1 SNuM [SNe/100 yr/10^{10}Msun], in agreement with the historical record and with rates measured in other dwarf irregulars. Conversely, assuming the SNRs are in free expansion, rather than in their Sedov phase, would impose on the SNRs a maximum age of 6 kyr, and would imply a MC SN rate per unit mass that is 5 times higher than in any type of galaxy.Comment: MNRAS, in pres

Extending the M_(bh)-sigma diagram with dense nuclear star clusters

Abridged: Four new nuclear star cluster masses, M_nc, plus seven upper limits, are provided for galaxies with previously determined black hole masses, M_bh. Together with a sample of 64 galaxies with direct M_bh measurements, 13 of which additionally now have M_nc measurements rather than only upper limits, plus an additional 29 dwarf galaxies with available M_nc measurements and velocity dispersions sigma, an (M_bh + M_nc)-sigma diagram is constructed. Given that major dry galaxy merger events preserve the M_bh/L ratio, and given that L ~ sigma^5 for luminous galaxies, it is first noted that the observation M_bh ~ sigma^5 is consistent with expectations. For the fainter elliptical galaxies it is known that L ~ sigma^2, and assuming a constant M_nc/L ratio (Ferrarese et al.), the expectation that M_nc ~ sigma^2 is in broad agreement with our new observational result that M_nc ~ sigma^{1.57\pm0.24}. This exponent is however in contrast to the value of ~4 which has been reported previously and interpreted in terms of a regulating feedback mechanism from stellar winds.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures. Submitted 08/08/2011 to MNRAS, first referee report received 19/01/2012, accepted 10/02/201

Demography of SDSS early-type galaxies from the perspective of radial color gradients

We have investigated the radial g-r color gradients of early-type galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR6 in the redshift range 0.00<z<0.06. The majority of massive early-type galaxies show a negative color gradient (red-cored) as generally expected for early-type galaxies. On the other hand, roughly 30 per cent of the galaxies in this sample show a positive color gradient (blue-cored). These "blue-cored" galaxies often show strong H beta absorption line strengths and/or emission line ratios that are indicative of the presence of young stellar populations. Combining the optical data with Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) UV photometry, we find that all blue-cored galaxies show UV-optical colors that can only be explained by young stellar populations. This implies that most of the residual star formation in early-type galaxies is centrally concentrated. Blue-cored galaxies are predominantly low velocity dispersion systems. A simple model shows that the observed positive color gradients (blue-cored) are visible only for a billion years after a star formation episode for the typical strength of recent star formation. The observed effective radius decreases and the mean surface brightness increases due to this centrally-concentrated star formation episode. As a result, the majority of blue-cored galaxies may lie on different regions in the Fundamental Plane from red-cored ellipticals. However, the position of the blue-cored galaxies on the Fundamental Plane cannot be solely attributed to recent star formation but require substantially lower velocity dispersion. We conclude that a low-level of residual star formation persists at the centers of most of low-mass early-type galaxies, whereas massive ones are mostly quiescent systems with metallicity-driven red cores.Comment: 15 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Quark nova imprint in the extreme supernova explosion SN 2006gy

The extremely luminous supernova 2006gy (SN 2006gy) is among the most energetic ever observed. The peak brightness was 100 times that of a typical supernova and it spent an unheard of 250 days at magnitude -19 or brighter. Efforts to describe SN 2006gy have pushed the boundaries of current supernova theory. In this work we aspire to simultaneously reproduce the photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2006gy using a quark nova model. This analysis considers the supernova explosion of a massive star followed days later by the quark nova detonation of a neutron star. We lay out a detailed model of the interaction between the supernova envelope and the quark nova ejecta paying special attention to a mixing region which forms at the inner edge of the supernova envelope. This model is then fit to photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2006gy. This QN model naturally describes several features of SN 2006gy including the late stage light curve plateau, the broad H{\alpha} line and the peculiar blue H{\alpha} absorption. We find that a progenitor mass between 20Msun and 40Msun provides ample energy to power SN 2006gy in the context of a QN.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figure

Fermi-LAT Detection of the Young SuperNova Remnant Tycho

After almost three years of data taking in sky survey mode, the \emph{Fermi}-LAT has detected $\gamma$-ray emission toward the Tycho's Supernova Remnant (SNR). The Tycho SNR is among the youngest remnants in the Galaxy, originating from a Type Ia Supernova in AD 1572. The $\gamma$-ray integral flux from 400 MeV up to 100 GeV has been measured to be (3.5$\pm1.1_{stat}\pm0.7_{syst}$)$\times10^{-9}$ cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ with a photon index of 2.3$\pm0.2_{stat}\pm0.1_{syst}$

SPT-CL J0205-5829: A z = 1.32 Evolved Massive Galaxy Cluster in the South Pole Telescope Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect Survey

The galaxy cluster SPT-CL J0205-5829 currently has the highest spectroscopically-confirmed redshift, z=1.322, in the South Pole Telescope Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SPT-SZ) survey. XMM-Newton observations measure a core-excluded temperature of Tx=8.7keV producing a mass estimate that is consistent with the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich derived mass. The combined SZ and X-ray mass estimate of M500=(4.9+/-0.8)e14 h_{70}^{-1} Msun makes it the most massive known SZ-selected galaxy cluster at z>1.2 and the second most massive at z>1. Using optical and infrared observations, we find that the brightest galaxies in SPT-CL J0205-5829 are already well evolved by the time the universe was <5 Gyr old, with stellar population ages >3 Gyr, and low rates of star formation (<0.5Msun/yr). We find that, despite the high redshift and mass, the existence of SPT-CL J0205-5829 is not surprising given a flat LambdaCDM cosmology with Gaussian initial perturbations. The a priori chance of finding a cluster of similar rarity (or rarer) in a survey the size of the 2500 deg^2 SPT-SZ survey is 69%.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Ap

Light Curve Modeling of Superluminous Supernova 2006gy: Collision between Supernova Ejecta and Dense Circumstellar Medium

We show model light curves of superluminous supernova 2006gy on the assumption that the supernova is powered by the collision of supernova ejecta and its dense circumstellar medium. The initial conditions are constructed based on the shock breakout condition, assuming that the circumstellar medium is dense enough to cause the shock breakout within it. We perform a set of numerical light curve calculations by using a one-dimensional multigroup radiation hydrodynamics code STELLA. We succeeded in reproducing the overall features of the early light curve of SN 2006gy with the circumstellar medium whose mass is about 15 Msun (the average mass-loss rate ~ 0.1 Msun/yr). Thus, the progenitor of SN 2006gy is likely a very massive star. The density profile of the circumstellar medium is not well constrained by the light curve modeling only, but our modeling disfavors the circumstellar medium formed by steady mass loss. The ejecta mass is estimated to be comparable to or less than 15 Msun and the explosion energy is expected to be more than 4e51 erg. No 56Ni is required to explain the early light curve. We find that the multidimensional effect, e.g., the Rayleigh-Taylor instability, which is expected to take place in the cool dense shell between the supernova ejecta and the dense circumstellar medium, is important in understanding supernovae powered by the shock interaction. We also show the evolution of the optical and near-infrared model light curves of high-redshift superluminous supernovae. They can be potentially used to identify SN 2006gy-like superluminous supernovae in the future optical and near-infrared transient surveys.Comment: 18 pages, 19 figures, 2 tables, accepted by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

The delay-time distribution of type-Ia supernovae from Sloan II

We derive the delay-time distribution (DTD) of type-Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) using a sample of 132 SNe Ia, discovered by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey II (SDSS2) among 66,000 galaxies with spectral-based star-formation histories (SFHs). To recover the best-fit DTD, the SFH of every individual galaxy is compared, using Poisson statistics, to the number of SNe that it hosted (zero or one), based on the method introduced in Maoz et al. (2011). This SN sample differs from the SDSS2 SN Ia sample analyzed by Brandt et al. (2010), using a related, but different, DTD recovery method. Furthermore, we use a simulation-based SN detection-efficiency function, and we apply a number of important corrections to the galaxy SFHs and SN Ia visibility times. The DTD that we find has 4-sigma detections in all three of its time bins: prompt (t < 420 Myr), intermediate (0.4 2.4 Gyr), indicating a continuous DTD, and it is among the most accurate and precise among recent DTD reconstructions. The best-fit power-law form to the recovered DTD is t^(-1.12+/-0.08), consistent with generic ~t^-1 predictions of SN Ia progenitor models based on the gravitational-wave induced mergers of binary white dwarfs. The time integrated number of SNe Ia per formed stellar mass is N_SN/M = 0.00130 +/- 0.00015 Msun^-1, or about 4% of the stars formed with initial masses in the 3-8 Msun range. This is lower than, but largely consistent with, several recent DTD estimates based on SN rates in galaxy clusters and in local-volume galaxies, and is higher than, but consistent with N_SN/M estimated by comparing volumetric SN Ia rates to cosmic SFH.Comment: MNRAS, in pres