35,526 research outputs found
Decision making with decision event graphs
We introduce a new modelling representation, the Decision Event Graph (DEG), for asymmetric
multistage decision problems. The DEG explicitly encodes conditional independences
and has additional significant advantages over other representations of asymmetric decision
problems. The colouring of edges makes it possible to identify conditional independences on
decision trees, and these coloured trees serve as a basis for the construction of the DEG.
We provide an efficient backward-induction algorithm for finding optimal decision rules on
DEGs, and work through an example showing the efficacy of these graphs. Simplifications of
the topology of a DEG admit analogues to the sufficiency principle and barren node deletion
steps used with influence diagrams
EEMCS final report for the causal modeling for air transport safety (CATS) project
This document reports on the work realized by the DIAM in relation to the completion of the CATS model as presented in Figure 1.6 and tries to explain some of the steps taken for its completion. The project spans over a period of time of three years. Intermediate reports have been presented throughout the project’s progress. These are presented in Appendix 1. In this report the continuous‐discrete distribution‐free BBNs are briefly discussed. The human reliability models developed for dealing with dependence in the model variables are described and the software application UniNet is presente
Labeled Directed Acyclic Graphs: a generalization of context-specific independence in directed graphical models
We introduce a novel class of labeled directed acyclic graph (LDAG) models
for finite sets of discrete variables. LDAGs generalize earlier proposals for
allowing local structures in the conditional probability distribution of a
node, such that unrestricted label sets determine which edges can be deleted
from the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) for a given context. Several
properties of these models are derived, including a generalization of the
concept of Markov equivalence classes. Efficient Bayesian learning of LDAGs is
enabled by introducing an LDAG-based factorization of the Dirichlet prior for
the model parameters, such that the marginal likelihood can be calculated
analytically. In addition, we develop a novel prior distribution for the model
structures that can appropriately penalize a model for its labeling complexity.
A non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm combined with a greedy hill
climbing approach is used for illustrating the useful properties of LDAG models
for both real and synthetic data sets.Comment: 26 pages, 17 figure
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