Cognitive effort in the Beauty Contest Game

This paper analyzes cognitive effort in 6 different one-shot p-beauty games. We use both Raven and Cognitive Reflection tests to identify subjects' abilities. We find that the Raven test does not provide any insight on beauty contest game playing but CRT does: subjects with higher scores on this test are more prone to play dominant strategies.Beauty Contest Game, Raven, Cognitive Reflection Test

As if a Raven by Yvonne Blomer

A review of As if a Raven by Yvonne Blomer

Book Review: Biologic Psychiatry for the Biologist

PSYCHOPHARMACOLOGY: THE THIRD GENERATION OF PROGRESS Edited by Herbert Y. Meltzer, M.D .New York, Raven Press, 1987 1824 pages, $160.0

Channels’ Confirmation and Predictions’ Confirmation: From the Medical Test to the Raven Paradox

After long arguments between positivism and falsificationism, the verification of universal hypotheses was replaced with the confirmation of uncertain major premises. Unfortunately, Hemple proposed the Raven Paradox. Then, Carnap used the increment of logical probability as the confirmation measure. So far, many confirmation measures have been proposed. Measure F proposed by Kemeny and Oppenheim among them possesses symmetries and asymmetries proposed by Elles and Fitelson, monotonicity proposed by Greco et al., and normalizing property suggested by many researchers. Based on the semantic information theory, a measure b* similar to F is derived from the medical test. Like the likelihood ratio, measures b* and F can only indicate the quality of channels or the testing means instead of the quality of probability predictions. Furthermore, it is still not easy to use b*, F, or another measure to clarify the Raven Paradox. For this reason, measure c* similar to the correct rate is derived. Measure c* supports the Nicod Criterion and undermines the Equivalence Condition, and hence, can be used to eliminate the Raven Paradox. An example indicates that measures F and b* are helpful for diagnosing the infection of Novel Coronavirus, whereas most popular confirmation measures are not. Another example reveals that all popular confirmation measures cannot be used to explain that a black raven can confirm “Ravens are black” more strongly than a piece of chalk. Measures F, b*, and c* indicate that the existence of fewer counterexamples is more important than more positive examples’ existence, and hence, are compatible with Popper’s falsification thought

Winter Ecology of Common Ravens in Southern Wyoming and the Effects of Raven Removal on Greater Sage-Grouse Populations

My research focused on common raven (Corvus corax; hereafter raven) winter ecology and removal, and how raven removal aids Greater sage-grouse (Centrocerus urophasiansu; hereafter sage-grouse) populations. Raven winter ecology in the western US has not been described in detail. I researched raven use of landfills for foraging and raven use of anthropogenic structures for roosting, as well as dispersal of ravens in the spring. In all 22% of radio-marked ravens (n=73) used landfills during the day, and 68%(n=73) roosted at anthropogenic roost sites during the evening. Correlations between landfill and roost counts of ravens were stronger (0.4\u3err20 km. In the spring, ravens dispersed, on average, 38 km from landfills where they were caught. Large congregations of ravens at a few sites in winter may present opportunities to initiate raven population reduction methods to alleviate later problems. I analyzed raven survival and behaviour when USDA/APHIS Wildlife Services (WS) removed ravens using DRC-1339 during winter months. The number of ravens killed annually was 7-34% of the local population. Ravens did not avoid landfills, yet they switched roosts more frequently after an application of the toxicant. Raven removal improves sage-grouse nest success; however, data were not available to examine how raven removal improves sage-grouse abundance. I analyzed changes in raven density with regard to WS removal, and then related these changes with changes in sage-grouse lek counts the following year. Raven densities decreased by 50% from 2008-2014 where WS conducted removal programs. Sage-grouse lek counts improved in area where WS lowered raven abundance, in comparison to areas farther away, during the latter half of the study (2013-2015), when WS removal efforts intensified. Thereafter, a 10% decline in raven abundance was associated with a 2% increase in sage-grouse lek counts. Overall, ravens in souther Wyoming used anthropogenic resources during the winter, and removal of ravens at these locations, combined with removal in the spring, minimally impacted raven populations annually and was associated with increases in sage-grouse abundance

Raven Control from a Conservation Biology Perspective

The common raven (Corvus corax; raven) is a large, highly intelligent passerine songbird with a Holarctic distribution attributable to a high degree of plasticity in its foraging and nesting behavior. Historically, ravens have received special attention in human culture, being either respected or vilified. In the western United States, ravens are exploiting the expanding human enterprise, which provides them with unintended subsidies of food, water, and breeding locations, allowing ravens to expand their range and increase in population density and resulting in raven depredation threatening species of conservation concern. From a conservation biology perspective, increased raven populations present a difficult challenge in managing human–wildlife conflict. Some raven control measures are effective empirically but present ethical dilemmas, are economically expensive, or are socially divisive. Current studies seek to better understand raven population dynamics in relation to human land use and to identify socially acceptable ways to ameliorate raven impacts on biodiversity in the American West. The purpose of this paper is to provide readers with summaries of important constraints in the search for how to address deleterious effects of an expanding raven population. Specifically, I describe ethical, legal, social, and biological constraints in relation to calls for lethal control of ravens. Despite these constraints, a conservation strategy may emerge through modeling the relationship between raven presence and reproduction of sensitive prey species, and developing a clearer understanding of raven ecology. Papers in this special issue explore raven population dynamics, conservation consequences, and conservation solutions in detail and reveal innovative ways to address the complex human–wildlife conflict presented by ravens

A Desert Tortoise–Common Raven Viable Conflict Threshold

Since 1966, common raven (Corvus corax; raven) abundance has increased throughout much of this species’ Holarctic distribution, fueled by an ever-expanding supply of anthropogenic resource subsidies (e.g., water, food, shelter, and nesting substrate) to ecoregion specific raven population carrying capacities. Consequently, ravens are implicated in declines of both avian and reptilian species of conservation concern, including the California (USA) endangered and federally threatened Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii; desert tortoise). While ravens are a natural predator of desert tortoises, the inter-generational stability of desert tortoise populations is expected to be compromised as annual juvenile survival is suppressed below 0.77 through a combination of raven depredation and other sources of mortality. To estimate the extent to which raven depredation suppresses desert tortoise recruitment within the Mojave Desert of California, we collected data from 274 variable-radius point counts, 78 desert tortoise decoy stations, and 8 control stations during the spring of 2020. Additionally, we complied a geodatabase of previously active raven nests, observed between 2013 and 2020. Raven density estimates from 4 monitoring areas ranged between 0.63 (eastern most) and 2.44 (western most) raven km-2 (95% CI: 0.35–1.14 and 1.33–4.48, respectively). We used a Bayesian shared frailty model to estimate the effects of raven density and distance to the nearest previously active raven nest on the annual “survival” of juvenile desert tortoise decoys (75-mm Midline Carapace Length), which we then converted into survival estimates for 0- to 10-year-old desert tortoises by adjusting exposure to reflect natural activity patterns. At the 1.72-km median distance from the nearest previously active raven nest, the estimated annual survival of desert tortoises decreased as raven density increased, ranging among conservation areas from 0.774 (eastern most) to 0.733 (western most). Accordingly, our model predicts that desert tortoise populations exposed to raven densities in excess of 0.89 raven km-2, at a distanc

A Pale Gold Raven and Other Poems

Poe\u27s The Raven\u27 and Other Poems was a collection of some of the best verse of his career. This collection of my own verse is definitely not of the same quality, but the logological constraints followed should be of interest to readers