Bit-Vector Model Counting using Statistical Estimation

Approximate model counting for bit-vector SMT formulas (generalizing \#SAT) has many applications such as probabilistic inference and quantitative information-flow security, but it is computationally difficult. Adding random parity constraints (XOR streamlining) and then checking satisfiability is an effective approximation technique, but it requires a prior hypothesis about the model count to produce useful results. We propose an approach inspired by statistical estimation to continually refine a probabilistic estimate of the model count for a formula, so that each XOR-streamlined query yields as much information as possible. We implement this approach, with an approximate probability model, as a wrapper around an off-the-shelf SMT solver or SAT solver. Experimental results show that the implementation is faster than the most similar previous approaches which used simpler refinement strategies. The technique also lets us model count formulas over floating-point constraints, which we demonstrate with an application to a vulnerability in differential privacy mechanisms

Some Speed-Ups and Speed Limits for Real Algebraic Geometry

We give new positive and negative results (some conditional) on speeding up computational algebraic geometry over the reals: (1) A new and sharper upper bound on the number of connected components of a semialgebraic set. Our bound is novel in that it is stated in terms of the volumes of certain polytopes and, for a large class of inputs, beats the best previous bounds by a factor exponential in the number of variables. (2) A new algorithm for approximating the real roots of certain sparse polynomial systems. Two features of our algorithm are (a) arithmetic complexity polylogarithmic in the degree of the underlying complex variety (as opposed to the super-linear dependence in earlier algorithms) and (b) a simple and efficient generalization to certain univariate exponential sums. (3) Detecting whether a real algebraic surface (given as the common zero set of some input straight-line programs) is not smooth can be done in polynomial time within the classical Turing model (resp. BSS model over C) only if P=NP (resp. NP<=BPP). The last result follows easily from an unpublished result of Steve Smale.Comment: This is the final journal version which will appear in Journal of Complexity. More typos are corrected, and a new section is added where the bounds here are compared to an earlier result of Benedetti, Loeser, and Risler. The LaTeX source needs the ajour.cls macro file to compil

A Bayesian information criterion for singular models

We consider approximate Bayesian model choice for model selection problems that involve models whose Fisher-information matrices may fail to be invertible along other competing submodels. Such singular models do not obey the regularity conditions underlying the derivation of Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the penalty structure in BIC generally does not reflect the frequentist large-sample behavior of their marginal likelihood. While large-sample theory for the marginal likelihood of singular models has been developed recently, the resulting approximations depend on the true parameter value and lead to a paradox of circular reasoning. Guided by examples such as determining the number of components of mixture models, the number of factors in latent factor models or the rank in reduced-rank regression, we propose a resolution to this paradox and give a practical extension of BIC for singular model selection problems

S2: An Efficient Graph Based Active Learning Algorithm with Application to Nonparametric Classification

This paper investigates the problem of active learning for binary label prediction on a graph. We introduce a simple and label-efficient algorithm called S2 for this task. At each step, S2 selects the vertex to be labeled based on the structure of the graph and all previously gathered labels. Specifically, S2 queries for the label of the vertex that bisects the *shortest shortest* path between any pair of oppositely labeled vertices. We present a theoretical estimate of the number of queries S2 needs in terms of a novel parametrization of the complexity of binary functions on graphs. We also present experimental results demonstrating the performance of S2 on both real and synthetic data. While other graph-based active learning algorithms have shown promise in practice, our algorithm is the first with both good performance and theoretical guarantees. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of the S2 algorithm to the theory of nonparametric active learning. In particular, we show that S2 achieves near minimax optimal excess risk for an important class of nonparametric classification problems.Comment: A version of this paper appears in the Conference on Learning Theory (COLT) 201