Design and methods of the Longitudinal Eating Disorders Assessment Project research consortium for veterans

Introduction Military service members must maintain a certain body mass index and body fat percentage. Due to weight-loss pressures, some service members may resort to unhealthy behaviors that place them at risk for the development of an eating disorder (ED). Objectives To understand the scope and impact of EDs in military service members and veterans, we formed the Longitudinal Eating Disorders Assessment Project (LEAP) Consortium. LEAP aims to develop novel screening, assessment, classification, and treatment tools for veterans and military members with a focus on EDs and internalizing psychopathology. Methods We recruited two independent nationally representative samples of post-9/11 veterans who were separated from service within the past year. Study 1 was a four-wave longitudinal survey and Study 2 was a mixed-methods study that included surveys, structured-clinical interviews, and qualitative interviews. Results Recruitment samples were representative of the full population of recently separated veterans. Sample weights were created to adjust for sources of non-response bias to the baseline survey. Attrition was low relative to past studies of this population, with only (younger) age predicting attrition at 1-week follow-up. Conclusions We expect that the LEAP Consortium data will contribute to improved information about EDs in veterans, a serious and understudied problem

Summary results of the 2014-2015 DARPA Chikungunya challenge

BACKGROUND: Emerging pathogens such as Zika, chikungunya, Ebola, and dengue viruses are serious threats to national and global health security. Accurate forecasts of emerging epidemics and their severity are critical to minimizing subsequent mortality, morbidity, and economic loss. The recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus to the Americas underscores the need for better methods for disease surveillance and forecasting. METHODS: To explore the suitability of current approaches to forecasting emerging diseases, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) launched the 2014–2015 DARPA Chikungunya Challenge to forecast the number of cases and spread of chikungunya disease in the Americas. Challenge participants (n=38 during final evaluation) provided predictions of chikungunya epidemics across the Americas for a six-month period, from September 1, 2014 to February 16, 2015, to be evaluated by comparison with incidence data reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). This manuscript presents an overview of the challenge and a summary of the approaches used by the winners. RESULTS: Participant submissions were evaluated by a team of non-competing government subject matter experts based on numerical accuracy and methodology. Although this manuscript does not include in-depth analyses of the results, cursory analyses suggest that simpler models appear to outperform more complex approaches that included, for example, demographic information and transportation dynamics, due to the reporting biases, which can be implicitly captured in statistical models. Mosquito-dynamics, population specific information, and dengue-specific information correlated best with prediction accuracy. CONCLUSION: We conclude that with careful consideration and understanding of the relative advantages and disadvantages of particular methods, implementation of an effective prediction system is feasible. However, there is a need to improve the quality of the data in order to more accurately predict the course of epidemics

Ergodicity, Decisions, and Partial Information

In the simplest sequential decision problem for an ergodic stochastic process X, at each time n a decision u_n is made as a function of past observations X_0,...,X_{n-1}, and a loss l(u_n,X_n) is incurred. In this setting, it is known that one may choose (under a mild integrability assumption) a decision strategy whose pathwise time-average loss is asymptotically smaller than that of any other strategy. The corresponding problem in the case of partial information proves to be much more delicate, however: if the process X is not observable, but decisions must be based on the observation of a different process Y, the existence of pathwise optimal strategies is not guaranteed. The aim of this paper is to exhibit connections between pathwise optimal strategies and notions from ergodic theory. The sequential decision problem is developed in the general setting of an ergodic dynamical system (\Omega,B,P,T) with partial information Y\subseteq B. The existence of pathwise optimal strategies grounded in two basic properties: the conditional ergodic theory of the dynamical system, and the complexity of the loss function. When the loss function is not too complex, a general sufficient condition for the existence of pathwise optimal strategies is that the dynamical system is a conditional K-automorphism relative to the past observations \bigvee_n T^n Y. If the conditional ergodicity assumption is strengthened, the complexity assumption can be weakened. Several examples demonstrate the interplay between complexity and ergodicity, which does not arise in the case of full information. Our results also yield a decision-theoretic characterization of weak mixing in ergodic theory, and establish pathwise optimality of ergodic nonlinear filters.Comment: 45 page

Relative Information Loss in the PCA

In this work we analyze principle component analysis (PCA) as a deterministic input-output system. We show that the relative information loss induced by reducing the dimensionality of the data after performing the PCA is the same as in dimensionality reduction without PCA. Finally, we analyze the case where the PCA uses the sample covariance matrix to compute the rotation. If the rotation matrix is not available at the output, we show that an infinite amount of information is lost. The relative information loss is shown to decrease with increasing sample size.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure; extended version of a paper accepted for publicatio

The cost of illness and economic burden of endometriosis and chronic pelvic pain in Australia : a national online survey

Introduction: Endometriosis has a significant cost of illness burden in Europe, UK and the USA, with the majority of costs coming from reductions in productivity. However, information is scarce on if there is a differing impact between endometriosis and other causes of chronic pelvic pain, and if there are modifiable factors, such as pain severity, that may be significant contributors to the overall burden. Methods: An online survey was hosted by SurveyMonkey and the link was active between February to April 2017. Women aged 18–45, currently living in Australia, who had either a confirmed diagnosis of endometriosis via laparoscopy or chronic pelvic pain without a diagnosis of endometriosis were included. The retrospective component of the WERF EndoCost tool was used to determine direct healthcare costs, direct non-healthcare costs (carers) and indirect costs due to productivity loss. Estimates were extrapolated to the Australian population using published prevalence estimates. Results: 407 valid responses were received. The cost of illness burden was significant in women with chronic pelvic pain (Int $16,970 to$ 20,898 per woman per year) irrespective of whether they had a diagnosis of endometriosis. The majority of costs (75–84%) were due to productivity loss. Both absolute and relative productivity costs in Australia were higher than previous estimates based on data from Europe, UK and USA. Pain scores showed the strongest relationship to productivity costs, a 12.5-fold increase in costs between minimal to severe pain. The total economic burden per year in Australia in the reproductive aged population (at 10% prevalence) was 6.50 billion Int $. Conclusion: Similar to studies in European, British and American populations, productivity costs are the greatest contributor to overall costs. Given pain is the most significant contributor, priority should be given to improving pain control in women with pelvic pain