How well do bibliometric indicators correlate with scientific eminence? A comment on Simonton (2016)

Citing an earlier study on eminence in psychology, Simonton (2016) argued that associations between measures of scholars’ reputation, scientific productivity, and citation counts are only small to moderate [Simonton, D. K. (2016). Giving credit where credit’s due: why it’s so hard to do in psychological science. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11, 888-892]. However, this reading is based on partial regression coefficients, which underestimate the joint explanatory power of correlated variables. A reanalysis of the original data showed that a composite bibliometric index was substantially associated with reputation (b = .70, 46% explained variance). Very similar results were obtained with a newly calculated h-index (b = .67, 42% explained variance). While both Simonton’s original analysis and the present reanalysis are inherently limited, the data suggest that the reputation of psychologists tracks their scientific contribution more closely than has been acknowledged in the recent literature

The Effect of Early-Career Recognition on the Subsequent Success: Evidence from the Academy Awards

The research in OB, sociology, management, and even finance has recognized an important effect of prior recognition on achieving career success. However, there is little research on whether the early attainment of such a recognition can affect the degree of subsequent success. Furthermore, the few prior studies on early recognition to date have only inspected the consequences of early recognition in the field of science. The main purpose of this study is to fill this literature gap by broadening the scope of such investigation to the field of motion pictures and more specifically, the Academy awards. We developed four hypotheses addressing the effect of early recognition (i.e., nomination for Oscar award) on different success measures of performing artists, including future productivity, quality of the roles, and the subsequent award nominations. Using a sample of 438 Academy awards nominees, we showed that, relative to those who received recognition later in their careers, actors and actresses who were nominated in the earlier stages of their careers were more successful later in terms of the number of movies they starred in, the importance or quality of their roles, and the subsequent awards and nominations they received. In addition, younger nominees were shown to have higher chances of receiving another Oscar nomination following their initial nomination. Thus, early recognition is positively related to future career success not only in science but also in other fields. These findings have important practical implications to both individuals seeking to build a successful career and to other social actors (organizations, recruiters, agents, etc.), who should consider such findings for identifying and selecting competent candidates based on their prior records and make more accurate predictions about a person’s potential for achieving future success

Relation of early career performance and recognition to the probability of winning the Nobel Prize in economics

To explore the relation between early career performance or recognition and receiving the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, we compare winners of the John Bates Clark Medal, the most prestigious early career recognition for economists, with other successful scholars. The initial comparison combines JBCM winners with scholars published in leading economics journals, controlling for educational background (institution conferring the Ph.D.) and publication and citation success. We then narrow the comparison group down to those given relatively early recognition (based on age category) in the form of other major awards. Lastly, we compare the JBCM awardees with synthetic counterfactuals that best resemble their pre-award academic career performance. All three analyses provide strong support for the notion that winning the JBCM is related to receiving the Nobel Prize, the award of which is also correlated with early career performance success as measured by number of publications and citations

Relation of early career performance and recognition to the probability of winning the Nobel Prize in economics

© 2017, Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. To explore the relation between early career performance or recognition and receiving the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, we compare winners of the John Bates Clark Medal, the most prestigious early career recognition for economists, with other successful scholars. The initial comparison combines JBCM winners with scholars published in leading economics journals, controlling for educational background (institution conferring the Ph.D.) and publication and citation success. We then narrow the comparison group down to those given relatively early recognition (based on age category) in the form of other major awards. Lastly, we compare the JBCM awardees with synthetic counterfactuals that best resemble their pre-award academic career performance. All three analyses provide strong support for the notion that winning the JBCM is related to receiving the Nobel Prize, the award of which is also correlated with early career performance success as measured by number of publications and citations