A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle

Evidence Theory is a branch of mathematics that concerns the combination of empirical evidence in an individual's mind in order to construct a coherent picture of reality. Designed to deal with unexpected empirical evidence suggesting new possibilities, evidence theory has a lot in common with Shackle's idea of decision-making as a creative act. This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle's decision theory. In order to ease a proper framing of the issues involved, evidence theory is not only compared with Shackle's ideas but also with additive and sub-additive probability theories. Furthermore, the presentation of evidence theory does not refer to the original version only, but takes account of its most recent developments, too.

Rejoinder to comments on “reasoning with belief functions: An analysis of compatibility”

AbstractAn earlier position paper has examined the applicability of belief-functions methodology in three reasoning tasks: (1) representation of incomplete knowledge, (2) belief-updating, and (3) evidence pooling. My conclusions were that the use of belief functions encounters basic difficulties along all three tasks, and that extensive experimental and theoretical studies should be undertaken before belief functions could be applied safely. This article responds to the discussion, in this issue, of my conclusions and the degree to which they affect the applicability of belief functions in automated reasoning tasks

The Wellesley Magazine (1894-02-24)

https://repository.wellesley.edu/mag/1013/thumbnail.jp

A Real Republican: The Political Life of Gov. George F. Shafer

Since very little research has been dedicated to the Independent Voters’ Association and its leadership, much of the work of this thesis had to come from manuscript collections, various theses, and other secondary sources. Events surrounding George F. Shafer’s career presented some special problems to the researcher. After Shafer’s death in 1948, his widow had workmen remove his personal papers from his law office and many were accidentally thrown away. What comprises his remaining papers are in the Special Collections Library at the University of North Dakota. Various campaign speeches are also drawn from the Clyde Duffey and Theodore G. Nelson manuscript collections at the University of North Dakota, the North Dakota Institute of Regional Studies, the State Historical Society of North Dakota archives, a few personal papers drawn from sources in Watford City, North Dakota, and several lengthy personal interviews with nephew Gerald F. Shafer. To reconstruct Shafer’s public career, reliance was placed upon many newspapers. The best papers to accommodate this were George Shafer’s hometown papers of the Schafer Record. The Watford Guide, and the McKenzie Countv Farmer. The Bismarck Tribune was the best paper for covering the state’s political news and a lengthy time was spent reviewing the issues from 1917 to 1933. The major dailies of the state were consulted when noteworthy events occurred in a campaign or at the meeting of a political convention. The use of these sources helped to illustrate and assess the public career of George F. Shafer, and the Independent Voters’ Association, placing them in context that they deserve

TPM: Cloud-Based Tele PTSD Monitor Using Multi-Dimensional Information

An automated system that can remotely and non-intrusively screen individuals at high risk for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and monitor their progress during treatment would be desired by many Veterans Affairs (VAs) as well as other PTSD treatment and research organizations. In this paper, we present an automated, cloud-based Tele-PTSD Monitor (TPM) system based on the fusion of multiple sources of information. The TPM system can be hosted in a cloud environment and accessed through landline or cell phones, or on the Internet through a web portal or mobile application (app)

A Proposal Concerning the Analysis of Shadows in Images by an Active Observer (Dissertation Proposal)

Shadows occur frequently in indoor scenes and outdoors on sunny days. Despite the information inherent in shadows about a scene\u27s geometry and lighting conditions, relatively little work in image understanding has addressed the important problem of recognizing shadows. This is an even more serious failing when one considers the problems shadows pose for many visual techniques such as object recognition and shape from shading. Shadows are difficult to identify because they cannot be infallibly recognized until a scene\u27s geometry and lighting are known. However, there are a number of cues which together strongly suggest the identification of a shadow. We present a list of these cues and methods which can be used by an active observer to detect shadows. By an active observer, we mean an observer that is not only mobile, but can extend a probe into its environment. The proposed approach should allow the extraction of shadows in real time. Furthermore, the identification of a shadow should improve with observing time. In order to be able to identify shadows without or prior to obtaining information about the arrangement of objects or information about the spectral properties of materials in the scene, we provide the observer with a probe with which to cast its own shadows. Any visible shadows cast by the probe can be easily identified because they will be new to the scene. These actively obtained shadows allow the observer to experimentally determine the number and location of light sources in the scene, to locate the cast shadows, and to gain information about the likely spectral changes due to shadows. We present a novel method for locating a light source and the surface on which a shadow is cast. It takes into account errors in imaging and image processing and, furthermore, it takes special advantage of the benefits of an active observer. The information gained from the probe is of particular importance in effectively using the various shadow cues. In the course of identifying shadows, we also present a new modification on an image segmentation algorithm. Our modification provides a general description of color images in terms of regions that is particularly amenable to the analysis of shadows

The NASA Scientific and Technical Information Program: Exploring challenges, creating opportunities

The NASA Scientific and Technical Information (STI) Program offers researchers access to the world's largest collection of aerospace information. An overview of Program activities, products and services, and new directions is presented. The R&D information cycle is outlined and specific examples of the NASA STI Program in practice are given. Domestic and international operations and technology transfer activities are reviewed and an agenda for the STI Program NASA-wide is presented. Finally, the incorporation of Total Quality Management and evaluation metrics into the STI Program is discussed