State estimation for temporal point processes

This paper is concerned with combined inference for point processes on the real line observed in a broken interval. For such processes, the classic history-based approach cannot be used. Instead, we adapt tools from sequential spatial point processes. For a range of models, the marginal and conditional distributions are derived. We discuss likelihood based inference as well as parameter estimation using the method of moments, conduct a simulation study for the important special case of renewal processes and analyse a data set collected by Diggle and Hawtin

Loop-free Markov chains as determinantal point processes

We show that any loop-free Markov chain on a discrete space can be viewed as a determinantal point process. As an application, we prove central limit theorems for the number of particles in a window for renewal processes and Markov renewal processes with Bernoulli noise.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AIHP115 the Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincar\'e - Probabilit\'es et Statistiques (http://www.imstat.org/aihp/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Constrained exchangeable partitions

For a class of random partitions of an infinite set a de Finetti-type representation is derived, and in one special case a central limit theorem for the number of blocks is shown

Zeros of random tropical polynomials, random polytopes and stick-breaking

For $i = 0, 1, \ldots, n$, let $C_i$ be independent and identically distributed random variables with distribution $F$ with support $(0,\infty)$. The number of zeros of the random tropical polynomials $\mathcal{T}f_n(x) = \min_{i=1,\ldots,n}(C_i + ix)$ is also the number of faces of the lower convex hull of the $n+1$ random points $(i,C_i)$ in $\mathbb{R}^2$. We show that this number, $Z_n$, satisfies a central limit theorem when $F$ has polynomial decay near $0$. Specifically, if $F$ near $0$ behaves like a $gamma(a,1)$ distribution for some $a > 0$, then $Z_n$ has the same asymptotics as the number of renewals on the interval $[0,\log(n)/a]$ of a renewal process with inter-arrival distribution $-\log(Beta(a,2))$. Our proof draws on connections between random partitions, renewal theory and random polytopes. In particular, we obtain generalizations and simple proofs of the central limit theorem for the number of vertices of the convex hull of $n$ uniform random points in a square. Our work leads to many open problems in stochastic tropical geometry, the study of functionals and intersections of random tropical varieties.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

Processes with Long Memory: Regenerative Construction and Perfect Simulation

We present a perfect simulation algorithm for stationary processes indexed by Z, with summable memory decay. Depending on the decay, we construct the process on finite or semi-infinite intervals, explicitly from an i.i.d. uniform sequence. Even though the process has infinite memory, its value at time 0 depends only on a finite, but random, number of these uniform variables. The algorithm is based on a recent regenerative construction of these measures by Ferrari, Maass, Mart{\'\i}nez and Ney. As applications, we discuss the perfect simulation of binary autoregressions and Markov chains on the unit interval.Comment: 27 pages, one figure. Version accepted by Annals of Applied Probability. Small changes with respect to version