4 research outputs found
Combining Search, Social Media, and Traditional Data Sources to Improve Influenza Surveillance
We present a machine learning-based methodology capable of providing
real-time ("nowcast") and forecast estimates of influenza activity in the US by
leveraging data from multiple data sources including: Google searches, Twitter
microblogs, nearly real-time hospital visit records, and data from a
participatory surveillance system. Our main contribution consists of combining
multiple influenza-like illnesses (ILI) activity estimates, generated
independently with each data source, into a single prediction of ILI utilizing
machine learning ensemble approaches. Our methodology exploits the information
in each data source and produces accurate weekly ILI predictions for up to four
weeks ahead of the release of CDC's ILI reports. We evaluate the predictive
ability of our ensemble approach during the 2013-2014 (retrospective) and
2014-2015 (live) flu seasons for each of the four weekly time horizons. Our
ensemble approach demonstrates several advantages: (1) our ensemble method's
predictions outperform every prediction using each data source independently,
(2) our methodology can produce predictions one week ahead of GFT's real-time
estimates with comparable accuracy, and (3) our two and three week forecast
estimates have comparable accuracy to real-time predictions using an
autoregressive model. Moreover, our results show that considerable insight is
gained from incorporating disparate data streams, in the form of social media
and crowd sourced data, into influenza predictions in all time horizon