Hospital Length of Stay Prediction based on Patient Examination Using General features

As of the year 2020, Indonesia has the fourth most populous country in the world. With Indonesia’s population expected to continuously grow, the increase in provision of healthcare needs to match its steady population growth. Hospitals are central in providing healthcare to the general masses, especially for patients requiring medical attention for an extended period of time. Length of Stay (LOS), or inpatient treatment, covers various treatments that are offered by hospitals, such as medical examination, diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation. Generally, hospitals determine the LOS by calculating the difference between the number of admissions and the number of discharges. However, this procedure is shown to be unproductive for some hospitals. A cost-effective way to improve the productivity of hospital is to utilize Information Technology (IT).  In this paper, we create a system for predicting LOS using Neural Network (NN) using a sample of 3055 subjects, consisting of 30 input attributes and 1 output attribute. The NN default parameter experiment and parameter optimization with grid search as well as random search were carried out. Our results show that parameter optimization using the grid search technique give the highest performance results with an accuracy of 94.7403% on parameters with a value of Epoch 50, hidden unit 52, batch size 4000, Adam optimizer, and linear activation. Our designated system can be utilised by hospitals in improving their effectiveness and efficiency, owing to better prediction of LOS and better visualization of LOS done by web visualization

Analyzing historical and future acute neurosurgical demand using an AI-enabled predictive dashboard

Characterizing acute service demand is critical for neurosurgery and other emergency-dominant specialties in order to dynamically distribute resources and ensure timely access to treatment. This is especially important in the post-Covid 19 pandemic period, when healthcare centers are grappling with a record backlog of pending surgical procedures and rising acute referral numbers. Healthcare dashboards are well-placed to analyze this data, making key information about service and clinical outcomes available to staff in an easy-to-understand format. However, they typically provide insights based on inference rather than prediction, limiting their operational utility. We retrospectively analyzed and prospectively forecasted acute neurosurgical referrals, based on 10,033 referrals made to a large volume tertiary neurosciences center in London, U.K., from the start of the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown period until October 2021 through the use of a novel AI-enabled predictive dashboard. As anticipated, weekly referral volumes significantly increased during this period, largely owing to an increase in spinal referrals (p < 0.05). Applying validated time-series forecasting methods, we found that referrals were projected to increase beyond this time-point, with Prophet demonstrating the best test and computational performance. Using a mixed-methods approach, we determined that a dashboard approach was usable, feasible, and acceptable among key stakeholders

Recursive neural networks in hospital bed occupancy forecasting

Abstract Background Efficient planning of hospital bed usage is a necessary condition to minimize the hospital costs. In the presented work we deal with the problem of occupancy forecasting in the scale of several months, with a focus on personnel’s holiday planning. Methods We construct a model based on a set of recursive neural networks, which performs an occupancy prediction using historical admission and release data combined with external factors such as public and school holidays. The model requires no personal information on patients or staff. It is optimized for a 60 days forecast during the summer season (May–September). Results An average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.24% was computed on 8 validation sets. Conclusions The proposed machine learning model has shown to be competitive to standard time-series forecasting models and can be recommended for incorporation in medium-size hospitals automatized scheduling and decision making